CoinMiner's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/322846/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174276-goldman-sachs-delivers-for-shareholders?source=feed#comment-767562 767562
Way I read their reporting is that trading/market making still produces majority of their income.

Too bad that point in seldom made... ]]> Thu, 19 Nov 2009 12:56:01 -0500
Way I read their reporting is that trading/market making still produces majority of their income.

Too bad that point in seldom made... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173326-sanderson-farms-a-leg-up-on-the-great-chicken-wing-crisis?source=feed#comment-760905 760905
I, too, had a favorable outlook on wings and poultry in general several months ago.

However, I placed my marker on Tyson (TSN) and have generally been disappointed. There has been recent insider buying but the price action lately quite underwheling. Additionally JPM just down graded TSN. Haven't been that impressed with management decisions which have mady my radar screen either. So, perhaps SAFM is the better sector play.]]> Sun, 15 Nov 2009 11:27:48 -0500
I, too, had a favorable outlook on wings and poultry in general several months ago.

However, I placed my marker on Tyson (TSN) and have generally been disappointed. There has been recent insider buying but the price action lately quite underwheling. Additionally JPM just down graded TSN. Haven't been that impressed with management decisions which have mady my radar screen either. So, perhaps SAFM is the better sector play.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167855-how-paulson-gave-goldman-the-lehman-heads-up?source=feed#comment-723688 723688
Of course the incident you highlight, and other high crimes, were never brought up.]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 12:21:31 -0400
Of course the incident you highlight, and other high crimes, were never brought up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166930-missed-the-move-in-gold-crude-oil-could-be-an-alternative-commodity-play?source=feed#comment-718610 718610
One thing not yet noted here, however, is that much of the GLD rise has been underpinned by physical Au purchases. China, India and other asian and mid-east countries have been strong buyers of physical gold for the past couple years.

This forces up the paper price, and GLD - which must maintain a certain level of physical gold in storage (at least according to their prospectus) - must then purchase even more physical gold.

You can verify this thesis by noting the premium that physical gold, especially small fractional gold pieces, has held over the spot price the past 12 months (although the premium has backed off recently).

*Extremely few organizations or banks or individuals hold physical oil.*

p.s. I like your web site.]]> Sat, 17 Oct 2009 13:01:44 -0400
One thing not yet noted here, however, is that much of the GLD rise has been underpinned by physical Au purchases. China, India and other asian and mid-east countries have been strong buyers of physical gold for the past couple years.

This forces up the paper price, and GLD - which must maintain a certain level of physical gold in storage (at least according to their prospectus) - must then purchase even more physical gold.

You can verify this thesis by noting the premium that physical gold, especially small fractional gold pieces, has held over the spot price the past 12 months (although the premium has backed off recently).

*Extremely few organizations or banks or individuals hold physical oil.*

p.s. I like your web site.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160173-wall-street-securitizing-life-insurance-policies-seriously?source=feed#comment-664032 664032 ]]> Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:07:24 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158188-s-p-case-shiller-home-price-numbers?source=feed#comment-647713 647713
A first glance of the recent Case-Shiller index sees seasonal strength. This is expected as summer typically provides a stronger period of both home price and demand.

Yet, will this seasonal strength provide a cyclical floor?

Let’s look at some projections in debt quality:

Fitch rating services shows a plunge in the Cure rate.

www.housingwire.com/20.../

Note that Fitch reports the CURE rate for prime plummeted from 45% to 6%. This is huge! That is, only 6% of troubled homeowners who have slipped into problems (and temporarily bailed out by taxpayer largess) will STAY out of trouble. The other 94% will sink yet again into insolvency.

And this is the report for prime loans. The subprime and Alt-A are even worse. Fitch reports that only 5% of delinquent homeowners will be able to eventually become current on their mortgage payment after rate resets.

Now, those who have been following the national US housing market already realize that the foreclosures for sub-prime homeowners has already peaked. Following near cessation of subprime home foreclosures the national housing price has only regained 1.3% - this is the heralded ‘recovery’!

More ominous clouds on the horizon are the large wave of Alt-A resets just now coming online. This wave is just as large as the subprime loans.

Per Fitch, the numbers of Alt-A debtors who can expect to survive payments is now at just 5%, and falling.

Bottom line: Sell now to the ‘speculators’, if you can.

The buying opportunity will arise in another 2-3 years. ]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 14:51:21 -0400
A first glance of the recent Case-Shiller index sees seasonal strength. This is expected as summer typically provides a stronger period of both home price and demand.

