36 years old. Native German. I work as an equity analyst at a boutique Investment Bank in Europe. I started investing privately in 2001 - just to get burned badly. Got back to investing my private wealth in 2013 with great success so far. I prefer momentum and value strategies. Typically looking for out-of-favour stocks with quality business models. Use fundamental analysis (competitive strategy, defensibility, structural growth potential, valuation, free cash generation) combined with technical analysis for entry/exit points. I am willing to hold high conviction ideas for 1-2 years but will trade in and out of positions depending on news flow and technical indicators (oversold, overbought).
I am slowly starting to build up positions in selected commodity names including FCX, TECK, BTE, ERF and others.
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Investor. Mission: Help people make money. Degree: Chemistry from Vassar College. Featured author of Momentum Options Weekly Wrap (http://momentumoptionstrading.com/ )
Follow me on Motley Fool Caps at http://caps.fool.com/player/modestus1.aspx .
For short-term ideas about big movers, follow my StockTalks. But please note I am not the best short term stock picker. I am 7-0-1 in the long term, but 0-3 in the short term. If you want better short term pickers, I recommend Michael Filloon and Alfred Little.
Over the last 12 years, I am 7-4-1. I was up 130%, 290%, 105%, 356%, 19%, 275%, 526% from 2001-2007 respectively, and down 9%, 39%, 72% from 2008-2010 respectively. In 2011, I was flat, but some ill-timed trades (should have held AG) caused a loss of 17% and 14% in 2012 and 2013. Note: gains and losses include transaction costs. 2009 and 2010, I traded frequently, adding up transaction costs. That is why I favor longterm holding over shortterm trading.
I invest in all stocks. I don't agree that US stocks are the safest. Want a safe stock, try TEVA. It did not fall much, or at all, during the credit crisis. And generics are the future.
Being a chemistry graduate, I tend to focus of the drug, medical, biotech, and chemical industries. So far, I wrote about 5 medical companies (RPC, OREX, KV.A, PLX, & XOMA). OREX and KV.A were right on target, though KV.A has fallen back hard after reaching their highs, which surprised me. PLX was half right: it did get a negative letter from the FDA, but the options strategy was wrong. For RPC, so far, I have been wrong, and exited my position in mid-May. XOMA also has fallen since I wrote about it.
However, I also cover diverse stocks, from BIDU to NCT. Ignoring other industries is a big mistake. I look for stocks I find undervalued on both a value perspective and a growth perspective, but placing more emphasis on growth. I combine both fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamentals only tell you part of the story.
Anybody can make money. Don't let Wall Street analysts manipulate you. Their analysis is good, but don't take everything they say. Good luck investing, and I will do everything I can to make you money.
Oh, and I invest in rather risky stocks with high potentials. If you are nearing retirement, I don't recommend you copy my portfolio. I will label my stocks with the risk/reward factor. I am adding a watch list with some stocks for retirement investors that I like. All watch list stocks are long term holdings.
BRK.B (very low risk/medium reward)
AAPL (low risk/medium reward)
TNH (low risk/medium reward)
JNS(low risk/medium reward)
RNF (low risk/high reward)
CVRR (low risk/high reward)
NRZ (medium risk/medium reward)
NEWM (medium risk/medium reward)
NCT (medium risk/high reward)
HOV (medium risk/high reward)
RSOL (high risk/high reward)
ESTE (high risk/very high reward)
YRCW (very high risk/very high reward)
JAZZ (medium risk/high reward)
NFLX (medium risk/high reward)
LVS (medium risk/high reward)
SAM (medium risk/high reward)
CMG (medium risk/high reward)
ZNH (medium risk/high reward)
RDY (medium risk/high reward)
MNK (medium risk/high reward)
YZC (low risk/high reward)
CF (low risk/high reward)
TTM (low risk/high reward)
NVO (low risk/high reward)
BIDU (low risk/high reward)
PCLN (low risk/high reward)
CLF (low risk/medium reward)
AAPL (low risk/medium reward)
GOOG (low risk/medium reward)
TEVA (low risk/medium reward)
CIM (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
TNH (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
GOL (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
SID (low risk/medium reward) - dividend stock
I am currently representing Ultimate Day Trader and the Day Trading Skills Contest taking place between Oct 1st 2013 and Nov 29th 2013, please visit www.ultimatedaytrader.com to register and sign-up.