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China: These Trade Numbers Are Awful

This is where the idea that China is relatively insulated from a global downturn came from, an article by a UBS economist: www.allroadsleadtochin.... I have the sneaking suspicion that Professor Pettis isn't aware of this article as I've never seen him offering a rebuttal.

Mr. Anderson (lawl teh matrix?) argues that when looked at in value-added terms, the amount of Chinese economic growth supplied for by the export sector is actually quite minimal, especially when compared to countries like Taiwan and South Korea. The fact that Taiwan and South Korea are already experiencing economic contraction, while China is not provides evidence for this contention.

If you hold on to the limited-export-damage theory, then you need alternatives to explain why the Chinese economy has been doing so horribly as of late. I've seen arguments that what really did the Chinese economy in was the collapse of the real estate market and a major decline in investment. There's also arguments that the collapse of the export sector has influenced consumer confidence, and if I understand the Professor correctly, part of it has to do with the Chinese money supply.