Joe Bruin

Paulson: Gold's Bull Run Is Just Beginning

Help me out here. You are bearish and sold your gold. You then sell naked puts. Selling puts would indicate a bullish bet on gold? If you are truly bearish shouldn't you be purchasing puts?


On Nov 19 07:29 PM FreddieBoy wrote:

> It bothers me that everyone is bullish on Gold. I sold my position
> at $1060 ( cost $450)
> Gold in 1967 $ should be around $700
> Looks real crowed here.
> I have sold naked puts at $900
> We'll see what happens
> Deflation still around. 10% unemployed and 10% of all houses empty.
> Banks still have a lot of crap on the balance sheet. Inflation may
> be a problem 3 years from now but the risk of a double dip looks
> high

Next Up for Paulson: A Gold-Focused Hedge Fund

The long term top will occur when people at cocktail parties or work talk about owning gold or their desire to purchase gold.

Recent Market Activity: Gold, USD, China and Japan's Sovereign CDS

Gold crashed in the 80's for a good reason. His name is Paul Volcker. He gave tough medicine which eventually healed the nation. As the nation healed there was less uncertainty which eroded the allure of gold.

3 Reasons Not to Believe In Gold's Recent Rally

Steve,

You need to get your facts straight. Jim Rogers does not run the RJI commodity indexes. He created the index but a European company runs it. He has stated that he does purchase the RJI indexes and will purchase some more if they go down.


On Nov 11 11:51 AM Steve Mc wrote:

> Thanks for posting your article. People also need to remember when
> listening to people like Rogers, Paulson, Schiff, and others, that
> these men all have vested interests in getting you on their sides
> of the trade.
>
> Take Jim Rogers for example. Every single day the man speaks about
> how commodities are going to go higher over the next twenty years.
> Interesting that he runs the RJI commodity fund, isn't it? I'm not
> saying he is wrong in his prediction, but what I am saying is that
> he has financial motivations to make his predictions reality. I would
> say the same thing about Schiff, Paulson and anyone else who makes
> predicitons that Gold is going to $5,000.
>
> They want you on their side of the trade.

Silver Prices Are About to Fall

Many people think the banks are making naked shorts.


On Nov 05 09:59 AM kohalakid wrote:

> Why are the large short positions of the banks "illegal"???

Precious Metal Miners: Post Earnings Season Analysis, Part 1

EGO will continue to appreciate because of their execution. They beat earnings by a penny.

AUY is not getting the red carpet just yet. They did have 10,000 oz of unsold gold for the quarter due to timing issues. They also had a derivative loss. Take away these problems and their earnings would've been dynamite. They should be able to eliminate these problems next quarter.

How Long Was Galleon Group Trading on Insider Information?

The big banks are the real crooks. It's a shame the government couldn't let Goldman Sachs go bankrupt without harming the economy. At least the Feds could have let the stock drop to a dollar and purchase all of the shares before injecting cash to save it. Of course Goldman runs the government and that plan would not sit well with the executives of Goldman.

Julian Robertson: Bearish on Gold and Bonds, Bullish on Credit Cards and Galleon Arrests

This is poor reporting. This article did not mention that Julian likes gold miners.

Eldorado Gold: A Cost-Effective Way to Move into Gold

Turkey and China are not bad mining jurisdictions.

Jaguars cost of producing gold is $451 per ounce. That is not comparable to El Dorado's cost.

Empirical data does not lie.


