CurveTrader

The Must-Know Connection Between Stocks and the USD

That's nonsense. Movements in the dollar have always directly affected commodity markets, since commodities are priced in dollars. As a lot of commodity-related companies are in the S&P 500, that consequently affects these stocks and the index, and the dollar carry trade may have strengthen the correlation by boosting "risky assets" such as stocks, commodities and high yield commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD). You have to calculate lead-lag correlations to prove a clear leadership of stocks. From my experience, lead-lag varies and sometimes the dollar influences stocks and sometimes it's the other way round, but most often the dollar leads.

Has the Last Bear Died?

Everyone is having that same trade on - S&P goes down now because of overbought conditions and then comes back to climb above 1,000. So that may not happen - either it goes straight up now or this will be the top

Can Rising Stock Markets Serve as a Confirmation of a Crashing Economy?

Great article, I absolutely agree. Always look at the S&P in terms of gold and other commodities. By doing so, you realize we're in a bear market since 2001.