bfras921

ATP Oil and Gas – Production will Triple in the Next 9 Months

>Not sure why I my writing annoys you so much

i only responded to you once unless you are talking about all those yahoo names you created to pump this.

Its so one sided , its ridiculous

go look at VQ its pv10 is 200 a share and its 12

you shouldnt put all your assets in one stock. I know you gave al reese your analysis. He quoted it, lol. One hyper quoting another

Try some balance and you willearn more respect

ATP Oil and Gas – Production will Triple in the Next 9 Months

You assume everything good happens and it happens at maximum rates and atpg excutes on time and you assume oil prices hold up and you dont estimate an increase of costs from renting the titan an octobuoy and pipelines, etc

The ceo has sold shares 10 times over the years in the 40's so your 100 estimate us ridiculous.

l,also am long atpg, but i dont need to hype it non-stop . I think a double in production is doable as well as a double in price to the 30 and 40's. Beyond that, is a pipe dream.

Natural Gas Production Declines Are Becoming More Evident

correction

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Natural Gas Production Declines Are Becoming More Evident

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ATP Oil & Gas's Forgotten Infrastructure Value

ok

lets do a value calculation off of cash flow

pv10 is one metric..another is cash flow

2010 "pcif"cash flow will be 500 m

4 times picf (pre-interest cash flow) is 2.0 b

less debt ( 1.2 ) =

equity 800 m divided by 50 m shares is $ 16 per share

now the pre interest cash flow of 500 m
they have to make interest payments of 100 M

leaves cash flow of 400m for cap ex

i think they need more thna 400 m for octobuoy and to drill atp43

the best approach for atpg is to drain telemark and stop all other capital expenditures

they need to sell the other 20 % of wenklock to somebody to concentrate on gom

they should also divest all other assets..; they cant be everywhere at once.

that long term debt needs to come down

and one final thought-- all that oil pv10 calculation-- if it cost 50 bucks to sell oil worth 50 bucks the pv is 0

they need to gennerate some serious cash and make steps to pay down debt

10 Upcoming Catalysts for ATP Oil and Gas

look,im long atpg but you are extremely bullish because you own alot of shares

first off, telemark is late, last year they said they would be producing in q3 09

2.you keep saying this thing is worth 5.0 b, will if its worth 5 billion sell off 20 % at 1 billion and pay all the debt off and stop diluting us

3. debt is out of control
4th. mgt could have bot back shares at 4. instead they issued more at 8 and some more this week. you said they would be buying back share. instead they did just the opposite, they issued shares
5. the interest on the debt is 100 m per year 1 m every 3 day's
6. when they sell of titan or innovator just means they have a new operating expense they didt have before

that like buying a bmw for 100,000 and you neeed cash so you sell the car and lease it back. he leas payment will exceed the acquisition cost

atpg spends the money first, then raises money after the fact to cover the invesment

they got it azz backwards. they should raise the money , thend spend it.

if they did that they could have sold 20 m shares at 50 and raised one billion in cash, now they are diluting everyone cause their back is against the wall

someone called it delution and i thinks thats what you are suffering from delusions of grandauer.

let say they do 600 m in cash flow next year 100 m goes to interest, 50 m to principle leaving 450 m for cap exp. they need another 1 b for octobuoy, so there is nothing for debt repayment even though production has soared

get real, please

Why the Sudden Run Up in Natural Gas Prices?

you have too much time on your hans

pass some gas an move on ole timer

Greenlight Capital: Cautious over Q2

> Einhorn is the star of his time in hedge funds business but his success is attributed to luck

i dont agree his success was luck, its hard work

Greenlight Capital: Cautious over Q2

I suggest all to read Einhorn book fooling investors some of the time

I'm in ATPG and so is einhorn. I hope we are both right. We are both "value investors"

He dumped the gold etf but replaced it with bullion which is cheaper to hold. I believe he has 20% to 25% in gold.

Obviously, he expects higher inflation and lower dollar due to the us govt pizzing away money left and right.

IMHO, the politicians have fuk up the USA whilst blaming everybody but themselves

For you poker afficiando's , einhorn finished 16th in world series of poker

He attracted attention when he shorted allied capital and lehman but he also goes long

Eastern Winds Favor Diana Shipping

Nm is a good name as well

egle would be a good name if the ceo pay wasnt obscene. last year he screwed his shareholders with a 21 m pay package


On Aug 24 09:41 AM enigmadude wrote:

> I agree that a couple of shipping stocks would be a good choice right
> now. I am long PRGN, and thinking of getting back into NM.

Eastern Winds Favor Diana Shipping

ecomike in post 2 is totally off base.

First dsx pays a dividend

prgn and exm have a negative net worth if you factor in the current value of the ships. Like most bulker stocks are on the books at historical cost and both prgn and exm bot their ships at the highs.

Both are debt laden

Dsx on the other hand has little to no "net" debt. In fact they are the most underleverage name in the space

Finally, the ceo isnt a crook like drys economoo, exm ceo gave himself a huge bonus and warrants to buy stock at a cheap price

I dont like self serving moves that dilute the little guy

Cap-and-Trade: The Only Alternative to EPA's Power Grab?

Nice article, Howard.

It will never happen as govt azzholes wont let it happen

Paragon Shipping Income Statement Analysis for June 2009 Quarter

how many assets do they have, Bradley? Did you write this article or your little brother??

get a clue, the ships, you clueless dope

they bot capes for 135 , new ones are going for 60 m

they just sold one ship and took a 6 m hit.

The value of the ships are overstated

Paragon Shipping Income Statement Analysis for June 2009 Quarter

other assets are impaired, so, you need to subtract from equity the value of the underwater assets

sorry, i know you are long, but please post all facts

UNG Hasn't Changed the Laws of Natural Gas Supply and Demand

After you laid out all the bearish factors for ng you end you thesis with this

Disclosure: I took a long position in UNG today.

HUH????