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nclsamy

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  • Position Sizing And Averaging Down [View instapost]
    Bookmarked! Thank you, OM!
    Apr 4 09:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - Poor IPO Debut Creates My #1 Small Cap Upside Opportunity Of 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for update, SMT!
    Mar 21 12:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 March Madness Trading Contest [View instapost]
    Long $EGRX.
    Mar 6 09:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    And yet the GCVRZ price is -4% today. Ugly.
    Feb 28 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    If the $2 million sales are for a full quarter, than it's not looking good. There are to many unknowns in this matter. Reimbursement is one big problem. If the insurance companies think Lemtrada is too expensive, the sales will suffer as there won't be many willing/able to pay $75k. Also the reimbursement limitations may be different from a country to another. For example, in Spain, the insurance companies may not be able to support the same costs like the German ones.

    Ruerd Heeg, thank you for your article, very well written. As you stated, no sales figures from the Northern countries is another problem in calculating the chances for the First Sales milestone to be met.


    We should know more on April 1st.
    Feb 27 05:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    I assume the chances are pretty good. I was thinking of taking losses on this one, but the more I read, I believe they can reach the First Sale Milestone.
    Feb 26 01:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Carl Icahn Push Chesapeake 40% Higher? [View article]
    Appreciate your input, as always!
    Feb 26 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Carl Icahn Push Chesapeake 40% Higher? [View article]
    Thank you for your article! What is your opinion about CHK earnings?
    Feb 26 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum [View instapost]
    "In April, Sanofi will report the first quarter of Lemtrada revenue from Germany. These are the first sales that will count toward the First Sales Milestone of $400 million.

    What would be a good number?
    There are currently three groups of revenue that can contribute to the First Sales Milestone:
    1. Major Markets (excluding the US). Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and the UK
    2. non-Major Markets we know of that have approved Lemtrada: Canada, Australia, Mexico.
    3. non-Major Markets that we do not know that have approved Lemtrada: 29 countries that probably include some European countries like Belgium, The Netherlands, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Poland, etc.

    1. Major Markets:
    Germany's population is 82 million
    France's population is 66 million
    Italy's population is 61 million
    Spain's population is 47 million
    The UK's population is 63 million
    Total Major Market population = 319 million

    2. Non-Major Markets that we know of:
    Canada's population is 35 million
    Australia's population is 23 million
    (I am leaving out Mexico because it may be too poor to contribute much revenue)
    Total non-Major population = 58 million

    3. Some Non-Major Markets that we do not know of:
    Belgium's population is 11 million
    The Netherlands' population is 16 million
    Switzerland's population is 8 million
    Austria's population is 8 million
    Sweden's population is 9 million
    Total non-Majors we don't know of population = 52 million

    Total = 429 million
    Assume the MS population is evenly distributed..

    We need $400 total to reach the First Sales Milestone.
    Germany is 82/429ths of the total population = 19.1%
    In 4 quarters, Germany needs to bring in $19.1% of $400 million = $76.5 million.
    In 1 quarter, Germany needs to bring in 1/4 of $76.5 million = $19.1 million.

    We need to see Germany report at least $15 million in sales when they report Q1 sales in April, 2014.
    $15 million is good because:
    a) there are more countries contributing to the First Sales Milestone.
    b) The trend in sales is usually up."


    This is from user js291955's post on Yahoo finance boards and makes sense to me. Sanofi has already reported $2 M in Lemtrada Sales for Q4 2013 in Germany (although it was only available for a few weeks, not a full quarter). Is it me or this 2M sales don't look very good for future prospects. Thank you!

    I am long $GCVRZ.
    Feb 26 07:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eagle Pharmaceuticals, Inc. - Poor IPO Debut Creates My #1 Small Cap Upside Opportunity Of 2014 [View article]
    Thank you for the article, Southwest Michigan Trader!
    Feb 25 10:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inequality And The Genetic Lottery: 2 Views [View article]
    Excellent article. Thank you!
    Feb 3 07:50 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CECO Environmental Update: The Story Remains Intact [View article]
    Thank you, DAG. Very compelling article! I re-read it today. We may get another buying opportunity soon enough if the market continues to act like this. I'm long CECE from 15.5 and it's one of the stocks I don't want to give up to.
    Jan 23 03:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consolidated Water Update: Know What You Own [View article]
    Many thanks, DAG! Always a pleasure to read your articles!
    Jan 17 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Big Energy Plays To Buy On Recent Dip [View article]
    Thank you for the article! What do you think about SN? They just announced the plan to deliver 100% growth in 2014.
    Jan 15 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Performance And 2014 Updates [View article]
    I'm looking forward to everything you write. Not only for your useful investment theses, but also for every advice. This: "I strongly believe in the time-honored wisdom of the know-thyself maxim, so I understand that my investment approach emanates from my personal belief system, as is true for everyone."..Priceless. Thank you again!
    Jan 9 09:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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88 Comments
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