CoinMiner

Could Investors Be Wrong (Again) About Treasury Bonds (TLT)?

I agree that there remain a number of unknown variables out there, which make this market such a tricky one to play. However one thing I'll wager is that geopolitical uncertainty, such as "Iran out of control" - the example used above - rarely forces long term yields much one way or another.

Think of it this way - when was the last time you heard an investor say/blog: "Gee, that government is collapsing and their neighbor doesn't look so hot either - think I'll go buy more government paper promises!".

Not likely; the higher probability bet is they'll increase their defensive positions in short term cash, commodities and gold, and local real estate.

Supply and Demand: Housing Sales Increase in California and Florida

We track actual sales figures for Solano County, two counties west of Sacramento County. Our sales figure graphs are similar to what the author provided for Sacramento. However, I suspect Obvious Adam's suspicion is correct since Solano County is further along the foreclosure curve than Sacramento.

Mr. Poretz also makes a salient point. I know there are owners who pulled their homes off the market at much higher prices, and would like to sell today if they weren't facing so much competition from foreclosure sales. We bought our house at a foreclosure auction at a much lower price than the 'comps'. Folks no longer look at these (foreclosure) sale prices as data outliers, but as the new short/medium term price point - even though purchase at auction carries more risk to the buyer.

Our county sales reflect not so much the banks - but the local RE investors, first time homebuyers and Asian investors looking to park capital in the US, but outside the Treasury bills.

Conference Call Highlights: Who Will Buy Land?

The savvy smally end boutique non-traded REITs and the nimble small investor will buy raw land at this point in the credit cycle. They will conduct due dilligence, initial feasibility, ensure proper zoning and pull first permits on only the choicest remaining parcels.

By the time this is done, they will be able to sell to the developers on the next upswing, as long as they are in a position to hold. Developing small parcels for custom homes featuring the best energy saving and sustainable techniques and materials provides the most viables economic niche at this point in the cycle.