cirej2000

Game Over for Nintendo

Hey! Monster Hunter 3 and the Black Wii bundle has released. Wii sales are up 4 times this week in Japan.

Wii Sports resort has bumped up Wii sales by about 70% world wide!

You guys were right.

Game Over for Nintendo

I meant into the "home office" not the work office!!

Ya know?


On Jun 05 11:39 AM cirej2000 wrote:

> If Natal is truly backward compatible with existing games. Then
> I might just break down and early adopt to play gears, Cod 4 and
> Modern Warfare2, Halo3 and the like. Yeah baby!! I'll retract a
> good portion of my caveats about this article if they can get going
> and get the developers to buy into it at a low pricepoint!
>
> If my wife would just let me bring my unloaded rifles and shotgun
> into the office to play...hehehehe! Could you imagine?

Game Over for Nintendo

If Natal is truly backward compatible with existing games. Then I might just break down and early adopt to play gears, Cod 4 and Modern Warfare2, Halo3 and the like. Yeah baby!! I'll retract a good portion of my caveats about this article if they can get going and get the developers to buy into it at a low pricepoint!

If my wife would just let me bring my unloaded rifles and shotgun into the office to play...hehehehe! Could you imagine?


On Jun 05 10:41 AM Danielle wrote:

> Very cool article! If Natal can live up to the hype, it will change
> everything.

Nintendo's in Poor Position Amongst Competitors

However, if the news that Natal is going to be backwards compatible is true. Then I'm getting it possibly on launch. If I can play COD4 and Modern Warfare 2 with it (wonder if my wife will let me use my unloaded SKS in the living room :) then it's definitely a "MUST HAVE"!!

Game Over for Nintendo

Japan is very, very big on different colors of systems. PSP for example. But the big thing about the black system that I thought I pointed out is that it's being bundled with Monster Hunter 3 over in Japan (huge franchise for Japan, mainly on PSP...but we'll see on the console front).

And as far as ditching the 360 and PS3 and jumping to the Wii? You guys must think that I'm some sort of HD hater! LOL! I never implied that people were jumping ship to the Wii. I know that some people are actually starting to look at the Wii and go...hmmmm this year for the first time this gen. But I know of NO 360/PS3 fans who are "jumping ship" to the Wii. I would call that setting one's self up for failure. It doesn't have the same experiences that you can get on the 360/PS3. This is why for the first generation I got more than just a Nintendo console as in my PS3 and 360. Nintendo's casual strategy left me hungry after I got tired of WiiSports, so I broke down and bought the other two in early 07.

People are still interested in WiiFit and will be in WiiSports Resort. Personally, WiiFit isn't for me (I actually go to this thing called a Gym)...but I understand that it's got appeal.

People who aren't gamers still won't necessarily see the need to get the 360 or PS3 because of Natal. I have seen quite a few non-gamers get a Wii, then get 360 because of something like Gears or Halo3 (but not the soccer mom's and grannies). But still that's just adding on to what's already there.

Is it possible that MS will have more 360s sold by the end of lifecycle than the Wii at that same point? Maybe. Especially if the 360 is looking to last until 2015 like many have rumored. If that's the case, then Natal is an awesome tool to extend the lifecycle without having to invest R&D money on a new great tech for the next console. However, will Nintendo have moved on to the next console by then? Probably. And we'll all benefit as gamers for the battles that went on this generation.


On Jun 05 07:59 AM I.H. wrote:

> Great article and an awesome sound product! I think I was salivating
> during the Natal demo. Good Discussion as well.
>
> Cirej2000 is probably right about Microsoft tyring to extend the
> life cycle of the XBox 260 but I think it is for the reasons the
> author stated -they did a complete flip flop and are now copying
> every aspect of Nintendo's strategy. If they don't have some big
> secret in the work, the company is in trouble.
>
> Cirej, you had some interesting points and though I disagreed with
> much of it, I was confused about one thing - Who cares about a black
> Wii? I mean if you really wanted it in black, they were already
> selling silicone skins of every color for a few bucks on ebay. Sure
> it might tip the balance for someone who doesn't have a system yet
> but do you really think someone will now ditch their PS3 or XBox
> for a wii just because they can get it in black?
>
> I have a Wii so upgrading to an XBox AND a Natal would be pricey
> for me, but still less than I think buying a PS3 would have been
> when it first came out. Even so I am incredibly tempted. But I'll
> wait for others to test it out first before I buy one. Even then
> I might get a used XBox cheap, I saw plenty for sale once the Wii
> became so big. Now people will want them back.
>
> I think Microsoft won this round but that's the nature of this game.
> Who will win the war will never be clear until its too late. But
> in the meantime I think I'll take the authors advice, its time to
> buy Microsoft and short Nintendo.

Game Over for Nintendo

Interesting points. But even though for the first time this generation, I broke down and got all three consoles. Most people aren't more than one console. With Natal still being a ways off and MS and Sony committing to a longer lifecycle for their systems, this will pay off eventually.

But better technology hasn't helped overall up to this point. Say what you want, about you yourself spending $200 (rumored $200) on Natal. People who buy an iphone or ipod or a blackberry aren't the exclusively the group of folks who buy the 360 and the PS3.

Without games out there, I doubt people are going to jump with the dollars to the Natal for just controlling their avatars. I'm sure they will jump when you start seeing killer apps for the Natal.

Personally, I'm all over the PS3's wand. And I think that it'll bear games that work with it alot sooner.

Microsoft has momentum right now and they'll do fine without Natal being a system seller tomorrow. They've got Xbox Live and they get the best of the best when it comes to Cross Platform games. And they've got a few exclusives here an there. But SONY is coming on strong.

And whoa? Who said that I thought that Natal was not a good idea? I said, that I would not pay $200 for it. It's a peripheral, and right now there is no killer app for it. The iPhone was an awesome concept, everybody has a cellphone and people use cellphones instead of landlines. Plus the iphone has killer apps, killer hype and people can justify the practicality of it.

If you already have a 360, then you're already part way there for the Natal. Then you just have to go through whatever criteria list you use to make the next step for purchase (does it have games, do I like the hell out of it enough to be an early adopter, is the price right?).

If you don't have a 360 is the Natal going to be enough for non-owners to make the jump? I would doubt it. Especially for the next year or so. Games will sell people on the console, maybe a price drop or bundle offering here and there. But not an add-on.


On Jun 05 07:00 AM Barry Blogs wrote:

> The author has it exactly right and I couldn't disagree more with
> cirej2000. If Natal does everything it claims to, I would easily
> drop $200 on it. People dropped $150 on the wii fit which does only
> a fraction of what the Natal does (yes, I know the retail price was
> $90 but since Nintendo likes to keep stock levels artificially low
> as. mentioned in the article, you couldn't buy it for less than $150).
>
>
> Also, you are looking at this all wrong cirej2000. You have to think
> about it like this: every few years, the big 3 console makers come
> out with a new, better system. Gamers trade in their old ones for
> the new one with better graphics. I traded in my PS1 for a PS2 and
> then my PS2 for a PS3. When I was a kid I traded in my old 8-bit
> NES for the Super Nintendo and so on. But Nintendo GAMECUBE gamers
> didn't quite do that, did they? They traded in the Gamecube for a
> Wii, which is nothing more than a Gamecube with motion sensor joysticks.
> No graphics upgrade at all.
>
> What will happen here is Microsoft is doing the same thing. Instead
> of investing in an all new system with better graphics like Sony
> does, they are taking a page out of Nintendo's book and are adding
> better motion sensors to its existing system. Had they not, Xbox
> gamers would be trading in their units for the next Microsoft console
> and probably be paying a lot more than $200. Instead they'll shell
> out some extra cash to transform their current system into something
> better. The question is will Sony and Nintendo fans be willing to
> buy an Xbox 360 AND the Natal. That gets pricey.
>
> But it is all pretty irrelevant.The $200 price tag is a rumor and
> isn't set in stone. I'm sure they will have professionals doing
> a lot of research to set the proper entry price. Rest assured what
> ever price they choose, chances are people will buy it even if you
> personally don't think it is a good idea. For instance, I thought
> Apple was crazy for setting an original price tag of $500 for the
> iPhone. Who the hell needs to pay that much for a souped up phone
> locked to AT&T? Yet people were lined up to buy them weren't
> they? Fans do strange things. Even pay $200 for a peripheral.