Yet, will this seasonal strength provide a cyclical floor?

Let’s look at some projections in debt quality:

Fitch rating services shows a plunge in the Cure rate.

www.housingwire.com/20.../

Note that Fitch reports the CURE rate for prime plummeted from 45% to 6%. This is huge! That is, only 6% of troubled homeowners who have slipped into problems (and temporarily bailed out by taxpayer largess) will STAY out of trouble. The other 94% will sink yet again into insolvency.

And this is the report for prime loans. The subprime and Alt-A are even worse. Fitch reports that only 5% of delinquent homeowners will be able to eventually become current on their mortgage payment after rate resets.

Now, those who have been following the national US housing market already realize that the foreclosures for sub-prime homeowners has already peaked. Following near cessation of subprime home foreclosures the national housing price has only regained 1.3% - this is the heralded ‘recovery’!

More ominous clouds on the horizon are the large wave of Alt-A resets just now coming online. This wave is just as large as the subprime loans.

Per Fitch, the numbers of Alt-A debtors who can expect to survive payments is now at just 5%, and falling.

Bottom line: Sell now to the ‘speculators’, if you can.

The buying opportunity will arise in another 2-3 years. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156192-6-ways-to-play-clean-energy?source=feed#comment-630046 630046
One critical piece of information I did not see here is the sheer necessity to understand the water rights issue for these firms. Without the water rights, and especially, the actual available quantity, it really doesn’t matter what property you own or quality of staff and management.

To that point the states of Nv and Utah this week agreed to begin de-watering the snake and thousand spring valley to pump into the Las Vegas Basin. This is just one of those issues that bears monitoring for anybody plying in the sector.

Disclaimer, I currently hold HTM.]]> Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:25:51 -0400
One critical piece of information I did not see here is the sheer necessity to understand the water rights issue for these firms. Without the water rights, and especially, the actual available quantity, it really doesn’t matter what property you own or quality of staff and management.

To that point the states of Nv and Utah this week agreed to begin de-watering the snake and thousand spring valley to pump into the Las Vegas Basin. This is just one of those issues that bears monitoring for anybody plying in the sector.

Disclaimer, I currently hold HTM.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154576-smart-grid-stimulus-applications-2-85b-and-counting?source=feed#comment-619715 619715
If the utility can 'monitor' your energy use, they aren't too far off from having the ability to hit the switch and turn off energy to your loop.

The beauty of this smart energy movement is the flip side - micro energy plants (mills, turbines, arrays) that the homeowner can install which is off the 'smart grid' - true energy independence.

Let them tax the system you let them know about and gain true independence with the system they don't know you have.]]> Fri, 07 Aug 2009 10:48:59 -0400
If the utility can 'monitor' your energy use, they aren't too far off from having the ability to hit the switch and turn off energy to your loop.

The beauty of this smart energy movement is the flip side - micro energy plants (mills, turbines, arrays) that the homeowner can install which is off the 'smart grid' - true energy independence.

Let them tax the system you let them know about and gain true independence with the system they don't know you have.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/152514-duoyuan-global-water-liquid-with-good-potential?source=feed#comment-613175 613175 Mon, 03 Aug 2009 13:56:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149503-the-world-s-top-10-gold-miners-by-value?source=feed#comment-591876 591876
Might as well be looking for the company environmental and safety programs...]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 10:19:16 -0400
Might as well be looking for the company environmental and safety programs...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149477-exxon-s-biofuel-bet?source=feed#comment-591837 591837
Right at and immediately after Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska the petroleum industry began earnestly searching for alternative means of oil spill response. The old model of scrubbing oil mechanically off birds, waves, rocks and beaches no longer worked as a practical matter.

Bio-remediation came into being, where we learned how to harvest and keep happy certain strains of bacteria that would eat fuel as a food source. The technique has come a long way in 15 years.

Using bacteria as a FUEL itself, is the next logical step in our efforts to understand and better live within the Carbon and Nitrogen cycles. For far too long our society has made our living on just one or two areas of the carbon and nitrogen cycles.

Learning to match our behavior, fuel and energy uses synergistically with our bacteria friends will continue to yield ever increasing benefits.

]]> Fri, 17 Jul 2009 09:59:07 -0400
Right at and immediately after Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska the petroleum industry began earnestly searching for alternative means of oil spill response. The old model of scrubbing oil mechanically off birds, waves, rocks and beaches no longer worked as a practical matter.