On Oct 22 08:06 PM Slvrizgold wrote:

> I much prefer Jaguar, which is growing from 160,000 to 650,000 oz
> in the same time frame as EGO goes from 400,000 to 800,000. Jaguar
> also operates exclusively in very safe Brazil, while EGO is operating
> in Turkey and China. Compare valuations! There is slightly higher
> cost than EGO, but fewer shares and much lower priced. Jaguar is
> also an easy takeover mark for Yamana, who would like to dominate
> South America. Jaguar's growth profile would be VERY accretive to
> any major.
>
> I disagree with the author's statement that EGO has $700 margin of
> "pure profit." This is not true. This guy doesn't understand mining
> I can tell. There are many costs above direct "cash costs": depreciation,
> depletion,amortization, capex, administrative, etc. You can add
> on several items before you get an actual net income. Mining is
> not easy and very capex intensive!
>
> Why do these author's bother to write puff pieces with no positions?!?!
> C'mon GIVE ME A BREAK. Put your money where your mouth is dude.
> Anyone can write a bullish article. I could write one on a company
> I don't even like if I wanted to!

Note to Europe: Watch How China Negotiates Russian Oil Deal

Work with the Russians and you will find out what the Germans suffered during the 1998 ruble default. Russia does not keep her promise if it benefits foreigners.

National Bank Turns Bearish on Gold

National Bank vs. China. I'll bet on China since they are bigger and richer.

Invest in Precious Metal Miners During the Coming Earnings Season

Disclosure: I own EGO.

El Dorado Gold is a great company. Do your research on this company. You won't be disappointed. The Chinese mines will increase production costs but those costs are in line with industry standards. It gives them a nice foot print into China which is loaded with gold. China is the #1 gold producer and it is very fragmented. I think EGO could be a dominant player in China as they have experience in operating a mine in China.

Listen to the Denver Gold Summit presentation that EGO gave. You will learn some valuable items. Listen very carefully as the CEO talks about the sister volcano next to their Turkey mine. I think this mine has the potential to be another huge, low cost producer. It's amazing that no one talks about it.

Which Metal Miners Will Outperform in 2010?

Great article Hyper. You should look at Eldorado Gold (EGO) a little more. They have a very nice, low cost mine in Turkey. The mine is part of an old volcano. What is nice is that there is another sister volcano that they have started to explore. The CEO briefly talked about it at the Denver Gold conference last week (9/15/09)

Disclosure: I am long EGO.

China's Treasuries Holdings Decline: Time to Start Worrying?

If I were the Chinese I'd buy less dollars and and start stock piling commodities. Oh wait, they are.


On Jun 16 04:14 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Not for a while. Will people pleeease stop incessantly talking about
> the possibility of China dropping the dollar as a reserve currency?
> What else are they going to use? Monopoly money? Taiwanese dollars?
> Collectable postage stamps? At nearly $2 trillion, the Middle Kingdom’s
> reserves are so enormous that no other currency in the world could
> accommodate the switch, and no other security offers the necessary
> depth and liquidity but Treasury bills. Chinese attempts to buy anything
> in size causes its price to immediately skyrocket, such as we saw
> in the relatively Lilliputian commodity markets last year. And really,
> how like is it that China embarks on policies that quickly halve
> the earnings of the country’s exporters, as well as its 30 year
> hoard of accumulated savings? The demise of the dollar has been predicted
> more often than the ditching of Microsoft’s Windows as the global
> PC operating system, and is just as likely. Hate the greenback as
> much as you like, but there just isn’t any other alternative. I have
> been hearing these arguments ever since the US went off the gold
> standard in 1973. First there was a perennial Arab threat to price
> crude in a basket of currencies. Gee, they never seem to complain
> when the buck is going up. Then there was the speculated emergence
> of the “Yen Block”, in the eighties, back when Japan was dominating
> international trade and the yen was bumping up against ¥80 to the
> dollar. Remember the book “Japan as Number One? Ha! Double Ha! Then
> we got all that European whining after the launch of the euro when
> the weak dollar was everyone’s one way trade. Let’s face it, Europeans
> hate using someone else’s currency as the primary reserve instrument.
> Before the dollar, sterling was in widespread use and was equally
> despised. So rather than waste time discussing this issue anymore,
> let’s talk about something more important, like which of those two
> flies over there will jump off the wall first.

Paulson and Bernanke Watch: Confidence Game via Quotes

Forget about Paulson the former regulator, follow John Paulson the hedge fund manager. JP has his money in the game.