CoinMiner

The Origin of Financial Crises

Count me in – a great article! My initial thoughts also centered around the increasing demand by immigrants. The author states he finds no reasons why an immigrant would want to move here in the next few years. However, that is the perception form the glass half empty – the realization from a boomer that America is on the decline and thus why would anyone move here. However, look at the situation from the perspective of a possible immigrant and things look much different.

Demographics trump. Just in the Americas the population density alone, generally higher in all other American countries except Belize and Canada, make the US look very attractive. Expanding the view worldwide, the aging white US boomers are outnumbered by the young Asians still too reach their earnings potential.

At least in my geographic area, northern San Francisco Bay, these demographic trends are evident in day to day dealings. The days on market have decreased in the counties I follow b.c. prices have fallen (up to 60% in some zip codes) to the point shown on the third graphic in the article. Namely, house process have decreased from 7x annual salary (the top of the market in October 2005) to about 2-2.5 times annual salary, near the 100 year mean of around 2x salary. The buyers to date seem evenly divided between smart money investors (yes, these homes will now cashflow above the 4-5% stated above) and young asian couples.

This is the view from my neighborhood…