CoinMiner

Could Investors Be Wrong (Again) About Treasury Bonds (TLT)?

I agree that there remain a number of unknown variables out there, which make this market such a tricky one to play. However one thing I'll wager is that geopolitical uncertainty, such as "Iran out of control" - the example used above - rarely forces long term yields much one way or another.

Think of it this way - when was the last time you heard an investor say/blog: "Gee, that government is collapsing and their neighbor doesn't look so hot either - think I'll go buy more government paper promises!".

Not likely; the higher probability bet is they'll increase their defensive positions in short term cash, commodities and gold, and local real estate.