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bazooooka

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  • Axion Power Concentrator 382: Nov. 22, 2014 [View instapost]
    Bob,

    Based on your conversations with DDG are you bullish on Axion's prospects and common stock?

    Or are you just hoping to get repaid your loan and then wash your hands of what must have been a decade long journey that has taken many turns?
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:08 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 382: Nov. 22, 2014 [View instapost]
    Rugg,

    Don't worry this Reg FD leak (ahem, cough, cough ) didn't create any new demand, still plenty of dirt cheap shares. I expect that to continue.
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:03 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 382: Nov. 22, 2014 [View instapost]
    "Bunch" could many, many, dozens, hundreds etc. I'd met it was non material or DDG wouldn't have mentioned it. Also, not so sure it was even a sale. Maybe a courtesy sampler to entice later sales?
    Dec 4, 2014. 04:02 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 382: Nov. 22, 2014 [View instapost]
    Or they just sent some PbCs over for shop testing. Maybe the end user wanted control of sending them to an independent lab and back? Sounds like the old TG type rumblings and I'd think a, truck fleet test, if ever, could be years(s) off.
    Dec 4, 2014. 03:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro: What Competition? Part 2 [View article]
    Joe,

    Pretend next year that GoPro is at 30B fully diluted market cap (i.e. a double from here thus making this article timely). But at what point does your article lose merit; is the stock always a good price forever? My point is your article did not talk about valuation at all, it was more along the lines of good company = good stock. But that's not always true.

    Regardless of a great product, there is only so much "potential" in anything. GoPro will need Revenues above 5B in the not too distant future to make the current market cap justifiable.

    And if market cap were to double again then Revenues should be in the 10B+ range before decade end. That seems like a tall order for a company doing only 1B+ in revenues with only 30%+ expected top line growth. I'd love your article if the stock was still close to its IPO price. However at near 4x IPO pricing I'd wait on better pricing.
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi Rights Remain Overpriced And Drift Lower: The Market Is Efficient [View article]
    As far as news events, sales and reimbursement numbers around the world is what I'd look for - usually will have to wait on the quarterly updates. Also MS blogs and even Pharma salesperson blogs provide insights.

    And I'd think "maximum" effort would be needed to keep the lawsuit without merit. Right now FDA approval was only a postponed event. I'm not sure the lawsuits hold water if the first sales milestone is ultimately hit since much of the pps is/was based on that milestone.
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sanofi Rights Remain Overpriced And Drift Lower: The Market Is Efficient [View article]
    Anthony,

    I think you make a great argument why the CVRs will be acquired to mitigate payouts. But I don't think there will be any slowing of the sales ramps. I'd think it is possible that there are 80% profit margins here. And I suspect Sanofi will wait till they have more data to determine how they will handle outstanding CVRs. As you suggest the BIG payouts are years away and there is plenty of time, if ever, before Sanofi will have to worry about milestones 2-4.
    Dec 3, 2014. 06:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    There's also the fact that profits will affect their market cap. And cash flow is needed to fund the pipeline for other drugs. It seems risks to try to game a 400M payout when they can mitigate that by buying up some CVRs anyhow. Its a high class problem and I suspect they are aiming for above 5% of the MS market let alone 1% over the next 5 years. To ramp like that they need to be aggressive right now.
    Dec 3, 2014. 04:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Idea For 2014: Sanofi Rights Post-FDA Approval [View article]
    A few pharma reps I've know told me their annual quotas were in the many millions. However, those weren't specialty drugs.
    Dec 3, 2014. 04:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For GoPro [View article]
    Some think the market cap should be closer to 3B as you suggest but the truth it is actually well above 10B fully diluted and had been as high as 15B.
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Idea For 2014: Sanofi Rights Post-FDA Approval [View article]
    Even 6 every 3 months gets us well over 2000.
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Idea For 2014: Sanofi Rights Post-FDA Approval [View article]
    Gross margins might be that high but the net margins I'd think are under 50%. Salesforce personnel and logistics can be expensive.

    I'd think the legal ramifications of trying to slow supply to game the milestones might not be worth the game.

    Also if 1000 people were to choose other options during a slow roll out some of those revenues would be lost forever.


    http://nyti.ms/12oBY7D
    Dec 2, 2014. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Christmas Book Ideas [View instapost]
    Some nice reads in there.
    Dec 2, 2014. 06:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7 Fat Years Of Event-Driven Investing [View article]
    This article is one of your best. And worth a reread or two.
    Dec 2, 2014. 02:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Idea For 2014: Sanofi Rights Post-FDA Approval [View article]
    I'd hear that speciality drugs can be in 20%-40% margin range and can be a bonanza. It would be great to know for certain but I doubt we can get that granular level of detail.

    http://bit.ly/1ty6m5Q
    Dec 2, 2014. 01:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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