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bazooooka

bazooooka
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  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    It seems there is more than 200 MS centers. But how many are up and running right now? 2000+ patients seems like a small number if you assume every center has at least 10+ candidates.

    Right now I think only a handful of centers are treating patients; I'd expect the treatment landscape to be much different come Summer.

    http://bit.ly/1E72rWc
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVRs - The Good, The Bad And The Ugly [View article]
    Here is a nice primer on CVRs.

    http://bit.ly/19GJ3Mg
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tracking David Einhorn's Portfolio - Q4 2014 Update [View article]
    The value of Einhorn is more likely to be seen in sideways markets. A real pro can produce returns against the tide and often limit large drawdowns. Another 30-50% drawdown in the SnP would wipe out most of the bulls gains thus a steady 10-20% often wins the race.
    Feb 18, 2015. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best Long Opportunity For The Remaining Days Of 2012: Ocean Shore Holding [View article]
    Hmm; 13D is even better. I'll bet along with Chris (and team) anyday.
    Feb 18, 2015. 05:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hidden Annualized 66% Return: Uroplasty Inc. And Vision-Sciences To Merge [View article]
    Maude,

    What's your current take now that the market caps are similar. Would you expect the deal to be altered or called off?
    Feb 18, 2015. 03:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    si9, Great points; the enrolled patients (if disclosed) will indeed be more important than just the Q1 infused numbers. Sounds like you work in the field. Please keep us abreast of any insights you have about the ramp up.
    Feb 13, 2015. 06:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fun Cars For Free Care Of NHTSA [View instapost]
    And for those who have older ones you might want to check your VIN.

    http://bit.ly/1Ah7ZgY
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Chris does similar diligence go into your CVR plays? It seems predicting early sales ramps is almost impossible without deep resources and contacts. I assume the CVR exists since those plays are so hard to handicap.
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattersight Reports Strong Q4 Business Activity [View article]
    Mark,

    Yes cash flow is negative now and you're right that's not an immediate concern but at some point it could be. Do you expect another capital raise sooner than later? And what's your expectations for share count growth on its way to a .5B valuation?
    Feb 12, 2015. 05:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattersight Reports Strong Q4 Business Activity [View article]
    Mark,

    The question was more about "burn rate". I have no problem with the hiring or lack of profits in the short term.

    The idea that MATR "can ramp up to achieve 50-60% annual growth" seems more fairy tale than reality for now.

    However, if they can ramp to the 60M run rate by 2016 I'd then be inclined to think this has triple potential. Right now I fear dilution since their expenses exceed their revenues.
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mattersight Reports Strong Q4 Business Activity [View article]
    Mark,

    Do you think they can get their burn rate under control? Right now SGA eats up all the revenues alone. 5x+ sales multiple seems very generous for the modest growth they've shown thus far.

    However, the nod and wink to the unofficial 60M revenue guidance by year end 2016 could justify these premium ratios assuming expenses can be controlled without dilution. Adding 20 new employees won't have come without significant near term costs so I'd think break even might not be in the cards for the next several quarters.
    Feb 12, 2015. 05:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scarlett Johansson Was Right About SodaStream [View article]
    If SODA can find the right marketing mix for their US based consumers then this can be a growth story. Even right now its valuation seems fair with optionality on upside once they learn how convey their green/health/taste message. As they design sleeker devices and get more prominent retail displays I think this could trade for 3-4x sales and potentially attract takeover interest.
    Feb 12, 2015. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Immigration Reform With American Apparel [View article]
    The new CEO seems impressive and they will be saving tens of Millions in legal fees by moving away from Charney's provocations. Also the turned down a take private of $1.20 so I see only upside from here. Not to mention if they ever get production costs under control this could be a multibagger. For now I think they'd stay in the US and build up their E Commerce where they can still leverage their imagery. But if Irving/Charney get control thats not the worst thing either but multibagger will be off the table although it still could be a 50-100% gain.

    http://bit.ly/1IY3uw3
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    Sam,

    You speculated/traded on the hopes of a bounce in pps and oil based on the idea they had fallen far and fast. If you continue to do this you will find some that will fall further (even to zero) and faster on occasion. I'd say you were lucky and you'd be better of spreading your plays and avoiding stocks that have the potential to go BK. For example, there were plenty who thought they bought the bottom in Radio Shack but the real bottom is zero. The energy sector is likely to have more than a few casualties.
    Feb 11, 2015. 11:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Discount Bill Ackman [View article]
    Assuming a market hiccup is sooner than later, who do you think will maintain NAV (or lose less) if the broad markets go sideways to negative. Einhorn has a reputation as a savvy short seller. Do you trust Loeb and Ackman to the same degree?
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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