snagglesnarf

We Never Even Got Close to 900,000 Jobless Claims

BLS stats from the period indicate far less reduction in work hours in the 70'S & 80's than in this recession. If you count average per capita hours worked, this is the worst job market since at least WWII and getting worse.

What if U.S. Social Fabric Tears?

It's the same old story: the republicans look after the rich and the democrats look after the poor. Very little legislation these days benefits the middle class.

Why This Isn't Your Daddy's Recession

In the early 1920's, the American economy fell fast into a recession (double digit unemployment and massive loss of GDP). Warren Harding decided that business and consumption had expanded too fast and needed a correction so he did nothing. After two years of deleveraging, it was all over. We can't spend our way out of a spending problem.

The World's Top 10 Economies

It seems as if Dave Wrixon, among many others, have been fooled by the Chinese propaganda machine. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I visited China in August and found their export economy has been badly damaged (vacant factories, warehouses, stores, apartments, etc) The people in Dongguan and Shanghai are in fear and hoarding their money. Exports account for 2/3rds of the Chinese economy and even by their own admission, their exports are off by 25%, though it is probably more. You cannot lose 25% of 2/3rds of your economy and still have growth, even with huge stimulus because the fledgling consumer sector in China has pulled back drastically (go visit a car lot outside of Beijing to see for yourself). The Chinese are simply manufacturing these numbers without independent audit. They conveniently adjusted last years GDP a few points so they could be a fraction ahead of the Germans to make them the world's third largest economy. Most of the Chinese data are fake and exaggerated. There may come a day when China GDP surpasses the US. but it won't be in my lifetime.

September Retail Data Demonstrates Stupidity of 'Cash for Clunkers'

I think Obama deserves the Nobel prize because when you visit your local car dealer, the lot is filled with peace.

Cash for Clunkers: It Actually Worked

The chart I would like to see is how much each $4500 rebate plus interest is going to cost our children and grandchildren because the money was all borrowed and printed

Imagine a 17% Unemployment Rate? We're There

We know the official rate will continue to climb because Alan Greenspan just called 10%. Alan is going way out on a limb here but we all know he is the smartest guy around- which is why we're screwed.

A Tale of Two Paragraphs

If you look at the archives of the New York Times from 1930, the language is the same as now. Hoover called an end to the 'recession' twice. Today, it's all falling apart quickly, just as before.

Cramer's Stop Trading! The Correction Is Coming (9/24/09)

I have believed for several months that a correction is due but now that Cramer is calling one, I'm not so sure. This guy has been so consistently wrong at divining the future that one would be better off doing the opposite of what he recommends.

Don't Tell Congress What Comes After a Trillion

Our current debt pales in comparison to the tens of trillions of social security, medicare, medicaid (and possibly national healthcare system) obligations that come due in the next twenty years.

Looks Like a 'V' to Me

This is nothing but a bubble and the reason we have bubbles is because there is too much wealth chasing too few investments.
Recessions/Depressions occur, in part, to destroy wealth and get the markets back to a more rational plane. Go ahead, Mr Chan, and throw all you got into this market and see what happens.

Robust Asia, Weak U.S., Even Weaker Europe

Every economy on your list is being propped up by heavy government stimulus. Remove the trillions of artificial money and the numbers on those charts drop precipitously.

The Rise and Rise of China

I just returned from a trip to Dongguan and Shanghai three weeks ago and this is what I saw: vast blocks of empty factories, empty upscale stores (sometimes we were the only ones there), the worlds largest shopping mall with only a few dozen stores at best, citizens hoarding their savings out of fear of further meltdown (talked to at least a dozen English speakers there), an estimated 30 million Chinese have moved back to the provinces because of lack of jobs, etc. The reality is that China is in terrible shape but they are simply hiding it better. Once they plow through their reserves, which will take 2 to 3 years, they will be as poor as they were 30 years ago.

Employment Outlook Is Improving

A recent survey of 1200 laid-off workers found that only 40% of them have taken unemployment benefits. If that is true of the entire group then the unemployment numbers are way off the mark.

The Recession Is Over

A lot of manufacturing is being propelled by the artificial money from the stimulus. You cannot call an end to this recession until the training wheels are taken away.