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Superfly_FR

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  • BlackBerry (BBRY -0.4%) is downgraded to Underperform at Exane BNP, which says its profit pools are drying up. While news flow around the BB10 likely will remain the primary driver for the shares in the short-term, the firm says BBRY's long-term profitability prospects hinge essentially on the longevity of its service revenues, which are "unsustainable." [View news story]
    BES, BBM Money service (read http://t.co/4GfaOEo9bv), Music in AppWorld (20% of AW revenues last quarter) and upcomming BBM [cross-platform] Channels revenues ...

    How badly informed this can be ?
    May 22, 2013. 11:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Cannot Match Competitor Power In India [View article]
    £20/month range in UK starting July.
    Adapt to Indian Market ... and we might have a big winner here, isn't it ?
    May 20, 2013. 11:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung (SSNLF.PK) strengthened its lead as the world's top vendor of mobile phones and of smartphones in Q1, IDC estimates. The South Korean giant increased its market share in the latter category to 32.7% from 28.8 a year earlier and shipped more smartphones than the next four providers combined. Apple's (AAPL) share slipped to 17.3% from 23%. The global cellular phone market grew 4% on year to 418.6M devices, with smartphones outshipping feature phones for the first time. [View news story]
    In very short.
    feature phone = phone + sms + "non graphic apps" (and poor processing power / Storage capabilities)
    smartphone = phone + sms + "all internet related (mail, web, social)" + graphic apps (+ high proc./display/storage cap.)
    Apr 26, 2013. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung (SSNLF.PK) strengthened its lead as the world's top vendor of mobile phones and of smartphones in Q1, IDC estimates. The South Korean giant increased its market share in the latter category to 32.7% from 28.8 a year earlier and shipped more smartphones than the next four providers combined. Apple's (AAPL) share slipped to 17.3% from 23%. The global cellular phone market grew 4% on year to 418.6M devices, with smartphones outshipping feature phones for the first time. [View news story]
    Basically :
    AAPL lost (23-17.3) = 5.7 %
    SSNLF gain (32.7-28.8) = 3.9%

    5.7-3.9 = 1.8 %
    So, it seems that "others" (can't be more specific) are stealing 1.8% aapl market share. Yet, make your bets: Nok ? BBRY ? both ?
    Apr 26, 2013. 07:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: BlackBerry Stock Is Highly Sensitive To (Negative) Sell Side Commentary [View article]
    Some guys really need to smell the flavor of jail and punishment.
    Stop the scam !
    Well done, BlackBerry; was about time.
    Apr 12, 2013. 09:12 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: The Fascinating Journey Will Continue [View article]
    Chinese rumor excluded, I do agree with the above article;
    Q10 is the next catalyst. What we saw with the Z10 (55% buyers were non former BB customers) was incredible and a big surprise. The tempo was; this massive proportion of new customers wasn't expected before months. Now this also means the good figures weren't driven by "Crackberry" people alone.
    As you can easily find on BB fans forums, a lot of them are waiting for the Q10 to pop before they *decide* what model they'll embrace.
    This means that the Q10 launch will be signal for buying, either the Z or the Q, for a large portion of the loyal BlackBerry userbase. What will be their choice will IMHO depends mostly on price. I'm sporting a Z10 for a month now and I - as a former fat-fingers-physical-k... - can testify its touch keyboard is amazingly efficient and fast.
    Disclaimer : Did I mention I'll buy a Q10 as well as an addition to my black Z10 and red Z10LE ? Probably in white, ASAP :)
    Apr 10, 2013. 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Z10 Is Not Enough [View article]
    apps ... just need Netflix and Skype. Others are details.
    They will be there in a breathe, don't worry, BaBe ;)
    Apr 2, 2013. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Z10 Is Not Enough [View article]
    To the question "Is Z10 enough ?" there is a valuable response: Not as such.
    It is only the factual demonstration that BlackBerry10 OS leads BlackBerry to a whole new perspective and its OS is accurate and appealing. Most formerly qualified it as DOA; I was laughing at them when they were, I'm now LOL considering their short position (and waiting for the squeeze: I'm salivating).
    As usual (on SA), you omit the facts/figures that can lead to other reasoning (and I'm back to my answer).

