Jeff, without expansion the Free Cash flow is $600 million a year, or $4 a share, the FCF yield is around 20%. the company doesnt capitalize new stores but expenses them. PE metric might be wrong measure to use for bulls. IF FCF is correct shares might be worth way more then $15 to $20. SHort interest has upticked from March to May, at 22 million shares or 16%. iF they are shorting because of seemingly rich 30x 75 cent eps estimate for 2009 that might be wrong. Shorts will need to rethink stradegy.
WFMI has some serious nimble competition such as trader joes. I am focusing on WFMI free cash with expansion number of $600 million or about $4 a share instead of the eps metric of 75 cent-ish+ for 2009. Using the PE of 30x the shares may seem pricey, but using the non expansion FCF the yield is around 20%. also since your article i see the short count is 22 million shares or 16% of the float. There is some stubborn short opinions out there, and they might just be wrong.
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if WFMI stopped the expansion and concetrated on upkeep of exisitng stores, free cash flow would be $600 million a year or $4 a share before dillution. The p/e metric of 30x on 75 cent estimate for 2009 is wrong one for the bulls, the FCF situation is the right one.
The interesting thing about the Whole Foods Markets is they expense new stores and dont capitalize them. If WFMI did up keep on exisiting stores and didnt expand the free cash flow would be $600 milllion or about $4 a share before that dillution. So the pe metric might mislead. Focus on the $4 a share free cash flow situation instead of the 75 cent+ eps estimate for 2009 to justify a better price then the recent $18-$20+.
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Brother Maynard what a stellar description on WFMI valution metrics. the P/E is skyhigh and makes you think the shares bounced too far $7/$23+. If your theory the free cashflow yield without expansion is 20% today, what would be a fair FCF yield 15% or 10% or ? the free cash flow would be $4 a share this year while earnings estimates are 75 cents+. Your idea is ignore the 75 cents and concentrate on the $4. brilliant.
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this company has 10 million square feet and might be near saturation. The innovated a few years ago with the hot foods to go, but what have they done for shareholders and customers lately?
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Great article Chris. Chipotle might have good longer term potential as a consumer staple. One point in their favor is most of the entrees comprise of consistantly high quality ingredients yet are close to $6.00 each. Also it doesnt hurt the new long side that the shares have been bashed so much since late 2007.
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The timing of the downgrade on STP is hillarious! Its down 75% in 2 months and now you tell us there is a financing problem for the next 2 quarters? What about demand past that? What about Obama energy plan? We should rate Vishal timing as crappy!
i agree and like the concept of a PEG .11 how on earth is the valuation set so low? Maybe there is perception LDK's operates in the heavily commoditized part of the solar supply chain?
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bounced too far $7/$23+. If your theory the free cashflow yield without expansion is 20% today, what would be a fair FCF yield
15% or 10% or ? the free cash flow would be $4 a share this year while earnings estimates are 75 cents+. Your idea is ignore the 75 cents and concentrate on the $4. brilliant.
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