Cummins (CMI): Q3 EPS of $1.86 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $4.1B (-11% Y/Y) misses by $50M. (PR) [View news story]
Let's face it......we are at a trough in cyclical earnings and the stock prices reflect that fact. The question is whether this is a real trough or a fake that will give way to a lower trough. Short covering obscures what the serious market is thinking. In the end, only time will tell whether the current trough is the last one that cyclicals will have to face. I suspect that it is too early to declare the troughing over.
Westport Innovations (WPRT) -11.3% premarket after cutting its full-year revenue forecast in a corporate update released Monday. The developer of engine and fuel systems technologies lowered guidance to $340M-$350M from prior $400M-$425M and $412M analyst consensus, citing feedback from OEM and fleet customers in North America and automotive OEM customers in Europe. [View news story]
WPRT should not trade on quarterly results. The deal with Tata Motors announced a little while ago, along with the strong ties with other OEMs is much more an indicator of future and present value.
6 Business Friendly Features In iOS 6 And What They Say About The New 'Surface' Threat [View article]
I would bet on AAPL in all of its markets, including enterprise. Microsoft has recorded a history in recent years of getting in its own way, doing too much following and not enough leading. Their terrible ad campaigns give point to their failure to generate dynamic cachet.....just the opposite of AAPL.
More on Apple: Cash balance stood at $121.3B at end of FQ4. 4.9M Macs shipped (+1% Y/Y). iPhone (main profit engine) units +58% Y/Y and revenue +56% (up from +28% and +22% in FQ3). iPad units +26% and revenue +9%, a major slowdown partly caused by inventory changes. Mac desktop units -24%, notebooks +9%. iPod units -19% and revenue -26%. Implied iPhone ASP of $636 ($625 in FQ3), iPad ASP of $536 ($538 in FQ3). Apple has resumed trading and is down 0.9% AH - some bad news was clearly priced in. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). [View news story]
The stock is dominated by a lot of ignorant people, many of them high speed traders who serve as parasites on the auction process. In the case of AAPL, the only smart course is to focus of the actual results of their business and on the outlook for the Christmas quarter and beyond. The bears have their own motives and their own tactics: the rest of us will be the ultimate beneficiaries of the AAPL juggernaut.
Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu does his best to defend Apple (AAPL -0.2%) in the face of its recent selloff. Supply chain checks indicate iPhone 5 demand remains strong and production appears to be improving, though Wu thinks lead times remain fixed at 3-4 weeks. He believes a consensus for 17M-18M FQ4 (Sep. quarter) iPad sales could prove high, but argues there could be upside to FQ1 estimates thanks to the iPad Mini. (Nomura) [View news story]
There has to be a large number of short sellers in AAPL, and they are busy on line to poor mouth the company. When the current sinking spell reverses course, the stock could move up very fast. It's not the fundamentals that are hurting the stock; it's Casino.
It takes quite a crystal ball to see three years into the future, even for Caterpillar (CAT), so investors may want to look closely at CAT’s near-term concerns. On that score, CAT told analysts this week that dealer inventory reductions are ahead of expectations and could result in lower FY12 revenue guidance by ~$2B. One positive note: CAT said it won't reduce the dividend, even in a downturn. [View news story]
If this were an investors' market, the news on CAT would not be so bad. Unfortunately, this is a computer driven traders' market, where value is secondary to headlines, short term trends and short selling algorithms. If you have courage for this kind of market and you are an investor, you could do a lot worse that CAT. Good luck.
Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) HTC, which has a relatively weak patent hand, says it has no plans to settle with Apple following the Samsung verdict. The fact Apple doesn't seem interested in seriously negotiating with Android OEMs could be a reason why. 2) Delta Air Lines (DAL) plans to deploy 4,500 iPads at its 3 airport hubs to provide information and food/beverage services to travelers. 3) Apple is reportedly planning an AirPlay upgrade that will allow music to be streamed to speakers via Bluetooth instead of Wi-Fi. [View news story]
I have been around the block in investing, from Scudder to T Rowe Price and am now a cool handed 85-year old Luke. Treasury yields should tell you that common stocks are the place to be. AAPL is the preferred choice in that spectrum.
Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) HTC, which has a relatively weak patent hand, says it has no plans to settle with Apple following the Samsung verdict. The fact Apple doesn't seem interested in seriously negotiating with Android OEMs could be a reason why. 2) Delta Air Lines (DAL) plans to deploy 4,500 iPads at its 3 airport hubs to provide information and food/beverage services to travelers. 3) Apple is reportedly planning an AirPlay upgrade that will allow music to be streamed to speakers via Bluetooth instead of Wi-Fi. [View news story]
The sum of all the noise is that AAPL is the Big Gorilla on the block and the momentum is moving in their favor. All the negative commentary is from shorts and contrarian advisors who have gotten behind the curve.
"Come on. This is farce," says tech legal site Groklaw, incredulous Apple-Samsung jurors took only 21 hours to deliberate over a 700-question form one lawyer says would take him 3 days to understand. Groklaw is also unimpressed with contradictory statements from jurors, several verdict inconsistencies, and the fact jurors reached a decision without reading a 109-page instruction form (.pdf). Some lawyers are predicting this case will reach the Supreme Court, due to the issues it raises about UI and design patents. (more) [View news story]
The crap is flying through the air in connection with the Apple/Samsung court decision. Bottom line: Samsung copied Apple on a fast uncreative track and has been caught at it. Anyone who thinks Samsung has a case is probably short Apple.
"The hype concerns us, as it sounds vaguely familiar to another decade," says Oracle Research's Laurence Balter, explaining his downgrade of Apple (AAPL -1.4%). Balter is also worried about slowing sales growth, high expectations, and margin risks related to Apple's rumored entry into the TV and set-top box markets. [View news story]
The problem with AAPL is not the law of large numbers or the possibility of lower margins. The problem is that some observers prefer to be contrarian. Someday, they will be right, but not right now.
As Samsung (SSNLF.PK) continues making counter-arguments in its closely-watched California trial with Apple (AAPL), Judge Lucy Koh is calling on the combatants to try once more to reach a settlement."I see risk here for both sides if we go to a verdict," says Koh: her rulings have shown a pro-Apple tilt thus far, but the case will ultimately be decided by a jury. A prior meeting between Apple and Samsung's CEOs apparently failed to accomplish anything. [View news story]
We can moralize about the evils of copycatting, but whether legally or illegally, intense competition is to be expected for successful technologies. Legal proceedings may slow the flood of imitation, but in the end, most IT discoveries will become commodities. For Apple, it will be necessary to run very fast just to stay even and even faster to stay ahead.
We've seen plenty of leaked pictures of components going into the next iPhone (AAPL). But as Jay Yarow points out, we haven't seen any yet of the widely-rumored iPad Mini. That's leading Yarow and others to think the Mini hasn't entered production and won't launch next month, as many rumors indicate the next iPhone will. Schematics indicate Apple is looking to make the Mini thinner than the regular iPad. [View news story]
Speculation on what Apple is doing is interesting, but I am more concerned with how the law of diminishing returns will affect the company's future. At some point, smaller and thinner and faster will begin to get tired and the related devices will be commoditized. Are we getting close to that point, I wonder.
Cummins (CMI): Q3 EPS of $1.86 misses by $0.04. Revenue of $4.1B (-11% Y/Y) misses by $50M. (PR) [View news story]
Westport Innovations (WPRT) -11.3% premarket after cutting its full-year revenue forecast in a corporate update released Monday. The developer of engine and fuel systems technologies lowered guidance to $340M-$350M from prior $400M-$425M and $412M analyst consensus, citing feedback from OEM and fleet customers in North America and automotive OEM customers in Europe. [View news story]
6 Business Friendly Features In iOS 6 And What They Say About The New 'Surface' Threat [View article]
More on Apple: Cash balance stood at $121.3B at end of FQ4. 4.9M Macs shipped (+1% Y/Y). iPhone (main profit engine) units +58% Y/Y and revenue +56% (up from +28% and +22% in FQ3). iPad units +26% and revenue +9%, a major slowdown partly caused by inventory changes. Mac desktop units -24%, notebooks +9%. iPod units -19% and revenue -26%. Implied iPhone ASP of $636 ($625 in FQ3), iPad ASP of $536 ($538 in FQ3). Apple has resumed trading and is down 0.9% AH - some bad news was clearly priced in. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). [View news story]
The bears have their own motives and their own tactics: the rest of us will be the ultimate beneficiaries of the AAPL juggernaut.
