kozanack

If All Leading Indicators are Wrong…….

It seems to me that ECRI is the only one of the bunch without an axe to grind. And I've heard the ECRI guys interviewed in recent months. They haven't been saying that we're headed into a boom. They predicted a transition from negative growth to positive growth, and their opinion was that growth would likely be sluggish. So I'll stick with ECRI.

KHD: A Promising Value Stock

I am long KHD. I received it as a spin-off from another stock, and sold it during the boom. I like the company and bought it back. If you like KHD, you might also like Mass Financial Corp (MFCAF.PK), which is the remnant of the company that spun-off KHD.

If you like KHD, you might also like India Globalization Capital, Inc. (IGC).

The Problem With Free Markets? Look in the Mirror

One thing you forgot is that this is enabled by our job-hopping culture. Companies put a premium on people who have a wide range of "experience." Consequently, the guys who hop from employer to employer. Those guys are incentivized to act in their own short term interests and move-on before the chickens come home to roost. If companies rewarded prudent management and loyal employees a lot less of this behavior would result.

What if it is a “V” Recovery?

Thanks for the rationale analysis. It seems like almost all the commentary I see here is opinion peddled as fact. That said, I heard an interview Anirvan Bannerjee in which he seems to suggest that the recession is ending, but that growth will probably be anemic in the US for some time (example, we will rocket up to 2% growth (my example, not anything AB stated))

OMG - It's A V-Shaped Recovery!

Hard to argue with your calm, fact-based reasoning. In the long term, I believe that the total debt-load of the US will be a drag on growth, and taxes will rise to pay for past and future government largess. But I'm not sure why means our society will collapse, as seems to be the argument of the perma-pessimists.

GM Bondholders vs. UAW Retirees: False Equivalence

The moral of the story is this: Don't buy bonds issued by a company employing union labor. You may as well be investing in Venezuela.

The "Europeanization" of America

Sadly, only a slim majority of Americans now believe that capitalism is superior to socialism. I've had the opportunity to visit capitalist, socialist, and communist countries. Socialism provides a certain predictable mediocrity, and also stagnation. People seem especially interested in socialized health care. Methinks anyone who trades private for socialized health care will be severely dissappointed.

Howard Ruff Must Be Celebrating

Howard Ruff's advice has fluctuated between being spectacularly right and spectacularly wrong. I'd rather follow advice from someone who knows when to own hard assets, and when not to own them.

Real Estate: Now Is the Time to Buy Right and Buy Smart

Real estate in parts of Texas boomed during the oil price run-up that culminated in the early 1980s. Those areas also suffered a real estate drop following the collapse in oil prices in the early 80s. A cursory view of pricing data indicates that it took about 10 years for residential real estate prices to recover to their previous levels, and 15 years for raw land to recover.

Silver Looks Cheap

Hey MHFT, you forgot the chart! But I agree that silver is relatively cheap, as are agricultural products.

Billions Will Die in the Impending Famine. Buy Ags

Dr. Paul Ehrlich's has been making predictions of doom since the 1960s. They have all been wildly wrong. Wouldn't it make more sense to identify those who have correct, and listen to them instead?

WSJ Weighs in on Peter Schiff

How many people would say that analysts like Henry Blodgett, who flogged internet stocks during the tech bubble, were right? Few, probably. Some of what Henry Blodgett predicted came true, but much was wrong. People lost a lot of money. At their worst, the losses endured by Blodget's clients are similar in magnitude to those suffered by Schiff's. Yet Blodget was exorciated, and sent away in shame (rightfully).

Blodget, to his credit, at least felt shame for the destruction he wrought. If Schiff is any kind of man, he'll at least take responsibility for his incompetence (instead of making excuses), and slink away into the shadows.


On Jan 30 10:02 PM occdude wrote:

> I reiterate. Barring the "all in equities crowd", Mr. Schiff recommended
> more than just equities. He recommended substantial positions in
> gold and foreign currencies as well. To his credit I think he makes
> very little with the latter recommendations also, he doesn't encourage
> churning of accounts and favors a buy and hold strategy suitable
> for passive, less that knowledgable long term investors. I read
> both Mish and Schiff regularly and respect both of their opinions
> but realize that Mish is more short term and Peter has a good macroeconomic
> outlook WITH the fundamentals on why he thinks the way he does.

>
>
> It seems that people are all ready to throw Mr Schiff under the bus
> for 8 mos of performance in a highly unusual market dynamic. Hopefully
> people don't throw out the baby with the bath water and ignore Peters
> long term analysis and curative suggestions, because I think he really
> has a handle on the fundamental economic problems today .

WSJ Weighs in on Peter Schiff

You are in complete denial if you think Peter Schiff was "right," but still managed to have greater losses than people who were "wrong." The truth is, only a portion of what he predicted was correct. If Schiff was anywhere close to being "mostly right," even a nominal investor would have come out okay following his advice. Instead, those following his recommendations suffered crushing losses. Losses much worse than the typical buy-and-hold investor. To put it in perspective, if his clients make an 8% return on their investments, it'll take them something like 14 years to recover their losses. The average buy and hold investor will require about 9 years. Doesn't sound like he was right about much.

Touchdown: When Do Financial Stocks Hit Zero?

I don't think it's silly that the DJIA financials could all go to zero. But, yes, I doubt that it occurs in linear fashion. Probably more likely that they are taken over in ones or twos during the next few months


On Jan 27 04:07 PM DVW wrote:

> That's silly. So you're taking lines on a chart and extrapolating
> them to zero. I've seen some crazy analysis on this site, and this
> is right up there with it.

ECRI: No End in Sight for Worst of Recession

Thanks for posting this information.