Bio-remediation came into being, where we learned how to harvest and keep happy certain strains of bacteria that would eat fuel as a food source. The technique has come a long way in 15 years.

Using bacteria as a FUEL itself, is the next logical step in our efforts to understand and better live within the Carbon and Nitrogen cycles. For far too long our society has made our living on just one or two areas of the carbon and nitrogen cycles.

Learning to match our behavior, fuel and energy uses synergistically with our bacteria friends will continue to yield ever increasing benefits.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148832-should-i-invest-10-of-my-portfolio-in-gold?source=feed#comment-589043 589043
One cannot dismiss the intent behind the Russian president, Medvedev, passing out a new coin to the leaders at the G8 summit. Currently, three of the eight have publically called for a new unit of international trade.

Just a matter of time before that minority position becomes a majority position. And yes, do believe gold will function quite well as that shelter in the storm during the transition period.]]> Wed, 15 Jul 2009 11:04:17 -0400
One cannot dismiss the intent behind the Russian president, Medvedev, passing out a new coin to the leaders at the G8 summit. Currently, three of the eight have publically called for a new unit of international trade.

Just a matter of time before that minority position becomes a majority position. And yes, do believe gold will function quite well as that shelter in the storm during the transition period.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147199-why-hazardous-waste-companies-are-hazardous-to-your-portfolio?source=feed#comment-577391 577391 Tue, 07 Jul 2009 13:43:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/147267-california-and-by-extension-the-u-s-headed-for-permanently-smaller-economy?source=feed#comment-577297 577297
America indeed enter an inflationary recession in 2000. This changed into a deflationary depression beginning the fourth quarter of 2006.]]> Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:45:40 -0400
America indeed enter an inflationary recession in 2000. This changed into a deflationary depression beginning the fourth quarter of 2006.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146924-gold-price-manipulation-so-what?source=feed#comment-574546 574546
However, intervention on a scale to constitute manipulation will - over time - completely erode public confidence in that particular market. That market will fail and ultimately be replaced by another with greater transparency.

There ARE reasons to consider the pros and cons of 'managed' economies irrespective of the price of any one thing on any given day.]]> Sun, 05 Jul 2009 12:03:27 -0400
However, intervention on a scale to constitute manipulation will - over time - completely erode public confidence in that particular market. That market will fail and ultimately be replaced by another with greater transparency.

There ARE reasons to consider the pros and cons of 'managed' economies irrespective of the price of any one thing on any given day.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146571-poor-demographic-prospects-point-to-higher-gold-price?source=feed#comment-571822 571822
So, the boomers *should* be selling gold at this point of their life. However, the reality is that they *should* have - but never did -bought more metals and other tangible assets, rather than hock themselves into debt as they've actually done.

Thus, the supply of boomer metals for sale is not at the high cycle it should be.

Instead, the latent demand for metals/hard assets from the next two generations will increase as they realize the mistake their parents and grandparents made and be forced to choose savings/hard assets over debt/paper. ]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:17:16 -0400
So, the boomers *should* be selling gold at this point of their life. However, the reality is that they *should* have - but never did -bought more metals and other tangible assets, rather than hock themselves into debt as they've actually done.

Thus, the supply of boomer metals for sale is not at the high cycle it should be.

Instead, the latent demand for metals/hard assets from the next two generations will increase as they realize the mistake their parents and grandparents made and be forced to choose savings/hard assets over debt/paper. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146075-two-paths-to-platinum-lead-to-ubs?source=feed#comment-568499 568499 Tue, 30 Jun 2009 11:46:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144801-could-investors-be-wrong-again-about-treasury-bonds-tlt?source=feed#comment-558805 558805
Think of it this way - when was the last time you heard an investor say/blog: "Gee, that government is collapsing and their neighbor doesn't look so hot either - think I'll go buy more government paper promises!".

Not likely; the higher probability bet is they'll increase their defensive positions in short term cash, commodities and gold, and local real estate. ]]> Tue, 23 Jun 2009 09:45:59 -0400
Think of it this way - when was the last time you heard an investor say/blog: "Gee, that government is collapsing and their neighbor doesn't look so hot either - think I'll go buy more government paper promises!".

Not likely; the higher probability bet is they'll increase their defensive positions in short term cash, commodities and gold, and local real estate. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144397-lsi-is-ready-to-rise-barron-s?source=feed#comment-556252 556252
(Hope that it will eventually be able to find a customer is not a ‘forward looking statement').