Sterne Agee's Shaw Wu does his best to defend Apple (AAPL -0.2%) in the face of its recent selloff. Supply chain checks indicate iPhone 5 demand remains strong and production appears to be improving, though Wu thinks lead times remain fixed at 3-4 weeks. He believes a consensus for 17M-18M FQ4 (Sep. quarter) iPad sales could prove high, but argues there could be upside to FQ1 estimates thanks to the iPad Mini. (Nomura) [View news story]
It takes quite a crystal ball to see three years into the future, even for Caterpillar (CAT), so investors may want to look closely at CAT’s near-term concerns. On that score, CAT told analysts this week that dealer inventory reductions are ahead of expectations and could result in lower FY12 revenue guidance by ~$2B. One positive note: CAT said it won't reduce the dividend, even in a downturn. [View news story]
If you have courage for this kind of market and you are an investor, you could do a lot worse that CAT. Good luck.
Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) HTC, which has a relatively weak patent hand, says it has no plans to settle with Apple following the Samsung verdict. The fact Apple doesn't seem interested in seriously negotiating with Android OEMs could be a reason why. 2) Delta Air Lines (DAL) plans to deploy 4,500 iPads at its 3 airport hubs to provide information and food/beverage services to travelers. 3) Apple is reportedly planning an AirPlay upgrade that will allow music to be streamed to speakers via Bluetooth instead of Wi-Fi. [View news story]
Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) HTC, which has a relatively weak patent hand, says it has no plans to settle with Apple following the Samsung verdict. The fact Apple doesn't seem interested in seriously negotiating with Android OEMs could be a reason why. 2) Delta Air Lines (DAL) plans to deploy 4,500 iPads at its 3 airport hubs to provide information and food/beverage services to travelers. 3) Apple is reportedly planning an AirPlay upgrade that will allow music to be streamed to speakers via Bluetooth instead of Wi-Fi. [View news story]
"Come on. This is farce," says tech legal site Groklaw, incredulous Apple-Samsung jurors took only 21 hours to deliberate over a 700-question form one lawyer says would take him 3 days to understand. Groklaw is also unimpressed with contradictory statements from jurors, several verdict inconsistencies, and the fact jurors reached a decision without reading a 109-page instruction form (.pdf). Some lawyers are predicting this case will reach the Supreme Court, due to the issues it raises about UI and design patents. (more) [View news story]
"The hype concerns us, as it sounds vaguely familiar to another decade," says Oracle Research's Laurence Balter, explaining his downgrade of Apple (AAPL -1.4%). Balter is also worried about slowing sales growth, high expectations, and margin risks related to Apple's rumored entry into the TV and set-top box markets. [View news story]
As Samsung (SSNLF.PK) continues making counter-arguments in its closely-watched California trial with Apple (AAPL), Judge Lucy Koh is calling on the combatants to try once more to reach a settlement."I see risk here for both sides if we go to a verdict," says Koh: her rulings have shown a pro-Apple tilt thus far, but the case will ultimately be decided by a jury. A prior meeting between Apple and Samsung's CEOs apparently failed to accomplish anything. [View news story]
We've seen plenty of leaked pictures of components going into the next iPhone (AAPL). But as Jay Yarow points out, we haven't seen any yet of the widely-rumored iPad Mini. That's leading Yarow and others to think the Mini hasn't entered production and won't launch next month, as many rumors indicate the next iPhone will. Schematics indicate Apple is looking to make the Mini thinner than the regular iPad. [View news story]