jcinsf

The Deflation Scam

All the stimlus and central bank action will only stabilize banks and not stop the runaway train that is deflation. We have a liquidity trap and not enough velocity to unleash the inflationary beast.

Consider commodities down over 60% across the board; over $7 trillion in wealth destruction; 25% of mortgages underwater and further real estate declines to come; and ton after ton of ugly debt still floating around the financial world (a must-play game of musical chairs with no one willing to get out of their seats).

Wait and see how the E in PE falls off the side of the table, folks. There will certainly be new lows in the markets in 2009.

Sniffing around the edges for some areas of pricing power is fool's gold. So is the talk of going long real gold itself. Sure, ever dog (and investment) has it's day, but gold's was in the past and likely someday, out there, in the future. But, here's the thing: drum roll please. When? What kind of time horizon works in your portfolio? Important question. Inflation will return, sure. But not for a good while and not until the excesses of over a decade get worked off.

Strong dollar, weak earnings, deferred expenditures, increased savings (enough to offset any government stimuli), and possibly devalued currencies. Deflation.