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credit_man

credit_man
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  • Is the ECB bazooka a dud? The bank's bond purchases will be unlimited, but sterilized, with the Orwellian name "Monetary Outright Transactions" given to the program, reports Bloomberg. "Sterilization" suggests any securities purchased are offset with the sale of other securities, meaning no net change in the central bank balance sheet, i.e., no QE. [View news story]
    All the gov bond purchases so far have been sterilized so far by ECB through interbank liquidity withdrawal.so this should not come as a surprise.ECB dosnt want to be confronted with the unwinding risk of QE methodology(the one FED will face one day.selling bonds and withdraw interbank liquidity).
    so bank liquidity wont be helped but after all that have had LTRO to help them.this time what ECB wants is to help sovereign refinancing...without saying it too loudly(hence the below 3yr constraint)
    Sep 5, 2012. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questioning Europe's Numbers: EU Taxpayers Paying The Price For Spain's Accounting Gimmick [View article]
    apologies for my over reaction!
    actually it is mark Grant quote that caused that over reaction..
    i must say i have had enough of those veteran experts bashing europe non stop.......
    so sorry again...you are right that dynamic provisioning is not an obvious knowledge...at the same time i continue to think that this analysis won t move the market as it is not news for big players....
    i should have just said that (what i meant by academic..)
    thanks for your reply and goodluck with "classmate"
    Sep 3, 2012. 07:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Questioning Europe's Numbers: EU Taxpayers Paying The Price For Spain's Accounting Gimmick [View article]
    big article for very little outcome...all this(dynamic provisioning in spain) is very well known by professional investors and analysts....
    to conclude that as a result of this ALL DATAS coming from BIS are manipulated is a ....can i say...manipulation?....
    window dressing exists(unfortunatly) everywhere (incl at goldman Sachs a Greece expert...) and it is analysts job to be able to spot sufficiently in advance the balance sheet weaknesses.
    spanish banks among the strongest? i hope you didn t invest too much....!!!!!!!!!
    this doesnt mean that spain or Europe will not collapse but that you are giving analysis that is already behind the curve...so is of little use other than academic....
    Sep 3, 2012. 06:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The San Jose Verdict: Implications For Apple [View article]
    @pirato

    There are plenty of french blogs where people will agree with you
    so please go there with your weak comments and your hate against
    who knows what.....


    ps i am french
    Aug 25, 2012. 05:28 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manchester United (MANU) prices its IPO at $14/share, below an expected range of $16-$20, before opening trading on NYSE tomorrow. With just 16.7M shares (less than 2%) offered, the deal values the soccer club around $2.3B - a top price for sports teams. [View news story]
    16.7 mill shares offered x 14 $ = 234 mill
    235 mil x 50=11.7 billions

    so either your 2 % is wrong(may be it is 10% putting valuation at 2.34 billions) or...????
    Aug 10, 2012. 02:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Euromess Continues [View article]
    much higher inflation? dont see it coming and that must be the reason why FED and BOE are using exactly the same tools but with better efficiency.....

    the only issue with debt monetization is the unwind but that will be tomorrow s issue....................

    doesn t prevent to work on debt reduction of course...(look at spain and italy s cut following what happened in ireland and portugal).of course those cuts will have effects in months if not years....
    Jul 30, 2012. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European high-yield investors don't know from troubles there, ahead by 12% YTD with stocks in the tank, writes James Tomlins. He believes a world of microscopic rates, slow growth, and deleveraging has altered correlations, allowing high-yield to perform even as returns to shareholders lag.  [View news story]
    Nothing surprising in the current step of deleveraging cycle
    HY investment is about getting your money back within 2 to 4 years
    not about growth searching
    Jul 24, 2012. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent Offering A Good Opportunity Now [View article]
    -13% in Paris.......below 1 eur.....
    dont see what can trigger a rebound now so i expect stock testing 0.90 region..........equity value is one thing but when you have 70 000 employees out of which 10 000 are in France what you need is free cash flow..................
    Jul 17, 2012. 03:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2012 Europe Outlook: How The Fiasco Will Unfold, Part 2 [View article]
    @stem23

    obviously markets are not reading what you describe from current eurozone situation.
    the move towards more Europe not less(incl in james scenario) may prevent from market collapse.
    for the time being hope of it has been sufficient to keep markets vastly above james targets......
    its all about target,p/l and timing........so with all due respect for james work to call it excellent may be a little too much..........
    Jul 5, 2012. 07:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Spain, harsh times are forcing ordinary people to turn to crime, with police now patrolling farmland to prevent the theft of crops and farming equipment for resale. It's not an entirely new problem, but the scope, at least anecdotally, has grown significantly during the past few crisis years.  [View news story]
    obviously not a good news...
    at the same time budget being above 600 bil EUR and after the march cut plan of 27 Bil...that additional 4 bil bill is not the biggest problem they have..........
    Jun 19, 2012. 06:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ECB can stop the sovereign debt crisis "almost immediately" by carrying out a "massive" round of government bond purchases, says Guillermo Ortiz, formerly Governor of Mexico's central bank. So now we've got former Mexican central bankers advising the ECB to print massive amounts of money to fund governments. Wonderful.  [View news story]
    exactly what the FED has done.
    ECB has not done it so far as all buy backs were "sterilized" ie created liquidity was withdrawn from interbank money market at time of buy back.

    @cyclingscholar i dont understand your reference to socialism as a result....may be your consider mr obama and the FED as socialist bodies??
    Jun 18, 2012. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Cheap To Ignore: Dividend Equities For The Long Haul (Part II) [View article]
    simple but great article!
    i prefer LLY to PFE in the sector following your guidelines.
    dividend yield little better with no downward earnings predictions by analysts(it is the case with PFE since may 12th)
    Jun 15, 2012. 04:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France Telecom's 12% Dividend: Secure Through 2013 [View article]
    @dlweiss0622
    they didnt announce it officially+what happened precisely validates tim's analysis.....
    the stockholder meeting has turned down yesterday a proposition of dividend cut for 2011(payed in june 2012) from 1.4 EUR to 1.important to notice that the french govt has voted against the proposal(they own 24% of FTE)
    CEO mentioned verbally that he will support a cut of 300 mil to 400mil out of 3.8 bil EUR ie a cut of 9/11% for next year dividend(in line with tim s calculations based on dividend=40/45% of free cash flow)
    the yield at current price on the EUR stock will go in that case from 13.6% to 12.3% which is still attractive......
    Jun 6, 2012. 02:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent: Deeply Undervalued At $1.49 [View article]
    IP product line is making money but ALU cost profile is a burden and this explains the depressed valuation vs peers(look at disppointing overall earnings)
    PER cant be your only way to find value among a sector
    At current level ALU offers value but you will have to be patient to get tour reward
    Jun 5, 2012. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook (FB) is initiated at Underperform with a $25 price target at Bernstein. It could be awhile, they say, before investors have clarity about Facebook's ability to monetize what it has as well the impact of new opportunities. Shares -2.2% premarket.  [View news story]
    funny to notice that there is now a consensus on FB valorisation between 50 and 80 bil....
    why havent we heard about it before the IPO?
    its all smoke and mirrors.....
    Jun 4, 2012. 07:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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