Bang, many believe flooded sales alone can be 15-20M in 2012. It is likely they will break 8M this year. To me that is more then "air" and can justify a market cap of 1.5x-2x 2012 sales. As for the PbC I bet Rosewater and Viridity see some traction in 2012. NS and BMW are also in the wings near term. As far as getting a major order from the Big 3, that might still be years away but I don't think anyone ever thought it wasn't. Also think about all the other irons in the fire that we likely aren't privy to (yet).
Don't lose your conviction and keep some powder dry. Now that this stock screams bargain I'm willing to mention it to family and friends. SS is almost done selling. Unless you think insiders and/or Blackrock/Manatuk are also selling then eventually we will have this float on lock down. At that point it can only go up as laws of supply and demand dictate since supply is not infinite.
Also do we know if management/employees have any anti-dilution provisions. And/or can we expect this down round to sting them as hard (or harder) as any of us investors who got in closer to $1.
Furthermore, will option pricing be reset as we saw with Quercus during the last raise. Is there any waivers needed by existing investors. I'm just trying to factor in a fully diluted scenario when this thing does head back toward those option strikes.
John, were you involved in bringing Quercus into Axion?
Is it likely that Axion is still reaching out to institutional Investors who specialize in energy and Greentech (or do they come to Axion and would this process be in the later inning already). And how long do these discussions normally take (months).
For example, do the two parties start far apart (ie did Quercus want a bigger or smaller stake then what was settled upon; did they want a big discount to the then pps)? I'm sure Quercus didn't just come right in and give Axion 20M without some haggling. Things like warrants, strike price, board seats, etc all must have been negotiated/contested.
Would you imagine Axion is far along in this process right with whoever our next white knight maybe. And to what extent does the current market price enter into the negotiation. Or if someone is bringing in 10M+ does market price not matter too much since both parties know that kind of money would move the market if someone sat on the bid all month buying (similar to how SS has killed us by sitting on the offer).
I'm not sure how we "push the price" down. I would think that our group has hopefully put a floor in.
It is the sellers who are killing the price but they become moot as they exit. I just hope that SS is out of bananas soon and has no more friends that want/need out.
I agree that I hope there is dry powder for more buying when the price starts to rise.
This 22M share limit seems like an issue. It would appear that even if the shares get back to the .50 level by early 2012, after a placement discount, it'd be under a 8M raise and that's assuming the max raise.
How did Axion raise so much in the past? Do you think they may have to do a "private placement" similar to what was done with Quercus in order to bring in funds that will last past 2012 and not this shelf offering as proposed.
With the current 2M per quarter burn rate I'm not sure a 22M share max raise buys us enough time to get past the small revenues and into the bigger oem orders.
Furthermore, even if TG has good "news" isn't cash flow the issue. News might move the stock price but only incoming revenues can offset Axion's negative income.
I'm sure my above logic is off somewhere so please correct (anyone).
Hype is not a concern with Axion. In all my trading small caps I've never seen a company do so much yet say so little.
We live in a trading world where most small cap companies put out PR and IR campaigns whenever there is an inkling, of a rumor, of a relationship, with somebody that might maybe bring in an ounce or two of revenues way down the road.
Axion, on the other hand, only speaks after the fact.
Kandi Technologies: Right Time, Right Place, Right Disruptive Technology, Right Now (Part 4) [View article]
Marc, your KNDI analysis is destined to become a seminal work as this great story spreads throughout the larger investment community over the next few years. Great Job; here's to a potential 10 bagger someday.
DRich I know your post was a joke but I think even those who bought above $1 are excited about the ability to double down here. Outside a few bottom feeders who only will buy "cigar butt" values at book (below 20M) the rest of us should continue to add as long as the Axpw news keep coming up good. I actually see less risk now than a year ago concerning our journey to break even and revenues in the 8 and 9 digits. A couple more years of 100% growth and we could be talking about a serious company here.
Bang is spot on and the burn might even be lower then that as AXPW is tightening down the hatches (and manhole covers). Nevertheless, a raise would be prudent in 2012 Q1. Q2 is cutting it way too close.
HTL do you do much "pairs trading". Anyhow Axion and ZBB seems to be dance partners. Their correlation is much greater than the typical market correlation.
Since ZBB recently bottomed I'd bet that your earlier Axion bottom call has a good chance of holding as well. Not to mention these companies are in a similar sector and share similar market caps (and potential I may add).
Cash-flow is different then cash on the balance sheet. Axion knows how to balance a checkbook. However those that don't live in our SA world might think they are "more risky" then reality and a deep DD would show.
Axion is in no danger of closing the doors; however who and how much will determine if we like the funding announcement which may come as early as Q1 2012. I sure hope it is settled before Spring.
Maya, why the 15th?; Wouldn't all tax loss selling have to be done before Jan. 1? Agreed that a pop likely cant occur until 2012 though.
Also why the concern about an RS; many think that a stock price above $1 or $5 if prerequisite to attract attention. I don't realy want an RS (since I think we break a buck on our own) but wouldn't really be against it either if it meant up-listing and/or institutional involvement.
"My broker does forecast a 10 to 20 cent pop in Axion stock by Jan. 15, because of the end of the year tax maneuvering. "
Axion Power Concentrator 31: Beginning Dec. 12, 2011 [View instapost]
If you are right about the 20-25% for SS then they could already be out now and no longer a factor; at the worst they should be done by next week when we cross 12M shares traded =)
Thus I assume a big volume drop off from there but if we get to 14M that'd be nice. However, strong volume through the holidays without upward price movement would be perplexing. Then again normal market activity is always strange in December.
Axion Power Concentrator 31: Beginning Dec. 12, 2011 [View instapost]
John, seeing that Q4 volume is going to end up in the 12-13m range. How else can we explain the sell side supply volume we're seeing beyond SS? SS must certainly be on fumes, however there must be another heavy hand out there since the selling volume exceeds SS position significantly (unless you think some retail types are taking tax losses). Is it possible there is a big holder out there who isn't subject to reporting requirements? I wonder if someone else is near break even on their shares similar to SS and doesn't mind losing 25% or so on their last batches in 2011.
Are you saying that Axion should avoid a placement (i.e. PIPE) with finance institutions and instead allow a partner in from the energy sector (similar to how Google held a small portion of Facebook when Facebook was still tiny). Also what "chasm" are we talking about; the commercial sales to NS, BMW, etc..?
Finally I assume SS means Special Situations (not Start Stop); yes I have a love/hate with them. I hate them for putting me underwater but I'll love them if these current prices turn into a 10 bagger for us. Anyhow I think SS management will likely get fired when they realize they quit digging right before gold was struck.
>> More than anything, I dully-think that @#$!# PIPE's should be out and maybe Corporate VC's should be in. Let me test the water on this:
Group: Imagine that in front of you is a red button that lethally electrocutes an SS executive. {Not yet!} .. {No, stop that!, I didn't finish.} Damn. What was I saying?
It's time to cross the chasm, and it would be much easier with bucks and patient consistency, connections, and the backing of a big name. I am sure you have much-discussed this.
Axion Concentrator 34: Beginning Dec. 16, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
Don't lose your conviction and keep some powder dry. Now that this stock screams bargain I'm willing to mention it to family and friends. SS is almost done selling. Unless you think insiders and/or Blackrock/Manatuk are also selling then eventually we will have this float on lock down. At that point it can only go up as laws of supply and demand dictate since supply is not infinite.
Axion Power Concentrator 33: Beginning Dec. 15, 2011: jakutz's Article [View instapost]
Also do we know if management/employees have any anti-dilution provisions. And/or can we expect this down round to sting them as hard (or harder) as any of us investors who got in closer to $1.
Furthermore, will option pricing be reset as we saw with Quercus during the last raise. Is there any waivers needed by existing investors. I'm just trying to factor in a fully diluted scenario when this thing does head back toward those option strikes.
Axion Power Concentrator 33: Beginning Dec. 15, 2011: jakutz's Article [View instapost]
Is it likely that Axion is still reaching out to institutional Investors who specialize in energy and Greentech (or do they come to Axion and would this process be in the later inning already). And how long do these discussions normally take (months).
For example, do the two parties start far apart (ie did Quercus want a bigger or smaller stake then what was settled upon; did they want a big discount to the then pps)? I'm sure Quercus didn't just come right in and give Axion 20M without some haggling. Things like warrants, strike price, board seats, etc all must have been negotiated/contested.