    Only 45% of Z10 customers were former BB users. Yes, you read this right; 55% of Z10 owners came from APPL and GOOG worlds (roughly 50/50) and weren't former BB users. Isn't that a clear sign of the sexiness of the platform ? You tell me ...
    More !
    This figure alone is significant of what we could expect for the Q10 launch (~ April for CAN & EMEA, May for U.S.A), while many curent BB keyboard die-hard users have been waiting for it and others (former BB users) may see here an opportunity to consider a return to they beloved physical keyboard.

    28th ER was nothing but a - mandatory - first step prior BB full force return.
    Heins and his team (CMO Boulben and Dev Relations' Saunders to name few) have made a fantastic work; they changed the brand perception; that's simply huge. Add some top (B10L, Aristo) and medium (R10 curve-like) range devices to this ... and we might have something your kids will learn at school as we learned from appl case. Yes : just.that.big.

    Disclaimer : I'm long BBRY: I'm a StockBerrian !
    My views are based on my economics perspectives analysis and not on financial/trading analysis. This is not an authorized advice to invest in BBRY, just my personal thoughts.
    Mar 31, 2013. 07:11 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Blackberry's 3 Million Subscriber Loss May Actually Be Good News [View article]
    April for CAN and EMEA, May for U.S
    Mar 30, 2013. 07:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Reminds Me Of Palm Just Before The End [View article]
    This kind of note is pure BS.
    This has been discussed and busted a thousand times.
    How can you seriously put this on the table again ?
    Are you some kind of masochist ?
    Mar 28, 2013. 04:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Have You Invested In BlackBerry? [View article]
    Once you own a Z10, you reveal your StockBerrian nature in full ;)
    Mar 27, 2013. 04:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Z10: Zero Sold On Friday, But None Left On Sunday [View article]
    Thank you for the follow-up.

    There's something that should be kept in mind here, when dealing with comportomental behavior (lines) and figures (sales): Both (loyal-ish) BlackBerry users and CMO Frank Boulben's plan are particular.

    As you noted in your article (thx again for that), BB users in U.S will probably prefer an online-shipped-to-home order than a share-my-ice-cream-lineup ;).

    Also (and I believe it' the main point here), F. Boulben's marketing strategy is innovative (in super-short = step one : demos face to face - step two: launch for loyalists, rave them, spread the word on social media - step 3 : engage the cavalry). THAT innovative (I can't remind any other competitor doing this) it is very difficult to compare with other launches, because the steps involved are not the same. A typical launch -a la appl or Sam - would be (in very short again = step 1: organize leaks, step 2: massive advertising, step 3: launch).
    (Edited) The rumored BlackBerry 10 launch budget is $1 Billion; just count what's on the table now ... and what's up in their sleeves.

    Finally, it's even more difficult when you consider that the scales are not the same - at all - to define a successful launch for Z10 alone. Yes, Q10 (the physical keyboard device) is coming and that's a short term event that most analysts simply forget to mention (go figure).

    A simplistic way to resolve this equation would be to snapshot a *blasting* launch event (ip5 or SIII ?) and scale it to current BlackBerry market shares. Then, divide it by 2 (1.5 ? 2.5 ? make your bets !), considering the Q10 release in a few weeks.

    As of date, this means the following scaling parameters (rounded figures):
    Samsung : 50% V.S 8% market share : 6.25 to 1 (12.5 to 1 w/ Q10)
    Apple : 32% V.S 8% market share : 4 to 1 (8 to 1 w/Q10)
    I'll let you do the maths ...
    (and pls excuse my poor English)
    Mar 25, 2013. 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Million Phone Order Isn't What It Used To Be [View article]
    Just, just, just ...
    Think that it is the (pre-)launch. Look at ip5 launch first week of sales (5M) and put this in perspective: one fifth of this amount in one single order. That's impressive, at least.
    Mar 18, 2013. 06:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's Thorsten Heins: What Does He Know? [View article]
    @Tech Advisor : can you tell us more ? Are you referring to the Q1 or the rumored super-loaded "Aristo" device ?
    Mar 3, 2013. 05:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Outsells Competition At The U.K.'s Largest Retail Store And In Business Sales [View article]
    Michael, I'm mixed ...
    Thank you for you research and reporting what I believe much, I mean MUCH closer to reality.
    But ... please, let the stock go down a little ... I need a few more days below $13 to buy more ! :D
    Feb 25, 2013. 12:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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