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TechGuy1786

TechGuy1786
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  • Key Items To Consider For Velti's May 13, 2013 Earnings Report [View article]
    My apologies, when I wrote margin improvement, I meant that Q1 margins that were better than expected (which led to the company beating 1Q Adjusted EPS estimates, despite having weaker than expected revenue). You are correct that on a YoY and QoQ basis, margins deteriorated meaningfully.

    I think the fact that margins were better in the 1Q13 than expected is significant. For me, this just provides greater evidence that the company can ultimately achieve consistent profitability. I believe there is huge runway in mobile advertising and marketing, so am not really concerned about the topline. If Velti can become profitable, then stock is worth a lot more whether or not topline grows 45% YoY or 25% YoY.
    May 22, 2013. 01:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Items To Consider For Velti's May 13, 2013 Earnings Report [View article]
    Don't take this the wrong way James Sands, but the tone of your comments post the earnings was pretty negative and implied an expectation that the stock was going to go further down. The key thing for me post earnings was the reiteration of FCF guidance. For a stock priced the way VELT is, that is all that matters. Is the company going bankrupt or will it survive? If it can survive, it likely has a very bright future, given the huge secular growth in mobile advertising.

    Therefore it was disappointing that the company missed sales guidance, but what was much more critical was that margins improved and FCF guidance was maintained...
    May 21, 2013. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Key Items To Consider For Velti's May 13, 2013 Earnings Report [View article]
    If things are so bad at VELT, why has the stock rallied back almost all of its earnings related drop?
    May 21, 2013. 06:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: Continues To Execute And Will Burn The Shorts [View article]
    Tencent or Baidu potentially acquiring NQ? Got to love it...article link below:

    http://bit.ly/12oUwy4
    May 20, 2013. 10:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: Continues To Execute And Will Burn The Shorts [View article]
    The incremental EBITDA analysis from the retail stores is pretty amazing. If I was a short, I would be very scared. The shorts may be able to get away with their games in the short term, but if the retail stores can really contribute that much in EBITDA, the shorts will get burned very badly.
    Apr 16, 2013. 06:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: Will NQ's Stock Price Increase 49% Again In Q2 '13? [View article]
    Also, though I don't know much about the company, isn't MCOX's share price up 73.45% YTD? Hardly a train wreck YTD (though stock is off a lot since the China bubble days of 2010...but one can say the same for many US tech stocks vs. to the US tech bubble days of 2000)...
    Apr 8, 2013. 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: Will NQ's Stock Price Increase 49% Again In Q2 '13? [View article]
    It's not a "good catch", it's just wrong.

    Fidelity has not sold any shares in 2013. They filed their Schedule 13G incorrectly on March 26, 2013, which they corrected with a Schedule 13G filing on Friday:

    "FMR LLC filed a Schedule 13G for NQ MOBILE INC on September 12, 2011, and subsequent amendments through March 26, 2013 (the "Prior Schedules"). The Prior Schedules were based on incorrect figures for the number of outstanding shares of Class A Common Stock due to an error in the ratio used for conversion of American Depository Shares to shares of Class A Common Stock." -- Schedule 13G filed on April 5, 2013

    They owned 1,172,500 shares of Class A Common Stock as of 12/31/12 and owned the same amount as of April 5, 2013.