I remember when LSI unceremoniously fired an acquaintance of mine, production engineer. He was offered another job in 4 weeks whereas LSI still can't make a profit! ]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 12:57:54 -0400
(Hope that it will eventually be able to find a customer is not a ‘forward looking statement').

I remember when LSI unceremoniously fired an acquaintance of mine, production engineer. He was offered another job in 4 weeks whereas LSI still can't make a profit! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141054-paulson-co-hedge-fund-files-13g-on-anglogold-ashanti?source=feed#comment-530262 530262 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:53:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140279-the-myth-of-gold-confiscation?source=feed#comment-522839 522839
You state that holding gold 'is another matter' from hoarding gold.

Where was Roosevelt's legal authority to determine the threshold here? How was the definition of hoarding proscribed, except via government fiat decree? Government regulation of my personal stores is not compatible with their expressed powers.

Let me ask you this - how much food am I allowed to keep at my house? Is it up to you, or a government executive, to deem a sufficient amount? How does that comport with my rights to pursue life and liberty?

Dangerous waters and lack of internal logic support that premise.
]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 10:44:14 -0400
You state that holding gold 'is another matter' from hoarding gold.

Where was Roosevelt's legal authority to determine the threshold here? How was the definition of hoarding proscribed, except via government fiat decree? Government regulation of my personal stores is not compatible with their expressed powers.

Let me ask you this - how much food am I allowed to keep at my house? Is it up to you, or a government executive, to deem a sufficient amount? How does that comport with my rights to pursue life and liberty?

Dangerous waters and lack of internal logic support that premise.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139616-barrick-gold-a-hedge-against-the-dollar-and-inflation?source=feed#comment-519919 519919
One thing I have noticed is that ABX managed, since the Lac Minerals days, have made very shrewd moves based upon company reserves and properties. One thing they have had more difficulty with is accurately 'guessing' the future price of gold.

i.e. their hedge book history. They are now in the position of 'winding down' losing bets when they could have benefitted from this recent upsdie in price of gold.

Hence, another play is to focus on the obvious ABX targets, based upon previous takeover history and patterns, before actual takeover announcement.

This tack has also worked for me regarding potential KGC takeovers.

Both KGC and ABX have manged their takeover targets remarkably well. In part the mining sector has an easier time of merging mining operations than other sectors/industries.]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 14:11:59 -0400
One thing I have noticed is that ABX managed, since the Lac Minerals days, have made very shrewd moves based upon company reserves and properties. One thing they have had more difficulty with is accurately 'guessing' the future price of gold.

i.e. their hedge book history. They are now in the position of 'winding down' losing bets when they could have benefitted from this recent upsdie in price of gold.

Hence, another play is to focus on the obvious ABX targets, based upon previous takeover history and patterns, before actual takeover announcement.

This tack has also worked for me regarding potential KGC takeovers.

Both KGC and ABX have manged their takeover targets remarkably well. In part the mining sector has an easier time of merging mining operations than other sectors/industries.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139588-u-s-treasury-owned-gold-what-can-it-buy?source=feed#comment-519894 519894
Treausry Department has not provided an audit of the gold deposits since the 1960s.

As it is, we have taken out $950 credit based upon $44.22 deposits.

The more true analysis is debt divided by verified oz gold in holdings.

The difference is "Full faith and credit"!]]> Wed, 27 May 2009 13:52:46 -0400
Treausry Department has not provided an audit of the gold deposits since the 1960s.

As it is, we have taken out $950 credit based upon $44.22 deposits.

The more true analysis is debt divided by verified oz gold in holdings.

The difference is "Full faith and credit"!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131735-solar-development-and-strategic-shifts-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-469800 469800
You need land AND water permits, and not everything is as it appears... ]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 11:59:37 -0400
You need land AND water permits, and not everything is as it appears... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130557-new-bull-market-or-a-bear-market-rally?source=feed#comment-460453 460453
Sure the markets can reach new highs, all the while losing value with each new plateau!]]> Sun, 12 Apr 2009 10:43:39 -0400
Sure the markets can reach new highs, all the while losing value with each new plateau!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128537-rio-tinto-wants-to-sell-assets-but-not-diamonds-and-uranium?source=feed#comment-446535 446535 KGC) bought into a stake in the Diavik Diamond Mine.

