mcl_mixer

Why You Can't Short This Market: The Expectation Ratio

"Ever since our March 8th bottom call, I have maintained that the market could not be shorted."

Perhaps you should read your own writings.

seekingalpha.com/artic...

The Shanghai Market Calls the Tune

They were also going to prop up the stock market until after the Olympics, but it tanked a few months early. Could happen again.

Invest in Oil and Stocks, Not in Fads

"I can buy an ounce of gold or 400 shares of MSFT each month with the money that would have gone for a new car payment."

400 or 40?

Dr. Stephen Leeb on Commodities and Inflation - Is He a Genius or Alarmist?

"If we are indeed about to hit Peak Oil / Period of Hyper-Inflation, that sounds like a likely time to turn to a Safe Haven like Gold. Problem is......weren't we just in a similar time, with the possible Collapse of the Financial System?"

The current financial crisis was a deflationary threat, so gold was indeed a safe haven because it didn't decline in price like higher risk assets (stocks, real estate, corporate bonds, industrial commodities, etc.).

40,000 Jobs Lost as GM Becomes Biggest Ever U.S. Company Failure

"Why would small GM cars prove any more popular than their ugly big ones?"

I guess the reason that GM vehicles are the #1 sellers in North America and #2 sellers worldwide is because no one wants them.

UAW: It Should Be Giving Up More

Boo-Hoo. Poor GM, Ford, and Chrysler UAW workers. You sold out all of your future new hires and your union brothers and sisters at Delphi, Visteon, American Axle, etc. Now you want people to feel sorry for you?

Ignore Detroit's Bondholders' Whines

The raising of capital is a non-issue. Interest rates will rise to reflect the added risk. The real argument is why unsecured parties should receive 50+ percent of what's owed to them, while secured lenders receive far less. That's why there are bankruptcy laws. In liquidation, everyone will lose. Since the Obama Administration refuses to negotiate in good faith with Chrysler and GM bondholders, unfortunately there's a good chance of that happening.

I own a number of GM bonds. Barclay's estimates the GM bond offer at 2 to 5 cents on the dollar. Since I'm already down a ton, it's just a short drop from here. What have current UAW workers given up? A couple of holidays, cost-of-living increases for a couple of years, annual bonuses, and the jobs bank? That's peanuts. What they have done is sell out future employees, and their fellow UAW members at suppliers like Delphi, Visteon, American Axle, etc. If the government doesn't want a fair amount of sacrifice from all parties, then so be it.

GM Restructures Debt to Avoid Bankruptcy

Based on the latest offer, it looks like the Treasury wants this to end up in the courts. In the next few days we'll see if the Chrysler bondholders have the cojones to stand up to Obama's goon squad. As far as I'm concerned, the they can have my GM bonds when the bankruptcy courts pries them out of my hands.

GM Bondholders: No Good Answer

The bondholders negotiating team has good reasons for turning this offer down. The Obama team wants this in the courts. That way they don't get blamed if the UAW gets hosed. Anything can happen in bankruptcy court. Sure, the bondholders may get less, but so may the UAW. They could lose their retiree healthcare. Pensions could be turned over to the PBGC, or frozen. Wages and benefits could be slashed. In bankruptcy, it'll all depend on what a judge thinks is fair to all parties. I own a bunch of these GM "retail" bonds. I'll take my chance in court.

On Apr 27 08:24 PM Cobra 1 wrote:

> In court, do the bond holders get anything? If not take the penny's
> on the dollar now and hope you get something if the company becomes
> successful. No brainier to me. Get nothing then!

Are We Due for Another Surge of Bad News in Labor Market?

"The question is whether we're due for another surge in bad news for the labor market?"

Wait until GM, Chrysler, and most of the auto suppliers file for bankruptcy in the next month or so. We're looking at job losses and/or pay and benefit cuts for millions. It will snowball through the whole economy, not just the Rustbelt. The worst is still to come.

China ETF Has Investors Cautiously Optimistic

The only problem I have with FXI is that's it's almost impossible to find anyone who isn't bullish on China right now. Like the US markets, it's made an almost vertical climb in a very short period of time. Could be time for a pullback. Long term though, China and the Emerging Markets are the place to be.

The Next Leg up in Financials

ifuwish2, do you really think the bank is going to refinance somone's loan if they're unemployed, behind on their payments, or still don't have enough income because they lied about their income on the original loan? Over 5 million people have lost their jobs in the last 6 - 9 months. They're not going to qualify for a refi. Back in 2005 and 2006, about 30% of all home purchases were for investment properties or second homes. They're not going to qualify either. If someone owes $200k on a house now worth $140, do you really think the banks going to just write off that $60k. Doubt it. An expert on CNBC this morning stated that the banks are in good shape because only 3% of their loans are non-performing. That would be great if their balance sheets hadn't have been leveraged at 40:1. This rally's almost over. Look out below!


On Apr 17 01:58 AM ifuwish2 wrote:

> mcl_mixer i dont understand why you cant see why if someones house
> payments are $1200.00 a month and they refinance it and their payment
> is $800.00 now that they can pay their mortgage payments now. the
> banks then make 100% on the bad loans now so i guess some people
> still have no concept of the idea. it may be quite complicated for
> some,,,,so you buy your faz and ill buy the stocks and see who makes
> more..this is a win ,win situation for the banks

Can GM Really Abandon Trucks and SUVs?

Guess you don't know much about GM's product line. GMC's trucks and SUVs are pretty much the same as a Chevy. Kind of like the Toyota Corrolla/Chevy Prizm and Toyota Matrix/Pontiac Vibe. Same cars. Made in the same assembly plant. Different emblem.

The Next Leg up in Financials

‘What happens to bank financial statements when a toxic mortgage gets refinanced?’

Let me see if I understand your point. These banks are going to refinance the loans of people that are either behind in payments, unemployed, underwater, initially lied about their income, or are already in foreclosure, and that's going to improve the banks balance sheet? Bet these people have excellent FICO scores. I don't follow your logic. I think I'll buy some FAZ.

GM Bondholders to Receive Even Worse Terms

I own a number of GM bonds. They're all worth alot less than what I paid for them. If this is their latest offer, I'd rather see them liquidate the company.