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bazooooka

bazooooka
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  • GoPro And The Chinese Competition [View article]
    Joe how did you average in below $39? Did you get in on the IPO or did you do all of your buying the first day or so? Would you average down if it ever gets to $35 or lower?
    Mar 10, 2015. 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro And The Chinese Competition [View article]
    Joe,

    I disagree. More and more people are paying out of pocket with phones as contract and subsidies go away. I also am an Android guy and have owned many HTC and Samsung phones and paid full prices from $200-$400 which was still a ton cheaper than Apple (albeit I do see why Apple can get a premium).

    I think you will find that the Xiaomi's and HTCs of the world will make reliable cameras that are just as good as GoPro at half the cost. And this will indeed hurt GoPro on their international growth ambitions. That being said I don't view the stock as a screaming short like I did when you and I first engage many months back.
    Mar 10, 2015. 08:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro And The Chinese Competition [View article]
    Joe,

    Since you are an Android user (Samsung?) you likely are aware that you can get a pretty good phone for $300, or even $100 That makes it even more surprising that you don't see similar forces coming after GoPro's margins. Xiaomi represents this new type of competitor, in phones and cameras, and they will beat most on price. And although they won't make much profit themselves, they'll sure make it hard for their competitor's to profit. I'm surprised you don't think margins will be challenged in the next year(s).

    http://bit.ly/1Mo2gXf
    Mar 10, 2015. 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is A Vote Worth? [View instapost]
    Chris,

    Is GTN rumored as an acquisition target? In a take-out does the gap between shares classes close to zero?
    Mar 10, 2015. 02:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Significantly Increased My Lumber Liquidators Short Position In The Last Two Days [View article]
    Eric,

    Please post any voicemails or emails you have (names redacted). Your comment seems farfetched.
    Mar 9, 2015. 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro And The Chinese Competition [View article]
    Yes,

    Joe if Android hardware can grab 83% market share, largely on low prices alone, then it seems likely GoPro will also have a tough time maintaining 50% market share in action cameras as their will be similar competitive forces at work.

    Also we keep coming back to the idea that GoPro is not Apple (ie GoPro is largely known for the hardware) so when GoPro loses market share they won't be able to make it up on margins and a huge addressable market.

    If/when many oems get into the knock-off camera hardware game GoPro will lose both market share and PROFITs since their GoPro software is not a competitive advantage. This seems to be happening already as you've mentioned a pretty decent sub $100 camera and I'm sure other entrants are coming.

    Heck, if Apple ever comes into action cameras, and can match GoPro on price, then its likely game over. Apple would make GoPro software look archaic; imho. I'd think GoPro would maybe do best to sell out like Beats did. The next few years will be interesting and I'll keep an eye out for your columns.
    Mar 9, 2015. 09:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro And The Chinese Competition [View article]
    Joe,

    Wouldn't you agree that the IPhone is far superior to all other phones? However, take a look at Android market share internationally. http://bit.ly/1CWtjcp

    Do you really think the GoPro brand is so premium that it will be able to meet its future growth forecasts which are dependent on international sales?
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing GoPro's State Of Business And Stock [View article]
    Stan,

    I do like growth stocks on occasion, and have done well with them. And even would pay 50 times earnings for a company that had a clear path to 30%+ 5 year growth. But not for GoPro; GoPro will have a problem producing the revenues and margins to justify its market cap. That was especially true when I started to post these things 100% above current pps.

    Now, I'm more inclined to wait and see as it approaches the mid 30 range and I don't suggest initiating a short here. Sure, maybe some retail IPOers will get antsy soon, since they've lost all their easy gains, but like I said above, this is a trader's stock right now and should be treated as such. However, those who are bullish long term could do worse then enter this name now - although patience has been the right call for those with such a mindset.
    Mar 9, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha's Positioning For 2014 Update [View instapost]
    Chris does a great job of sniffing out community bank stocks primed for takeovers.

    However outside of riding Mr. Demuth Jr.'s coattails =) I've found that small retail guys can also emulate Tim Melvin.

    There's still plenty of meat on the bone ion many of these plays. Hopefully these strategies don't become too widespread.

    http://bit.ly/1wfKHqh
    Mar 8, 2015. 05:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing GoPro's State Of Business And Stock [View article]
    It appears the market and the short interest are handicapping the likelihood of compound earnings growth of 25% or more with the pps move from the 80s in 2014 to the 40s today. Maybe some skepticism about future growth and margins in order. Any missed estimates over the next 4+ years could easily be on the downside.

    "with prospects for 20-30% growth over the next several years"
    Mar 8, 2015. 03:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Using a "Mar," search is a good way to read the recent ones of the month. Doubtful that any given month gets past 200 comments and usually much less.
    Mar 7, 2015. 11:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro's CEO Is Stoked... But Selling [View article]
    lzl,

    You may find that there are many that can make a competitive, even superior camera, for way less than $400. The $64 camera referenced above is better than entry level GoPros that cost near 3 times as much. And its even better than what GoPro had as top of the line not long ago. Also it won't be one competitor but many; similar to how Android has dozens (if not hundreds) of oems, that will pressure GoPro sales and margins. Time will tell if they have the marketing brand (and deep wallets) to withstand the onslaught; especially overseas. Short interest in the stock suggest many think that GoPro may have already seen its glory days.
    Mar 7, 2015. 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Might Be Time To Buy Volatility [View article]
    Vix index yes. But XIV seems to be a good vehicle to make money while VIX does its walking dead routine as spring and especially summer doldrums get closer.
    Mar 7, 2015. 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing GoPro's State Of Business And Stock [View article]
    Joe,

    I'd suggest if you don't have a strong opinion about the future earnings potential than you might want to stick with stocks that trade 15-20 times current earnings. Also, you won't find very many stocks that trade at a 10 P/E on forward 4+ year projections.

    Note even a 20 P/E on Dec 2016 earnings, which is 20+ months away, only gets you to the low 30s. Which I why many think this stock will trade in the 30s short term. I agree the bottom is closer but a run back to $60 doesn't seem like a 2015 event and it still would be much lower than where you first wrote up this stock in late 2014. Gopro is a trader's stock.
    Mar 7, 2015. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Assessing GoPro's State Of Business And Stock [View article]
    Joe,

    Note: if it does fall 50% it would take 300% to get back to the $60 level.

    $30-35 could be in play and that still would be trading at 10 times predicted 2019 earnings. To pay much more than that for earnings that are 3+ years away sure gets speculative.
    Mar 7, 2015. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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