da'zman

What to Buy: Debt

You gloss over some of the key risks. You didn't mention that the Citigroup bonds are subordinated which in a default will likely have zero recovery. Also in the RCL example, they are likely to experience technical defaults in their loans which may allow banks to secure their loans with assets in a renegotiation of loan terms. This is but one risk in a myriad of possible outcomes. I agree there are plenty of opportunities but such a short analysis is really a disservice to readers taking your advice.

Leading Indicators Rise Two Months in a Row

M2 growth alone is not enough to stave off the contraction in credit. The Fed is replacing high velocity credit with low velocity cash, a formula that might help put a floor in the economy at some point but will not lead to any significant rebound in growth. If you think consumer credit will become easier and cheaper to get then you should be buying risk assets with both hands. If not then stay with the bear trend.

Obama Needs to Do His Math Again

Good analysis and clearly politician's numbers never add up. The only way we will get out of this mess is through (stag)inflation. We've done it before and we'll do it again.

S&P 500 Earnings: 'The Pain of Mean Reversion'

What isn't much talked about these days is the 'cooking' of headline earnings numbers with accounting tricks. Typical example being 'one off charges' for a discontinued business. Companies will mark down and sell of inventory and instead of the margin compression that results in, says that they are out of that business and instead takes a charge. S&P at 600 sounds fair at this point.

A Tradable Bottom in Oil?

I'd guess that you don't trade the oil markets regularly but even someone with passing interest risking their money should know that there is a big technical in near dated WTI. March WTI expiration is coming up and the differential reached $8 on Thursday.

Preview from Europe: Stocks Stage Late Combeback on Mortgage Plan

Thanks for the update but small mistake with SAAB. It is not the car maker that is owned by GM, it's the remaining aerospace and defense business that has reported 4Q loss.

Geithner's Plan Ignores Mark-to-Market: Where's the Beef?

I don't know the methodology of the Dutch authorities but much depends on which tranche they own as convexity increases substantial as you go from one slice to another. Another thing not being mentioned much is extension risk. Clearly a security priced at par with an expected maturity of 3 years or so has a different value if it then becomes a 30 year security. In the end, you cannot directly compare a securitization to a standalone mortgage loan.

S&P 500 at 600: Is It Possible?

Sure if its cheaper and you've got some cash to spend why not spend it. Great advice, I'm just glad I don't pay you for it.

The U.S. Trade Deficit and the Dollar

The relationships you write of are generally correct but the assertion that dollar hegemony will continue and even strengthen is naive at best.

The Fed is Running Out of Options

How does buying long term treasuries reduce the rate banks have to pay on deposits?

"The Fed has other options. It can go out on the yield curve and buy 10-year Treasuries to pull down long rates, such as conventional mortgage rates. That would lower the rates banks pay for deposits but would not increase their deposits; hence, it would not increase the amount of money they have to make loans."

I think I get what your trying to say but this makes no sense.