bfras921

ATP Oil & Gas's Forgotten Infrastructure Value

ok

lets do a value calculation off of cash flow

pv10 is one metric..another is cash flow

2010 "pcif"cash flow will be 500 m

4 times picf (pre-interest cash flow) is 2.0 b

less debt ( 1.2 ) =

equity 800 m divided by 50 m shares is $ 16 per share

now the pre interest cash flow of 500 m
they have to make interest payments of 100 M

leaves cash flow of 400m for cap ex

i think they need more thna 400 m for octobuoy and to drill atp43

the best approach for atpg is to drain telemark and stop all other capital expenditures

they need to sell the other 20 % of wenklock to somebody to concentrate on gom

they should also divest all other assets..; they cant be everywhere at once.

that long term debt needs to come down

and one final thought-- all that oil pv10 calculation-- if it cost 50 bucks to sell oil worth 50 bucks the pv is 0

they need to gennerate some serious cash and make steps to pay down debt