Exide Technologies: Post-Earnings, A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
HTL,
Good observation. Its' funny while many have waited for the AXPW rocket ship John's other energy storage observations in the market have often returned 100%+. Hopefully, we look back at this article in 2012 with a smile. It's always good to keep some powder dry. I'm surprised more observers aren't chiming in on this one. I'm really looking for the bear case to counter my enthusiasm.
Exide Technologies: Post-Earnings, A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
John,
Thanks for the heads up on Tontine.
As an aside, last Summer ENS a similar company in market cap and industry, was a single digit P/E and it was up 50% plus before year end (on its way to a double).
Thus XIDE prospects could well be UP from here. However, do you see any reason why XIDE won't get to a P/S of .5+ and a P/E of 15+. Is the market afraid of their debt?
Looking at the comps I'm surprised it's trading so cheap. If I didn't have some knowledge of the company I would have thought that it must be a Chinese battery maker (under allegations). XIDE is trading at a P/S of .2. Have you ever seen a P/S get this low in a profitable energy company that has adequate operating income?
Exide Technologies: Post-Earnings, A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
John any insight to the Gendell and Tontine selling early this year and late 2010? If those abate, which it seems likely they have, that also could be sign of a trading bottom as it was in Oct. 2010 as well.
Exide Technologies: Post-Earnings, A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
John what do you make of the insider transactions? And why would Ardour capital capital downgrade now after the debt prepayment and prospects of higher operating income going forward? If the operating income comes in as you project then that would exceed the 2007 year end EBIT of 135M which resulted in the stock's peak a few months later (albeit it had higher revenues back then). Seems like double digits are in order for this stock.
Plug-In and Hybrid Locomotives: Another Sweet Spot for Axion Power [View article]
John,
AXPW is projecting 2011 revenue of up to 9M+; is that correct? Is the majority of this from NS battery orders and can we expect this to grow by triple (or quadruple digits) in 2012/2013 if these NS tests keep going as planned?
Will AXPW be able to meet the order growth which I assume can be 1000 batteries per retrofit and 10,000s of batteries overall.?
I know you try not to talk your book but just on the NS partnership alone can you see 8-9 figure revenue potential for Axion in the near term; or are we multi-years away?
What's Going on With Green Automotive? Part 2 [View article]
The name Fred Luke rang a bell. Can you confirm that this is the same person mentioned in the article below? Then again maybe Fred has turned a new leaf (a green one so to speak =)
Thanks for the heads up Rocco and please be careful out there.
Energy Storage: Q1 Earnings Omens and Bright Spots [View article]
John,
I hear you on the "nobody, and I mean nobody, takes the risks that we've taken, endures the pain we've endured and achieves the success we've achieved to settle for a breakeven."
I once followed a stock, in which I had a sizable position, for 8 years. There were times I was down 50% but I dollar cost averaged in and got to break even around year 6 because the story kept improving (albeit slower the I had anticipated). It was the ultimate test of my convictions because although I followed it, and did the DD, and spoke with management, I could never figure why others were so slow to catch on. Sometime I would have doubts and wonder if they know something I don't. Anyhow it turned into a 15 bagger but I bailed at 6x. I wont make that mistake with Axion.
However, may I ask you when in the past 5 years have you had the most doubt, versus when have you had the most optimism, in regards to Axion. Were prospects for sales bright in 07 before the recession and then again in Summer of 09 after the recession had already shown us its worst?
I think I remember the 09 bottom and many of us thought we'd never revisit 1 again? Here's to hoping that its always the darkest before the light and that are next break above 1 will be the ultimate one.
Don't Buy LinkedIn - Expectations Are Unreasonably High [View article]
Glen,
Are you ever going to write a few essays about how you were wrong on CCME. You do know you led others astray and cost many their life savings. That is a heavy burden for a young man. I hope you take this chance to build a legitimate career. Stock touting is a waste of your education. Please take this the right way. I know many that await your true apology, not offhand remarks about how you lost money too.
Energy Storage: Q1 Earnings Omens and Bright Spots [View article]
Wow this is a much bigger market then I realized. The regenerative opportunities from a train must be immense. I'm sure others are go after this market but it doesn't take much if your looking at $500,000 per conversion. A few dozen or so of these a year would make a nice cottage industry and could justify our current market cap alone. Please keep us updated on the NS prototypes success and maybe even an article down the road on these types of opportunities in rail road and other obscure areas (oil drilling). I think too many of us only focus on the micro-hybrid market which take the longest to ramp up. Thank you again as always for your insights.
Bridgford Foods: A Little Company That Could Make It Big [View article]
This is the kind of stock that can be dead money. See 2003-2010 as an example of tied up capital (I don't view things from a March 2009 perspective; many stocks are up 2x-10x from those low). It seems you're advocating a trade, if so maybe it will have a quick pop on a squeeze.
Long term you don't mention any catalysts for sales growth. Outside of sales growth I don't see a quick turn in the down trend right now. This stock is unlikely to get any institutional sponsorship and the buyback is almost exhausted. Also I feel the days to cover doesn't say much on a stock this thinly traded.
Lets look back on this later this Summer. I feel it will trade in single digits but I'll be happy for you and any investor if it does "run back to 12".
Energy Storage: Q1 Earnings Omens and Bright Spots [View article]
John,
Is NS trying other storage options as well. Or do you expect Axion to get the bulk of their locomotive retrofits. If so, what is the size of this opportunity (dozens of prototypes)?
Also any chance that NS competitors will find their way to Axion? A few million in revenues might be nice if we are awaiting for the 2013 model year from car makers.
Rocco, when SIRI first broke 1, it then traded sideways for months. Similarly, expect it to base in low 2s for a while. Now would be a good time to sell premium for those that need action. Glad you're on the SIRI train at least.
Had you joined in earlier this winter then the inevitable run to 4 could have been a 4 bagger for you (some of us already have that :). As it is now it may takes years to get the next 100% gain. Well, until you make your millions good luck with the writing or heck you can always finish that PHD (or maybe sneak in an MBA/ CFA if your getting serious about finance). Cheers to good trading and the avoidance of gainful employment as you turn 36.
Bridgford Foods: A Little Company That Could Make It Big [View article]
This stock sat out the entire bull market from 02-08. Why do you think it will run now when its spent its entire public life around $10 give or take a few dollars (save for the early 90s). It seem like a a decent micro-cap but isn't industry P/S normally around 1 on thus upside is limited unless they can start increasing sales and controlling commodity inputs. With this low liquidity one major seller (or shorter) could beat this down near 5 and then it would look like a must own. Please update as the story unfolds over the next quarters. I'll be watching for a price below 7.
Exide Technologies: Post-Earnings, A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
Good observation. Its' funny while many have waited for the AXPW rocket ship John's other energy storage observations in the market have often returned 100%+. Hopefully, we look back at this article in 2012 with a smile. It's always good to keep some powder dry. I'm surprised more observers aren't chiming in on this one. I'm really looking for the bear case to counter my enthusiasm.
Exide Technologies: Post-Earnings, A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
Thanks for the heads up on Tontine.
As an aside, last Summer ENS a similar company in market cap and industry, was a single digit P/E and it was up 50% plus before year end (on its way to a double).
Thus XIDE prospects could well be UP from here.
However, do you see any reason why XIDE won't get to a P/S of .5+ and a P/E of 15+. Is the market afraid of their debt?
Looking at the comps I'm surprised it's trading so cheap. If I didn't have some knowledge of the company I would have thought that it must be a Chinese battery maker (under allegations). XIDE is trading at a P/S of .2. Have you ever seen a P/S get this low in a profitable energy company that has adequate operating income?
Exide Technologies: Post-Earnings, A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
Exide Technologies: Post-Earnings, A Great Buying Opportunity [View article]
Plug-In and Hybrid Locomotives: Another Sweet Spot for Axion Power [View article]
AXPW is projecting 2011 revenue of up to 9M+; is that correct? Is the majority of this from NS battery orders and can we expect this to grow by triple (or quadruple digits) in 2012/2013 if these NS tests keep going as planned?
Will AXPW be able to meet the order growth which I assume can be 1000 batteries per retrofit and 10,000s of batteries overall.?
I know you try not to talk your book but just on the NS partnership alone can you see 8-9 figure revenue potential for Axion in the near term; or are we multi-years away?
VHC, potentially huge payoff in 2011 [View instapost]
What's Going on With Green Automotive? Part 2 [View article]
Thanks for the heads up Rocco and please be careful out there.
www.crimes-of-persuasi...
Energy Storage: Q1 Earnings Omens and Bright Spots [View article]
I hear you on the "nobody, and I mean nobody, takes the risks that we've taken, endures the pain we've endured and achieves the success we've achieved to settle for a breakeven."
I once followed a stock, in which I had a sizable position, for 8 years. There were times I was down 50% but I dollar cost averaged in and got to break even around year 6 because the story kept improving (albeit slower the I had anticipated). It was the ultimate test of my convictions because although I followed it, and did the DD, and spoke with management, I could never figure why others were so slow to catch on. Sometime I would have doubts and wonder if they know something I don't. Anyhow it turned into a 15 bagger but I bailed at 6x. I wont make that mistake with Axion.
However, may I ask you when in the past 5 years have you had the most doubt, versus when have you had the most optimism, in regards to Axion. Were prospects for sales bright in 07 before the recession and then again in Summer of 09 after the recession had already shown us its worst?
I think I remember the 09 bottom and many of us thought we'd never revisit 1 again? Here's to hoping that its always the darkest before the light and that are next break above 1 will be the ultimate one.
How My Top Ten 2009 Stock Picks Performed [View article]
Don't Buy LinkedIn - Expectations Are Unreasonably High [View article]
Are you ever going to write a few essays about how you were wrong on CCME. You do know you led others astray and cost many their life savings. That is a heavy burden for a young man. I hope you take this chance to build a legitimate career. Stock touting is a waste of your education. Please take this the right way. I know many that await your true apology, not offhand remarks about how you lost money too.
www.thestreet.com/stor...
Energy Storage: Q1 Earnings Omens and Bright Spots [View article]
Bridgford Foods: A Little Company That Could Make It Big [View article]
Long term you don't mention any catalysts for sales growth. Outside of sales growth I don't see a quick turn in the down trend right now. This stock is unlikely to get any institutional sponsorship and the buyback is almost exhausted. Also I feel the days to cover doesn't say much on a stock this thinly traded.
Lets look back on this later this Summer. I feel it will trade in single digits but I'll be happy for you and any investor if it does "run back to 12".
Energy Storage: Q1 Earnings Omens and Bright Spots [View article]
Is NS trying other storage options as well. Or do you expect Axion to get the bulk of their locomotive retrofits. If so, what is the size of this opportunity (dozens of prototypes)?
Also any chance that NS competitors will find their way to Axion? A few million in revenues might be nice if we are awaiting for the 2013 model year from car makers.
Potential Plays on Sirius/XM [View article]
Had you joined in earlier this winter then the inevitable run to 4 could have been a 4 bagger for you (some of us already have that :). As it is now it may takes years to get the next 100% gain. Well, until you make your millions good luck with the writing or heck you can always finish that PHD (or maybe sneak in an MBA/ CFA if your getting serious about finance). Cheers to good trading and the avoidance of gainful employment as you turn 36.
Bridgford Foods: A Little Company That Could Make It Big [View article]