By taking over half share from Harry Winston, KCG gets a representative on their board and about 20% interest in the Diavik mine,, Northwest Terr., Canada. I see no immediate reason to doubt KGC's action.

Firstly, as stated in this article, diamonds have fallen price considerably, why not add another tangible asset hedge? Secondly, they simply stream cashflow while letting one of the worlds most experienced and efficient mining firms, RIO, do the mining. Third, given the likelihood for increased taxes in general, and on NA mining in particular,  why not acquire a few tax write-offs against an increasing revenue stream?

Fourth, KGC's buys and takeover - while fairly well panned on this board and others - haves shown results FAR above the industry return. Management has proven themselves IMHO by digesting a number of firms in a short time span, integrating those assets and productions into the KGC assemblage. Now ensconced firmly in the world's mid tier production firms, KGC proves the adage better to play as a team then pin the hopes on one superstar/supermine.

NOTE: I own KGC - it has been one of my better performers.
I do not own RIO and agree they need to lower their debt ratios. They are in the classic position of owning and efficiently operating many good properties while suffering from poor management/financial structuring IMHO.

Thanks for the article.]]> Tue, 31 Mar 2009 11:41:31 -0400 KGC) bought into a stake in the Diavik Diamond Mine.

By taking over half share from Harry Winston, KCG gets a representative on their board and about 20% interest in the Diavik mine,, Northwest Terr., Canada. I see no immediate reason to doubt KGC's action.

Firstly, as stated in this article, diamonds have fallen price considerably, why not add another tangible asset hedge? Secondly, they simply stream cashflow while letting one of the worlds most experienced and efficient mining firms, RIO, do the mining. Third, given the likelihood for increased taxes in general, and on NA mining in particular,  why not acquire a few tax write-offs against an increasing revenue stream?

Fourth, KGC's buys and takeover - while fairly well panned on this board and others - haves shown results FAR above the industry return. Management has proven themselves IMHO by digesting a number of firms in a short time span, integrating those assets and productions into the KGC assemblage. Now ensconced firmly in the world's mid tier production firms, KGC proves the adage better to play as a team then pin the hopes on one superstar/supermine.

NOTE: I own KGC - it has been one of my better performers.
I do not own RIO and agree they need to lower their debt ratios. They are in the classic position of owning and efficiently operating many good properties while suffering from poor management/financial structuring IMHO.

Thanks for the article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128041-if-geithner-plan-fails-what-s-plan-b?source=feed#comment-442535 442535
he free market system works, its the regulation which fails; both by design and execution.]]> Fri, 27 Mar 2009 12:29:24 -0400
he free market system works, its the regulation which fails; both by design and execution.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127164-gold-against-stocks-over-the-decades-not-as-impressive?source=feed#comment-435335 435335
Why did you choose that arbitrary time span? (Hopefully not just to reinforce your initial thesis.)

How many of those companies that were one in the Wilshire have gone bankrupt in 30 years? In the majority of corporate bankruptcies common stock becomes worthless. For example, had you chosen the original DOW 30 to analyze against gold performance, you would learn that 29 or those 30 companies no longer exist. That’s right 96.7 percent of your investment would have been wiped out. This type of analysis usually leaves out that fact also, go figure.

After looking at the longer time scales, and broader horizons; and against financial and economic benchmarks rather than just fiscal ones – the reasons men, banks, and governments gravitate towards gold become clearer.

Thanks for your article.
]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 11:38:38 -0400
Why did you choose that arbitrary time span? (Hopefully not just to reinforce your initial thesis.)

How many of those companies that were one in the Wilshire have gone bankrupt in 30 years? In the majority of corporate bankruptcies common stock becomes worthless. For example, had you chosen the original DOW 30 to analyze against gold performance, you would learn that 29 or those 30 companies no longer exist. That’s right 96.7 percent of your investment would have been wiped out. This type of analysis usually leaves out that fact also, go figure.

After looking at the longer time scales, and broader horizons; and against financial and economic benchmarks rather than just fiscal ones – the reasons men, banks, and governments gravitate towards gold become clearer.

Thanks for your article.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126373-reits-good-time-to-buy-but-expect-near-term-choppy-prices?source=feed#comment-431118 431118 Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:49:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126341-six-steps-to-hell-our-descent-into-today-s-daunting-economic-inferno?source=feed#comment-430910 430910 Wed, 18 Mar 2009 13:45:41 -0400