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  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]
    The 7% SnP return figure likely runs back into the early 1990s however it is suggested that something like a 1987 black monday event could trigger XIV termination.

    Thus if black swans come around every 30 years or so then trouble could be ahead. However, XIV survived all other daily crashes it seems (in simulations).
    Jul 9, 2015. 09:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scouring China Wreckage For Bargains  [View instapost]
    Chris and Dane thank you for the feedback. I've been burned in the past but I mainly made a mistake of position sizing, one I'm not apt to repeat. I will indeed look deeper at this one.
    Jul 8, 2015. 09:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Scouring China Wreckage For Bargains  [View instapost]
    Chris, is your fund in this one? How many hours of DD did it take to get comfortable with this idea given the locale? Smart guys (Heckman, Greenberg) have been burned by China and some say even Buffett has made a misstep with BYD?

    ""This company has a legitimate management team.""
    Jul 8, 2015. 05:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aetna - A Crony Of Crony Capitalism - On Sale  [View article]

    Another great article and I do think the deal risk is small. Imho, the large spread is likely a function of the time it will take the deal to close which many be year(s). Rightly or wrongly, in a market that has compounded near 20% the past 5 years, there seems to be the expectation of a high opportunity cost when tying up one's capital. However, I suspect in retrospect this trade will outperform the indexes with less risk.
    Jul 8, 2015. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV And High-Beta Investments In Bull Markets  [View article]
    Nice article. I've seen backtests of XIV going back decade(s) using synthetic data. It would be great if someone did the same with the leveraged ETFs and then compared the two over their 15+ hypothetical performance.
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]
    Here's a great alternative take. Again I'll suggest that if one keeps position sizing small - let's say low single digit - that's your maximum risk. Outside of the ETN shutting down completely you can expect that it would recover in time. Not to mention buying it on any 25-50% dips has been very profitable in the past.
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Beta: The World's #1 Passive Fund  [View article]

    Do you have to live in Nevada to choose a Nevada 529 and does the $370,000 limit apply to all 529s regardless of State?
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bull On The Russian Bear  [View instapost]
    The random risk does indeed exist - see link. However, this seems like a great trade.
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]

    I think anyone who holds XIV should be prepared for a drawdown of 80% or more. However, I also suspect it will go on to new highs over time. This one works in the long term but in the short run traders can get wiped out. Position sizing is key.
    Jul 8, 2015. 01:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]

    Imho, you should have just posted the links to your top stock ideas. I think you were a bet aggressive in your last response. However, you do have some good stock ideas.
    Jul 3, 2015. 11:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]
    Personally, I don't think it's a big deal if some link drops an article here and there - as long it's investment based. Easy enough to skip over it if I have no interest.

    Now, if I clicked on the author's comments and someone did it dozens of times that's different but a few times of dropping a link should be allowed, imho.

    I've actually discovered some good SA authors this way.
    Jul 3, 2015. 03:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]

    I agree with you. However much of what you suggest can be mitigated with position sizing. Also I should add that my above post was hypothetical since XIV has only existed for 4+ years but is up 4x already thus it does seem like it could be a 10x with a long enough horizon.

    For XIV, I asked myself what size I can accept, knowing that it could temporarily lose 90% and be underwater for years, but probably end up a big winner if I hold for a decade or so. My personal plan is to hold forever on this one and add a bit here or there over the years on any 50-75% drawdowns if they occur.
    Jul 1, 2015. 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World  [View article]

    You might enjoy this below article. Shows that XIV was up 18x in under 10 years...and it's up another 50% since Oct. 2013. Thus close to a 27x return in 11+ years for those who held (or added) during the swan dives, which will surely occur again.
    Jul 1, 2015. 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is The Largest Position That I Have Ever Taken?  [View instapost]

    Are you still rolling puts on this one. What type of return to date have you've realized on this trade relative to invested/risked capital? I suspect it's much more than the 35% drop since late 2012.
    Jul 1, 2015. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 1 Page Portfolio Plan  [View article]

    Do any of your strategies lend themselves well to margin (or even using leveraged etfs)?

    If some strategies have double digit returns and low drawdowns in most/all the monte carlo simulations can we then expect that they would be a good candidate for leverage?
    Jul 1, 2015. 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment