Brent Day's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/323619/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175536-dubai-gauging-the-impact?source=feed#comment-781765 781765
On the issue of the wider Middle East region as you allude to, I do not doubt that work in the Middle East and Far East is sustaining the big U.S. firms at present, as these regions are sustaining many international firms. That Dubai is dead is not in doubt (to me) but other places are in fact very active. I am somewhat more optimistic that the wider region will hold up and remain relatively strong despite the current situation in Dubai. One must realize that Abu Dhabi, for example, has 100 years of proven oil reserves in the ground and the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world. In short they have cold hard cash and lots of it and no default (worst case scenario) in Dubai is going to change that. Abu Dhabi does not need to borrow money from anybody else and they have a very ambitious 2030 plan in place to be one of the leading cities in the world by that time. One of the many differences between Abu Dhabi and Dubai is that Abu Dhabi is resisting an "orgy" of construction and development similar to what Dubai experienced in the 2002-2008 boom, and is instead proceeding in a slow, measured and planned way. One common criticism that most international firms working there have is that it moves too slowly and everything is subject to extensive regulatory and authorities' scrutiny before approvals can be obtained. Qatar has gas and KSA also has lots of oil as we all know. Both countries have very aggressive development plans and are executing them. Iraq is picking up, my firm now has 3 projects there and there is widespread consensus (in this region at least) it will be an increasingly important market going forward. Libya is proceeding with several major developments after decades of nothing and the cash registers there are filled to the brim with oil revenue.

In summary, yes Dubai is dead for at least 5 years but the wider region is not and I personally think its poised to grow strongly and be one of the key areas for global real estate and construction over the next decade. One must realize that the major oil & gas exporters of this region have been the beneficiary of the one of the greatest transfers of wealth in history for the last several years - i.e. money from the west for oil at historically high prices. So yup I know the bubble has popped in Dubai, it hasn't popped elsewhere in the region and I do not believe it will as there are very ambitious development plans in place, the intent to execute those plans and the cold hard cash and hard assets in the ground to make it happen.


On Nov 29 02:01 AM chris coonan wrote:

> I beg to differ with you. I was a principal in a 500 person Architecture
> firm a year ago (now that firm is 300 people), and I know that all
> of the major firms in Chicago are presently engaged in Dubai projects
> (Smith Gill, SOM, Goetch, Gensler, etc. etc. etc) The China and Dubai
> work is the only thing keeping the major players afloat right now.
> If there is a run for the exit in the Middle East it will play havoc
> for US firms. Asia is about half of the international work, and emerging
> locations like Vietnam are having issues right now, so it makes the
> Middle East more important. I think that there is a lag effect in
> play right now.
>
> You might believe the bubble popped already, but I contend that it
> may be just the tip of the iceberg.]]> Sun, 29 Nov 2009 15:17:43 -0500
On the issue of the wider Middle East region as you allude to, I do not doubt that work in the Middle East and Far East is sustaining the big U.S. firms at present, as these regions are sustaining many international firms. That Dubai is dead is not in doubt (to me) but other places are in fact very active. I am somewhat more optimistic that the wider region will hold up and remain relatively strong despite the current situation in Dubai. One must realize that Abu Dhabi, for example, has 100 years of proven oil reserves in the ground and the biggest sovereign wealth fund in the world. In short they have cold hard cash and lots of it and no default (worst case scenario) in Dubai is going to change that. Abu Dhabi does not need to borrow money from anybody else and they have a very ambitious 2030 plan in place to be one of the leading cities in the world by that time. One of the many differences between Abu Dhabi and Dubai is that Abu Dhabi is resisting an "orgy" of construction and development similar to what Dubai experienced in the 2002-2008 boom, and is instead proceeding in a slow, measured and planned way. One common criticism that most international firms working there have is that it moves too slowly and everything is subject to extensive regulatory and authorities' scrutiny before approvals can be obtained. Qatar has gas and KSA also has lots of oil as we all know. Both countries have very aggressive development plans and are executing them. Iraq is picking up, my firm now has 3 projects there and there is widespread consensus (in this region at least) it will be an increasingly important market going forward. Libya is proceeding with several major developments after decades of nothing and the cash registers there are filled to the brim with oil revenue.

In summary, yes Dubai is dead for at least 5 years but the wider region is not and I personally think its poised to grow strongly and be one of the key areas for global real estate and construction over the next decade. One must realize that the major oil & gas exporters of this region have been the beneficiary of the one of the greatest transfers of wealth in history for the last several years - i.e. money from the west for oil at historically high prices. So yup I know the bubble has popped in Dubai, it hasn't popped elsewhere in the region and I do not believe it will as there are very ambitious development plans in place, the intent to execute those plans and the cold hard cash and hard assets in the ground to make it happen.


On Nov 29 02:01 AM chris coonan wrote:

> I beg to differ with you. I was a principal in a 500 person Architecture
> firm a year ago (now that firm is 300 people), and I know that all
> of the major firms in Chicago are presently engaged in Dubai projects
> (Smith Gill, SOM, Goetch, Gensler, etc. etc. etc) The China and Dubai
> work is the only thing keeping the major players afloat right now.
> If there is a run for the exit in the Middle East it will play havoc
> for US firms. Asia is about half of the international work, and emerging
> locations like Vietnam are having issues right now, so it makes the
> Middle East more important. I think that there is a lag effect in
> play right now.
>
> You might believe the bubble popped already, but I contend that it
> may be just the tip of the iceberg.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175557-dubai-the-counter-trade?source=feed#comment-779909 779909

On Nov 27 01:58 PM chris coonan wrote:

> It may be small potato's in the big picture, but Dubai is significant
> as it represents one of the engines that is suppose to power the
> developing world. Dubai is a place that is hiring a lot of Americans
> right now, Architects, Engineers, etc. It will be a big loss for
> America and Europe in weeks to come.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:59:13 -0500

On Nov 27 01:58 PM chris coonan wrote:

> It may be small potato's in the big picture, but Dubai is significant
> as it represents one of the engines that is suppose to power the
> developing world. Dubai is a place that is hiring a lot of Americans
> right now, Architects, Engineers, etc. It will be a big loss for
> America and Europe in weeks to come.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175536-dubai-gauging-the-impact?source=feed#comment-779901 779901

On Nov 27 01:15 PM chris coonan wrote:

> It is a US issue. ALL of the major architecture and engineering firms
> in the US are involved in Dubai right now. Those are the only firms
> which have not laid off half of their staffs right now. If the bubble
> pops in Dubai, it will be a major blow for US Architecture firms
> at the minimum.]]> Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:50:05 -0500

On Nov 27 01:15 PM chris coonan wrote:

> It is a US issue. ALL of the major architecture and engineering firms
> in the US are involved in Dubai right now. Those are the only firms
> which have not laid off half of their staffs right now. If the bubble
> pops in Dubai, it will be a major blow for US Architecture firms
> at the minimum.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168637-how-will-the-u-s-recover-from-the-debt-crisis?source=feed#comment-729171 729171 Sun, 25 Oct 2009 10:53:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111216-is-dubai-a-better-play-on-real-estate-recovery-than-the-u-k-or-u-s?source=feed#comment-334934 334934

On Dec 20 08:05 PM daniel.ocallaghan wrote:

> Is anyone here considering the fact that rental prices in Dubai are
> sky high and only increasing as the number of expats continues to
> pour in.
> The buy to let market couldnt be better, I'd imagine this will spur
> demand for purchases as well?]]> Sun, 21 Dec 2008 08:49:46 -0500

On Dec 20 08:05 PM daniel.ocallaghan wrote:

> Is anyone here considering the fact that rental prices in Dubai are
> sky high and only increasing as the number of expats continues to
> pour in.
> The buy to let market couldnt be better, I'd imagine this will spur
> demand for purchases as well?]]>