Would you imagine Axion is far along in this process right with whoever our next white knight maybe. And to what extent does the current market price enter into the negotiation. Or if someone is bringing in 10M+ does market price not matter too much since both parties know that kind of money would move the market if someone sat on the bid all month buying (similar to how SS has killed us by sitting on the offer).
Thank you for your insights.
Axion Power Concentrator 33: Beginning Dec. 15, 2011: jakutz's Article [View instapost]
It is the sellers who are killing the price but they become moot as they exit. I just hope that SS is out of bananas soon and has no more friends that want/need out.
I agree that I hope there is dry powder for more buying when the price starts to rise.
Axion Power Concentrator 33: Beginning Dec. 15, 2011: jakutz's Article [View instapost]
This 22M share limit seems like an issue. It would appear that even if the shares get back to the .50 level by early 2012, after a placement discount, it'd be under a 8M raise and that's assuming the max raise.
How did Axion raise so much in the past? Do you think they may have to do a "private placement" similar to what was done with Quercus in order to bring in funds that will last past 2012 and not this shelf offering as proposed.
With the current 2M per quarter burn rate I'm not sure a 22M share max raise buys us enough time to get past the small revenues and into the bigger oem orders.
Furthermore, even if TG has good "news" isn't cash flow the issue. News might move the stock price but only incoming revenues can offset Axion's negative income.
I'm sure my above logic is off somewhere so please correct (anyone).
Axion Power Concentrator 33: Beginning Dec. 15, 2011: jakutz's Article [View instapost]
We live in a trading world where most small cap companies put out PR and IR campaigns whenever there is an inkling, of a rumor, of a relationship, with somebody that might maybe bring in an ounce or two of revenues way down the road.
Axion, on the other hand, only speaks after the fact.
Kandi Technologies: Right Time, Right Place, Right Disruptive Technology, Right Now (Part 4) [View article]
Axion Concentrator 32: Beginning Dec. 13, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
Axion Concentrator 32: Beginning Dec. 13, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
I hope to see TG's poker hand in early 2012.
Axion Concentrator 32: Beginning Dec. 13, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
http://yhoo.it/vOefNs;range=1y;compare=axpw...
Since ZBB recently bottomed I'd bet that your earlier Axion bottom call has a good chance of holding as well. Not to mention these companies are in a similar sector and share similar market caps (and potential I may add).
Axion Concentrator 32: Beginning Dec. 13, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
Axion is in no danger of closing the doors; however who and how much will determine if we like the funding announcement which may come as early as Q1 2012. I sure hope it is settled before Spring.
Axion Concentrator 32: Beginning Dec. 13, 2011, jakutz's article [View instapost]
Also why the concern about an RS; many think that a stock price above $1 or $5 if prerequisite to attract attention. I don't realy want an RS (since I think we break a buck on our own) but wouldn't really be against it either if it meant up-listing and/or institutional involvement.
"My broker does forecast a 10 to 20 cent pop in Axion stock by Jan. 15, because of the end of the year tax maneuvering. "
Axion Power Concentrator 31: Beginning Dec. 12, 2011 [View instapost]
Thus I assume a big volume drop off from there but if we get to 14M that'd be nice. However, strong volume through the holidays without upward price movement would be perplexing. Then again normal market activity is always strange in December.
Axion Power Concentrator 31: Beginning Dec. 12, 2011 [View instapost]
Axion Concentrator 29: Beginning Dec. 8, 2011 [View instapost]
Are you saying that Axion should avoid a placement (i.e. PIPE) with finance institutions and instead allow a partner in from the energy sector (similar to how Google held a small portion of Facebook when Facebook was still tiny). Also what "chasm" are we talking about; the commercial sales to NS, BMW, etc..?
Finally I assume SS means Special Situations (not Start Stop); yes I have a love/hate with them. I hate them for putting me underwater but I'll love them if these current prices turn into a 10 bagger for us. Anyhow I think SS management will likely get fired when they realize they quit digging right before gold was struck.
>>
More than anything, I dully-think that @#$!# PIPE's should be out and maybe Corporate VC's should be in. Let me test the water on this:
Group: Imagine that in front of you is a red button that lethally electrocutes an SS executive. {Not yet!} .. {No, stop that!, I didn't finish.} Damn. What was I saying?
It's time to cross the chasm, and it would be much easier with bucks and patient consistency, connections, and the backing of a big name. I am sure you have much-discussed this.