Rattlesnake Bob

Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012?

I am reading a number of fairly optimistic comments here this evening. I think that we Americans have been conditioned to be optimists, and this is good. However, now it is time for us now to be realists by necessity. I do not believe that Americans have recieved full disclosure of the true nature and severity of the banking crisis that has shaken the world. Perhaps it is best that most don't know. Public lynchings are best left to the legendary times of the old West.

By the time the world economy turns around, in maybe fifteen years, the world will be an entirely different place with many large corporations owned by various government entities, some of these entitites yet to be invented. Because of this, and because there is no way to win on Wall Street, except maybe to day trade and be lucky, it would behoove most formerly successful investors to hold cash until the value of stocks is completely deflated, or until they can understand and find a suitable investment, like farmland, to shelter them from risk. I would plead with you all to be cautious and think of your loved ones best interest in all the trades or transactions you make. Also, please consider the potential for rising crime and the steps that you may need to take to protect yourself and your family. The sad truth is that we have been victimized by scoundrels, and many of them are still in positions of influence and power. Good luck to all.


On Apr 05 11:52 PM @TexasER wrote:

> Northstar: this doesn't make sense. If money market funds collapse,
> it will be caused by a run...cash withdrawals.
>
> And if they break the buck and hand back, say $0.80 on the dollar,
> those people will not be keen to move back to equities.
>
> They'll probably buy physical assets. Which will get quite expensive.
>

2009 Depression Will Be Nothing Like 1929

I certainly agree the world is different place economically than in 1929. Today, corporate America is joined at the hip to pension funds that will require the respective companies responsible for them to spend billions to keep them viable in this economic climate. When this dirty little truth hits home to investors, and it shall become an issue very soon, the markets will panic again and again, grind lower. I do believe that there is very good support in the Dow Index at about 4600 to 4700 which represents a 67% retracement from the highs. Unfortunately, at this level, many, if not all pension funds will be broke, which will require another massive bailout from the federal government. Additionally, let's not kid ourselves. The very technology that the author claims will keep us economically viable, will not help us where we are going, and if the author thinks that a global economy will lend support to this disaster, what happens when China cashes in its treasuries, and Russia unwinds economically. Unlike the last depression, the world economy will keep us needy until the whole world is sound again. Is there a bright spot? The United States is the breadbasket of the world, and no other country has better military hardware and soldiers than we. Also, for those with cash, there will be some once in a lifetime bargains when these markets finally bottom next winter. Cash is king. Cheers!

Prepare for Shock and Awe in the New York City Real Estate Market

As a real estate investor, not in New York, I was once caught in a horrific downtrending market that bottomed with a 75% decline. Within twenty years, that real estate appreciated 900% from the lows. If you are going to play the real estate game, you must have deep pockets, but better yet, you must sense the cyclical nature of real estate and buy it when no one else will have it. From my perspective, I don't think New York real estate is even close to a low, yet.

With 75bp Cut, Fed Becomes the Most Aggressive Central Bank

Given the losses by financial and trading institutions of nearly $100 trillion since last spring in the derivatives markets, the reinflation of capital markets should be expected to take years, even if treasuries of world governments had the financial wherewithall to accomplish this task. In fact as the world recession worsens treasuries' ability to bailout capital markets, manufacturers, and the public at large will decline. The last desperate gasp should be banana republic inflation, and a sea of money floating around with the fed desperately trying to monetize debt. After that fails, game over.