    NQ is a company that is clicking on all cylinders and will likely triple in 2013--Fidelity is too smart to be selling now..
    Apr 8, 2013. 03:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ - Why Still So Cheap? [View instapost]
    Pretty impressive and detailed rebuttal of this blogpost: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Mar 13, 2013. 08:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy NQ Mobile, The Emerging Global Mobile Security Leader [View article]
    5-10 million downloads in a year is very impressive.
    Mar 11, 2013. 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy NQ Mobile, The Emerging Global Mobile Security Leader [View article]
    I agree. The blog post by Bettercorporategovernance is just a bunch of unsubstantiated innuendo and factually incorrect statements with zero evidence. Vague references to "IT industry folk" and "IT veterans" are just not credible. If this is the best the shorts can do, NQ is an easy double or triple from here. We may witnessing the dying desperate gasp of panicked shorts...
    Mar 11, 2013. 03:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ - Why Still So Cheap? [View instapost]
    I read this blog piece 3-4 times. It honestly sounds like a bunch of unsubstantiated innuendo and factually incorrect statements with zero evidence. Vague references to "IT industry folk" and "IT veterans" are just not credible. If this is the best the shorts can do, NQ is an easy double or triple from here. We may witnessing the dying desperate gasp of panicked shorts...
    Mar 11, 2013. 03:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile Closes A Game-Changing Deal With America Movil - 200%+ Upside [View article]
    Fantastic call by the author High likelihood that NQ may be best performing ADR in 2013.
    Mar 8, 2013. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile - High Growth, Strong Tech, Dirt Cheap [View article]
    tcf, what do you mean the abrupt sell down? Mgmt. voluntarily locked up their shares for 2 years this past fall.
    Feb 15, 2013. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile - High Growth, Strong Tech, Dirt Cheap [View article]
    The Street's negative reaction to the Nationsky acquisition has been surprising to me. To me one of the biggest benefits of the acquisition is that it gives NQ another avenue of distribution channel.
    Jan 30, 2013. 11:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile - High Growth, Strong Tech, Dirt Cheap [View article]
    I’ve found this debate to be quite interesting. My own thoughts are as follows:

    FRAUD RISK FOR NQ:
    Fraudulent financial statements were a real problem for Chinese firms in the past, but is it really still a significant concern going forward—or are investors still fighting the last war? The reason why I ask this is because one thing we have seen the past 2 years is that given the CCME, SINO,etc... fiascos, the Big 4 auditors now view Chinese fraud as a real reputational risk. I believe the Big 4 now have no incentive to continue to be associated with fraudulent firms. This is why over 70 Chinese companies that trade in the United States have had their auditors resign over the past two years. What incentive does PWC, E&Y, etc… have to continue auditing fraudulent companies? The reputational risk is far greater than the benefit of a few hundred thousand in annual fees, which is why you saw many FY 2011 20-Fs being filed very close to the deadline (auditing firms were being much more diligent in their audits). If NQ really had skeletons in its closet, I believe PWC would have likely resigned by now.

    WHICH MARKET RESEARCH STATS TO TRUST
    It is hard to know which market research firm to trust. However GfK is a reputable Western firm, which gives me some confidence they aren’t too biased. Is my confidence absolute? Of course not. However, iResearch is a little more controversial since it is a native Chinese firm and generally known as a pro-QIHU outfit (QIHU itself being one of the most controversial Chinese tech companies out there)

    NQ'S COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE
    There are many competitors for security apps out there, but I think what gives NQ an advantage is its distribution. That seems to be one of the biggest advantages of the NationSky acquisition and also is one of the biggest benefits from NQ’s close relationship with MediaTek, Qualcomm, etc… Do the copycat security apps have any near the distribution globally that NQ’s security apps have? What seemed to be a game changer for me was the attach rate in the US stores. Prior to hearing (and validating through my own contacts), NQ’s 20% attach rate in US retail stores, I was very skeptical of the company’s ability to gain share in the US. However a 20% attach rate is very hard to argue against, though I agree that it will likely come down.

    NQ'S OTHER OFFERINGS
    Investors also forget that NQ’s doesn’t just have anti-virus apps, they also have apps such as Family Guardian, which aren’t malware or anti-virus per se. However if I had kids, I would likely buy Family Guardian for their cellphones. The Vault app is similar, not malware per se, but an app that may be very attractive to a certain segment of users.

    It is probably obvious at this point that I am long NQ. But I would love to know where I am wrong here, as I would have no problem selling my position if my thinking here is flawed.
    Jan 28, 2013. 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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