Trend Surfer

Today in Commodities: All Eyes on the Greenback

Yah, it is a curious move. Dollar is keeping above the level support set by the double bottom, but while trading showed strength yesterday, gold and gold stocks went up anyway. It would seem that there's now and upward moving undercurrent in previous metals.

Mulling the U.S. Dollar's Outlook

The double bottom can also be seen in the daily chart for the usd.

Is the Hated U.S. Dollar About to Rally?

The dollar did a double bottom and completed 2nd bottom yesterday (Nov12) with a strong upwards +'ive belthold candle. The first of the dbl bottom was a morning star completed on Oct25. It is also noteworthy that a morningstar candle was completed 2 weeks ago on the weekly chart.

Far from being a certainty, it would seem that the probably of an interim dollar has been set. It remains to be seen whether we will see this come into fruition next week.

Gold Bullion on a Tear: What Next?

What's next is simply a correction in precious metals and Oil as the USD have put in a double bottom on the daily chart and a Morning Star Candle in the weekly chart. It seems to be completing a hammer for this week.

Seems that Hewison's gold consolidation has likely arrived.

Marc Faber Is Conflicted About the Price of Gold

Faber's comments has to be read in context. Gold will correct and given it's trading relationship with the USD, it means that the USD will also correct, albeit from a downtrend.

The USD weakness will persist according to Faber's comments. However, this weakness is a long-term scenario. As no trend ever goes straight down or up, the USD's downtrend will have bear rallies. Please note that the USD made an intermediate bottom through a MorningStar Candle completed last week on the wkly chart. It's testing the bottom of that this week and forming a possible hammer. Given that it has formed a double-bottom on the daily chart, it is highly probable it will close out the week with a hammer (wkly chart). If so, then there should be a bear rally in the next few weeks ... marking a corrective phase for the gold and oil sector.

It's important to note the Farber did not discuss timing but about the overall economic condition.

Who's Blowing This Bubble - And When Will It Pop?

The market will do what it does. It's but a reflection of the consensus opinion of millions of market participants. As humans are inherently emotional in nature, bubbles will inevitably form. Don't fight it! Profit from it!

The specific timing of when it pops ... well, don't matter. The market will tell you!

After all, capitalism's foundation is the darwinian principle of the only strong (smart/wise) will survive. Any move away from that gets you closer to socialism. That's not a reflection of either camp's value proposition only an honest observation.

There's always going

The Teddy Bears' Picnic: Predicting a Market Crash That May Not Come

The bears has as much credible arguments as do the bulls. When a fundamentalist watches for "green shoots" in economic data, they are just as proned to seeing a Rorschach ink blot as does an inexperienced technical analyst reading a stock market chart.

How the market plays out ultimately will prove either camp right or wrong. All we know is the 'now', and we're now in an uptrend.

When the public looks at an uptick in economic data points, they can either interpret what they're reading +'ively or -'ively. It's all in the spin. That's the fog of war!

As for me, I'll buy when the market is uptrending, and sell when it's downtrending. It don't matter whether a bull or bear is in!

Why Another Stock Market Collapse Could Be Imminent

As much as I agree with the substance of this article, the market will do what it will do. The bull may not be in, but at the moment, it's in a rally. A trader trades in the moment. As such, imputing when the market will turn into your trade will kill your capital.

The economy is in great trouble and an uptick in the economy from a tremendous cut in inventory levels does not spell recovery, but at the moment, if the market believes it's in a bull, as a trader, trade!

When the market's uptrend ends, it will end. As to when that will be, n one knows. Trying to predict when it will end and trading accordingly will get you kicked out of the game.

Existing Home Sales Continue to Improve

The official home resale inventory now stands at 9.4 months. Question: Does this figure take into account all the homes that are in the financial institutions' "foreclosure tunnel"? Does it also take into account all the homes that are now underwater and delinquent, but not yet entered the "foreclosure tunnel"?

If not, what would be the actual months?

Sentiment Still Showing Plenty of Skepticism

Individual investors are more in touch with the street level. They see houses being foreclosed upon, friends losing their jobs, mortgage renewals under Obama's plan failing, banks keeping underwater homes in the 'foreclosure tunnel' & not releasing them to the market, commercial real estate problems, loan losses, no clean-up of subprime mortgages, etc. etc. etc. ... and all this is getting worse.

Versus the 'official stats' which tends to gloss over many factors under various 'definition' differences.

Well, they'll believe it when the economic problems that are manifesting itself at the street level starts to visibly improve. Keeping in mind that the losses of 10 years in investment gains since 1998 makes for a serious reconsideration of risk. After all, it's only 2.5 years from the boomer's retirement age. Under this scenario, I wouldn't gamble on whether the positive earnings surprises are real. After all, the forecasted earnings were largely low-balled with analysts not having greater depth of insight with Sarbane's Oxley. Moreover, the reported revenues have so far been terrible.

Sprott: We’re Now in the Early Stages of a Depression

What I want to know is what will be the 'dropping shoe' that will change the current market sentiment to reflect that of the decline. The current perception is that we reached bottom in March09' and the recent earnings beat is testament to real economic improvements.

Welcome to Economic Hell

Supports the technical case for the Japan scenario to play out in the great US of A.

Is Quantitative Easing Really Inflationary?

Thanks Ricard for your comment. Yea, most of the indicators doe show that we're going down slower.

Cheers.

Conference Board Indicators: Recession Likely Over, Recovery Has Begun

No disrespect to you Mr. Goodnews. But, can a recovery occur when all the problems that started the recession in the first place has not been corrected?

Can positive turn in the leading indicator be taken as an absolute indicator of economic recovery/growth? If so, can you please explain.

I've heard many proclamations about the economy based on the interpretations of indicators. But many professionals also know that a turn in the indicator can be interpreted as a reversal or simply a brief correction. Please explain why you are so strong in your belief that this turn is the real mccoy.

Faber Expects a Total Collapse

Davewmart, thanks for the link. I quite enjoyed Mr. Harrison's article.

Untrusting, I agree with the thesis that there is a huge amount of manipulation going on. But, to what end?

Would it be to engender a positive sentiment so as to ultimately influence business and consumer spending? If so, it would be based on a belief recessionary conditions occur and perpetuate due to sentiment.

Fundamentals has to support asset price inflation. Otherwise, it will ultimately collapse due to dry-up of market participants. GS of all people would know that manipulation without the follow-through of fundamentals is a losing game. Unless of course it is done with the gov't being the ultimate client.