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Miro Kefurt

Miro Kefurt
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  • Update: Tallying Up Model S Sales Up To August And Its Implications [View article]
    Not Sure where you get your numbers but they certainly do not match the August 2014 US Registrations for New EVs:

    Nissan Leaf 3,186
    Tesla Model S 1,120
    BMW i3 1,025
    FIAT 500e 499
    Smart ForTwo 320
    FORD Focus 264
    Toyota RAV4 228
    Chevy Spark 80
    Honda Fit 55
    MB B 51
    Mitsubishi i 20
    TOTAL 6,848
    Sep 16 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Gigafactory's Fate And Tesla's Future Are In The Hands Of The Nevada State Legislature [View article]
    Nevada is a big EMPTY State, so location, location, location is what matters and nothing else.

    Doubt that TESLA will join Zappos in downtown Las Vegas, so their maga giga bigga factory can be as well on the moon.

    While average Nevada due to being work to right State is just about $16 there are disproportionate number of minimum wage jobs.

    And if you are more that few miles from major city, well you are in a Desert with no Water, No Power, No Utilities, and quite often like the last few days after flash flood with NO highway or No Railroad, for days or weeks.

    And that happens on a REGULAR basis at least annually and sometimes 2 to 3 times per year.

    How much $$ would this NORMAL occurrence cost each day if you are giga biga, and people just will not show up for work, for a week or more ?

    May be Musk should go on camping on his preferred location for a week to get taste of things...........
    Sep 11 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Emotionally Charged [View article]
    So far Tesla as a business defies any logic or analysis, it is more magic, sorcery, witchcraft, wizardry, voodoo, hoodoo, mojo ....

    The current price per share is even more so.

    So not really possible to predict what future will bring as no current behavior is rational or makes any sense.

    So any seekingalpha articles need to be viewed as pure speculation and only rated for the heated arguments of the commentators for their entertainment value.

    My main reason for reading these articles and responses, prior the TESLA hype I actually believed that investors are sane and intelligent, etc.

    That belief has been completely shattered by now as they are generally both super emotional and totally immature - wow !!!

    As ignorant as most commenters are of value and money, it is amazing they have any money left, simply amazing !!!
    Sep 1 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: $421 Or $36? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    The California Legislature passed a bill on Thursday to phase out EV rebates for well-off buyers, as well as offer new incentives for low-income car owners who scrap a car and use public transit or join a car-sharing service.

    There goes the $2,500 for TESLA future buyers in California !!!

    The bill heads to the desk of Gov. Jerry Brown, who is expected to sign it.

    The Federal $7,500 is the NEXT target ......
    Aug 29 05:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: $421 Or $36? Pick Your Scenario [View article]
    If CA Senator Mr. Leon has his way, and it looks like governor Brown is on board on this one, not only will TESLA buyers no longer get the $2,500 CA EV Rebate, they will actually be charged a surcharge on any EV over average cost of ICE car, so that the money can be used to subsidize the low income people that want to buy EV and con not afford one !!!
    27% of Model S CA buyer reportedly have annual CA taxable income of more than $500,000 and 80% of them have income of over $100,000 - thus the conclusion is they DO NOT need the $2,500.

    If this move succeeds - and CA is always the trend setter in EV and ZEV wars - then the Federal $7,500 is the next target for the same - for POOR FOLKS ONLY - bit !!!

    Eventually you will be afraid to be seen in Model S in CA as it will advertise you are very rich rather than "green".

    It will be interesting how much PR and exposure will this "income" survey generate. (Just out today).
    Aug 29 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tata Motors Should Re-Think About The Nano [View article]
    Low cost cars currently do not exist in USA, the average new car price is over $32,000 with low end cars cost 1/2 of that.

    TATA has announced almost 2 years ago that they will sell NANO in USA, but so far absolutely no effort was made.

    Only Jay Leno has smuggled one to USA for his own car collection.

    Even if NANO could be sold for the $6,000 to $7,500 price with conveniences such as Air Conditioning about 36,000 could be sold in USA.

    But if TATA could afford to finance the car to "sub prime" buyers with almost no money down and about $150 per month suddenly the market in USA is for 4 million vehicles !!!
    Aug 24 05:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Not So Well Kept Secret Card [View article]
    Both Solar panels and Batteries will lose capacity and efficiency over time, so their cost has to be depreciated over certain time or kWh generation or storage value.

    When those numbers are added to the calculation the cost effectiveness disappears and the per kWh generated cost will be more than that of existing plants using coal.

    The proponents of such systems generally fail to include this simple depreciation in their calculations.

    Not any different that comparison of ICE vehicle to EV - when the cost of battery is added and is considered as "cost of fuel" the cost per mile driven in ICE is less than the cost of mile driven in EV.

    Since EVs like Model S have not been around for long enough to determine the real life depreciation in let's say 10, 12, 15 or even 20 years.

    With average age of vehicle in US fleet of 11.4 years, those numbers are not "ridiculous" - ICE will still run when well maintained and reasonably cared for 22.8 years later and will have some small resale value of typically 12 to 15% of new car's value.

    But EV ??? The battery replacement cost after the 8 year warranty will be MORE than the value of the vehicle WITH NEW battery - thus anything out of Warranty will have ZERO value for resale purposes.

    So in current scheme of things EV has -14.8 years of expected years of durability/use than ICE.

    This may not matter much for now to average new car buyer that gets new ride every 3 to 5 years (82% of new car sales), but eventually will make impractical to have EV in the used car market as secondary profit generator.

    After all ALL Franchised dealers in USA make 2 to 3 times MORE profit from used car sales (5 to 8%) versus new car sales (1.8 to 3.2%) and the used vehicles are 40 million per year business, versus 16.4 million for new vehicle sales.