Game Over for Nintendo

C'mon guys...do a little real analysis. $200? It can't launch for that much and be a mainstream option for gamers! The price will have to come down and be bundled with new xboxes. I won't pay that much for it and I've got all three consoles (I bought the PS3 in early 07 at the $600 pricepoint, so I'm not averse to spending for tech).

Secondly, what developer outside of Microsoft is going to develop games that require the tech? Maybe Microsoft, but if this tech only appeases the techies, then how is that going to expand the userbase at an additional $200?

Third - Nintendo has, for the first time since before launch, gotten some of the jaded core gamers who bashed the system to begrudgingly acknowledge that they might need to get a Wii. As low-energy as their E3 Presser was (my gawd, "Vitality Sensor"?), games like Super Mario Brothers, Super Mario Galaxy 2 and especially Metroid Other M have energized the Nintendo Game fans.

Fourth - Third Parties are taking risks. You don't think that the black Wii in Japan will make a diff? How about the Monster Hunter 3/Black Wii Bundle? What about EA and UbiSoft bundling WiiMotion Plus with EA Sports and Red Steel 2 respectively? What about the buzz generated by High Voltages (Left 4 dead like) game The Grinder?

I think that Microsoft and Sony cannot afford to put new systems out anytime soon. These are (and this is totally speculation on my part) pieces in an overall strategy (along with video and game downloads, plus the renewal of exclusivity deals) to extend the life-cycles of these systems. They can't afford to put out another generation of money losing systems. Not even deep pocket MS. It's time to recoup the losses.

Nintendo, on the other hand, is going to have to put some dough into their console market and go HD to some extent in the next couple of years. They won't lose money (as is usual for them) and they'll have to make it backward compatible to the Wii. But they're sort of in the driver's seat. Funny how those who ridiculed motion-controls as a "gimmick" are now slobbering over the prospect. Personally I can't wait to use motion controls in an HD FPS like COD modern warfare.

Nintendo's in Poor Position Amongst Competitors

Uhhhh. I agree with you that Nintendo is behind the times hardware wise and and that the new motion controls from SONY and MS have the potential to nullify the Wii Remote.

However, there are no big games announced yet for the new controls on the HD consoles.

Nintendo doesn't really need an HD most of the games wouldn't benefit from it and the fact that you can now download Virtual Console games and run them from an SDHC card of up to 32 GB, sort of reduces that point of yours.

As for Super Mario Brothers, it's not just for kids. 2D side scrollers are huge games for many core gamers. And the DS version of the game was a multi-million seller. I wish the Wii version had online capabilites, but alas it doesn't, however it will sell.

You forgot to mention the announcement of the New Metroid which is being done in conjunction with Tecmo's Team Ninja development crew. This is the team responsible for the bloody, difficult and very hardcore Ninja Gaiden series of games.

And you also don't mention 3rd-party exclusives such as Tatsunoko Vs Capcom (fighter), The Conduit (FPS), Silent Hill, DeadSpace Extraction, Monster Hunter 3, Spyborgs and well, I could go on.

I already have a 360 and a PS3, so the prospect of playing Call of Duty, Resistance, Halo or Killzone in HD with full motion controls is exciting to me. However, with Call of Duty Modern warfare 2 due out in November and the other games having released in 2007 and 2008...we're going to have to wait a while before seeing this wish come to fruition.

Oh and the price isn't premium. The cheap version of the 360 is still a heavily gimped version of the system. I wouldn't buy it. And it still doesn't come with the Natal. The price is cheap, but if low price alone was enough...then I doubt that Microsoft and Sony would be resorting to "gimmicks" to bolster sales at this point in the game.