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Marmotton

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  • The Apple (AAPL) rumor mill is in full swing: 1) Bloomberg and The Verge report Apple is hoping to release an iWatch this year. Sources tell The Verge Jony Ive is spearheading the project, that a modified version of iOS will be used, and that battery life remains a challenge. Bloomberg reports the device will allow users to make calls and feature health sensors, while pointing out the watch industry is worth $60B and has a 60% gross margin. 2) iMore reports an iPhone 5S with a design similar to the iPhone 5 is slated for August, and a 5th-gen regular iPad might arrive in April. [View news story]
    Agree. Also this could not be a high Price item and sounds more like a niche play. This is not going to drive revenues any time soon. Another hobby. Honestly, I would not be surprised if that was not a complete hoax, with a launch date planned for ... April 1

    What they need are full new revenue categories, where there is a problem to solve and where there is value left on the table (the TV market) or with discretionary dollars and high growth (health care could be an area), even if they rebrand that. At this point I think the company is worth more if they break it up to focus on separate market segments. it would solve the capitalization issue and allow investors to buy the pieces they believe in more.
    Mar 5 09:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons Learned As Apple Earnings Deliver Dream For Options Sellers [View article]
    I'm not sure this is completely true. I could imagine travelers who find a regular-sized iPad to be too cumbersome, have considered the Kindle because of the size, but have been holding off for a while, knowing that a smaller iPad was coming (which can also help explain some of the shortcoming in iPad numbers in Q4). The iPad is just so much more full of features compared to a Kindle, yet it has now a similar, pocketbook-like size. I think this will cannibalize Kindle and B&N Nook sales, for sure. As for the regular iPad, yes it will cannibalize some of these sales, but it will also boost overall numbers for next quarter.
    Oct 26 07:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why I Was Wrong - The Company Is Just Too Cheap To Sell [View article]
    In fact I pay between 38% (Long-term) and 47 % (short-term) for fiscal year 2011 on every $1 of capital gains. The numbers thrown in the campaign are just plain lies and wrong: the effective tax rates are way higher than 15% already because they (conveniently) ignore other taxes than federal such as state or local.

    In my particular tax situation, if taxes on short-term capital gain go up as little as 3% more, my tax rate on short-term capital gains (for example options), will exceed 50%. At that point I am working for the government, not for myself anymore.
    Nov 6 06:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Should Reconsider The DVD [View article]
    I 100% agree with TFCAB. I am a long time Netflix DVD subscriber and used streaming when it was part of the plan. The image quality was terrible, much worse than DVDs, and the choices were ridiculously limited compared to the DVD library. I never understood the attraction for Netflix to focus on that segment, where there is so much competition and access to content is so expensive.

    In addition, I find that Netflix is better than all other DVD renting services for the size of their catalogs, but still are under-investing in the DVD segment, as they are still huge gaps in their catalogs, i.e., numerous movies are unavailable, especially older ones or foreign movies. I always thought that they clearly have not understood their customers, or neglected to segment it appropriately, as I am sure many people would just love to rent hard to find DVDs even if that meant paying more on a case by case basis if that is cheaper than buying the DVD outright, such as foreign movies or limited editions or hard to find older movies. My sense is that Neflix is leaving money on the table in the DVD segment.
    Finally, their website is clearly frozen in time. They have had a major issue with managing multiuser family accounts for months now, and that issue still has not been fixed, which is completely ridiculous, and their search capability is clearly not very sophisticated or effective as it fails often to find obvious things.
    They are clearly treating their DVD segment as a cash cow to finance the rest of their business. That could leave room for motivated smart competitors to move in.
    Dec 14 08:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone 5 And The Dip In Apple [View article]
    Raincity: I agree with you that this is a very nice upgrade, material both on hardware and software side. I am not up for an upgrade (except through work) but am already craving an iPhone 5 for the following features:
    - Faster / more responsive due to faster processor
    - Faster camera
    - iOS6 features, such as panorama pictures, pictures exchanges with my contacts (which is catch up with what Samsung advertises everywhere right now, I know) since I travel a lot.
    - LTE. This is a huge deal: my firm is moving to the iPhone (from BB) and download speeds matter.

    Also the new connector is no longer a concern as Apple provides an adapter.

    So I remained Long AAPL after the presentation, instead of closing my positions (about $0.8 mil in play)
    Sep 12 06:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: It looks as if the iPad Mini, premium pricing and all, is off to a decent start: the white model sold out hours after pre-orders commenced, and shipping times now stand at 2 weeks. The black model is still available. Digitimes recently claimed the Mini's relatively high pricing was due to low yields for its cutting-edge GF2 touchscreen tech (previous). If that rumor is accurate (a big if), it could mean a price cut will arrive once yields improve and costs fall. [View news story]
    The price will maybe drop on the current model, if they keep it around (which I very much doubt since the next rev of the mini is likely to have retina displays). More likely is that the new model will come out at the exact same price as this one, just with better features and performance. Expecting anything different from Apple would be believing in Santa Claus...
    Oct 28 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Apple: It looks as if the iPad Mini, premium pricing and all, is off to a decent start: the white model sold out hours after pre-orders commenced, and shipping times now stand at 2 weeks. The black model is still available. Digitimes recently claimed the Mini's relatively high pricing was due to low yields for its cutting-edge GF2 touchscreen tech (previous). If that rumor is accurate (a big if), it could mean a price cut will arrive once yields improve and costs fall. [View news story]
    That's on the entry level model with just 16GB of storage in black and all models in white. The 32GB and 64GB black iPad mini are still available for delivery on 11/2 as of Sunday mid-morning.
    Oct 28 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Americans Overspend by $650 Billion on Health Care [View article]
    The reason why this is happening is because this is a highly litigious industry and lawyers take their cut at every step. Cap the risk of being hit by a million dollar lawsuit and the cost overrun will disappear overnight.

    In the US, medical acts are now being performed not for the patient's well being but to try avoided lawsuits. This creates huge amount of waste and inefficiency in the system which yield to the highest cost.

    The second factor is the number of uninsured. However, this is also a consequence of the lawsuit cancer: health care being that expensive, it also costs more to be insured, which prevents more people from being insurance.

    Consequently people wait longer to be treated, which results in more severe cases, which results in poorer outcome and worse health as well as larger bills for the taxpayers.

    This is the lawsuit cancer speaking, nothing else.

    Dec 16 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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