    In the end who will buy the used EVs with dead batteries ?
    And who will pay premium for house with 10 to 15 years old solar/storage facility ?

    Those questions are NEVER answered or considered in the optimistic calculations.
    Aug 24 01:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    Since Mr. Musk on more than one occasion exclaimed that the same technology used by Space-X is used by TESLA, I wonder if the Model S has a self termination feature?

    And how come this is not a front page news ???

    After all EV's are "tricky".....
    Aug 23 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    @pot pie

    Lack of dealer network, that is Franchised independent Dealers is why TESLA will never be a major player:

    The US Sales already are at 16 million+ and EV's just under 1% of the total or and that (160,000) includes Neighborhood Electric Vehicles (NYSE:NEV) and Street Legal (registered) Golf Carts (eGC) - like those they drive in Villages in FL and few cities in CA - 45,000 of the annual sales are those EV mini cars - almost the same number as TESLA.

    Yet I do not see anyone to foresee the future where everyone in USA will drive NEV.

    The old Chrysler lost billions think that it would happen (with Gem) and so did FORD with Think! - so future does not always materialize as planned !!!
    Aug 23 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]

    Absolutely agree, but these expensive cars are 1/2 the Tesla Model S price while the cheap ones are 1/3 or 1/4.

    When the appearance is so negligibly different, it is hard to justify the additional expense.

    And now if you removed the coveted logos from all of them, what value they would have ?

    That's why companies like Aston Martin have trouble to stay afloat, and why it is unlikely that the TESLA magic will continue indefinitely.

    To me Model S is GREAT, but (NASDAQ:TSLA) is just another Enron....
    Aug 20 10:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    Since the current Aston Martin was penned in 2000 or so, one can argue that MODEL S is a stretch of the DB9

    Aston Martin has a target of boosting annual sales to about 7,000 vehicles in 2016 from about 3,400 cars in 2012.

    Perhaps because of the "fusion like" appearance, the 2013 and 2014 sales are so dismal they never released any "official" figures.

    So it is the cheap look alike cars that negatively affect the sales of the expensive ones of same or similar design. Even if the "Expensive" were the first to market.

    While if the expensive cars had positive effect, then their sales would not be affected, and the cheap copies would benefit.

    Today the Rapide is really NOT impressive at all.......

    Strange - internally for AM it is the S model !!!
    Aug 20 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    I did not say that I do not like TESLA, I do, and actually wanted to get one now almost year ago till I found out what my cost per mile would be and that my normal 15 or so annual trip to Las Vegas would take longer than if I diver at 55 MPH in my 2 cylinder OKA.

    As for my well to do friends (well 3 out of 4), their kids are on their own and since they ALL (but one) are our SynLube customers I know what they drive, cars that are 8 to 15 years old - the only exception is the one that is leasing BMW for 2 more years.

    The odd birds are in 54 to 72 old range, and NONE of them in car business, they are in finance, banking and movie production (and one is retired actress now 66).
    Aug 20 08:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]|13...

    Just look - and if you are NORMAL person, not into cars, you may not see any difference in $25,000 to $35,000 car and the Model S for on average 3 times as much.

    I was actually VERY VERY surprised that really well to do people who own their own businesses did not had a clue that there is MODEL S.

    But then I am into cars, and do recognize them and keep up with the Automotive business and NEWS.

    It only shows even to me that we just can not assume that EVERYONE, knows or cares about the same things as we do personally.

    But on the other hand I do not cook just eat the stuff, so if someone starts revealing to me their secret recipe to burn food on a grille, I am MORE THAN clue less.
    Aug 20 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Staying Away From A Long-Term Investment In Tesla [View article]
    When you are car fanatic or even TESLA fanatic, sometimes a reality check is required. Just the other day on a way from Las Vegas with 4 other people in my car, while zooming about at 70-MPH on cruise control, slowly but surely MODEL S crept on in my Rear View mirror and impatiently passed me on the right at about 2 to 3 MPH faster. I asked the other people what do they think of TESLA, only one of them actually realized I was asking about the CAR and not the MAN (Nikola), even as the car was passing by the guy that actually knew that it is also car and sat at front passenger seat said: I have never seen one !, that is while the Model S is plainly visible to him. So I say here is one and point to it. His response NO WAY that is FORD Fusion, or may be the new KIA, TESLA does not look like that !!!

    Well to make long story short, to prove to him that it was Model S, I stopped by at Barstow super charger and for sure it was there, plugged in.

    The response of the people in my car was that it was rather ridiculous that you would even want such car when it looks like MSRP Range
    $22,400 - $36,500 and then have to stop for 40 to 70 minutes to charge it, on a way from Las Vegas to Los Angeles.

    3 out of the 4 people could buy one of the Model S with just a spare change, but none thought that this company will survive.

    So it is actually interesting that most normal well to do people not only do not know what Model S is, but mostly once they see one, do not even care for it.

    As they all "agreed" such a car needs to STAND OUT from the crowd and not look like common car like Fusion or KIA.

    So to meet any of the long term objectives TESLA needs to have cars that people recognize and care to know more about.
    Aug 20 08:03 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: The Short Of The Decade? [View article]
    Finally there is real hope for the TRUE Tesla fanatics to separate themselves from the regular scum bags that bought MODEL S 60, the SALEEN TESLA for over $152,000.

    Place your order NOW, as your Model P85 will be left in the dust !!!

    The base P85 starts at $105,070 before tax incentives, including freight. Saleen’s 4Sixteen will cost $152,000 before incentives. Deliveries are scheduled to begin in 6 to 8 weeks.
    Aug 19 02:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment