Seeking Alpha

Superfly_FR

Superfly_FR
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Superfly_FR's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • BlackBerry - Smartphone Hardware Business Needs To Be Jettisoned, And Fast [View article]
    J. Chen :
    "We're going back to our heritage and roots delivering enterprise-grade, end-to-end mobile solutions. As we refocus back to our roots, BlackBerry will target four areas: handsets, EMM solutions, cross-platform messaging, and embedded systems. And, just as important, we will continue to invest in enterprise and security related R&D during our restructuring period. "

    Questions ?
    Dec 4 10:25 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry : My Snapshot. [View instapost]
    hi shubarua1 and thank you for your contribution.
    I did read (as for most about BlackBerry) the interesting article you're referring to.
    The fundings of the reasoning of this rant is far from what I state above. I don't want to go brutal criticism, but to remain short, let's see some of the starting points :
    1. "With their wallets consumers had voted five successive times and determined that an all touch screen BlackBerry was not something they wanted"
    That's miles away from my *crackberrian* perception, dealing with the community and current adopters of the BB10 range. YES, at first, many did wait for the physical keyboard. I for one was a keyboard addict. But if you look at the figures there's an indicator one may want to consider: The # of threads for each device over the most know BlackBerry community: crackberry.com.
    If you add Q10 and Q5 numbers, you get (rounded) 7500 threads.
    Z10 alone is 25K+ threads (add 1.2K for Z30 already).
    Basically we're on the 1 to 3 scale.
    Community has spoken : we LOVE the innovative all touch keyboard. Because, as its physical brother, it's simply the best ever. An experience we didn't believe possible prior. If you look to any competitor, none is investing a dime on keyboards. It's still BlackBerry's "signature" and they will probably continue; but the flagship ... all touch it is.

    2. "Importantly, BlackBerry 10 was supposed to be an amazing upgrade over current BlackBerrys and be available in fall 2012, heavily incenting a delay in purchasing an existing model BlackBerry to wait for the new BlackBerrys. BlackBerry 10 was delayed a couple of times and did not make it to market until April 2013."
    Truth ! But that's nothing related to marketing. This is a lack of technical delivery; OS wasn't mature. (see my point above about Z10 being released quarters afer it has been spec-ied/built)

    This article (is that a "rant" ?) has many valid points, but I believe mosts of "whys" inside get answered by two points :
    a/ Most decisions were made before Heins/Boulben
    b/ Most decisions died in the egg, because they knew it'll be spending money for nothing.

    This resulted in a barely unreadable strategy (where the 3 phases plan was nothing but a communication nutshell), thus media and WS dislike.

    I'm very uncomfortable in the "Armchair CEO" role. I don't pretend I'd be even able to nail particular failures besides the (lack of) delivery problem;time was #1 enemy.
    And I believe - pretty soon - the strategy was "stay alive and give a glimpse of the potential", wrapped in a "let's rock'n'roll this" suit.
    And I believe they (Heins/Boulben) did pretty well at this.
    SP doesn't matter as the company still has cash enough to run its business and can afford a media come-back with as much as a $100million multiples.

    And I believe M. Chen has now cards in his hands and the ability to deal a new hand, far better than M. Heins had.
    Nov 22 06:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top pension fund: BlackBerry lacked recovery plan [View news story]
    ... don't forget the "last but not least" point. Can you read the smooth bitterness between the lines ?
    Nov 22 04:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Marketing Has Failed BlackBerry [View article]
    It's a difficult exercise to raise an analysis against something that didn't happen. There was just ... no "marketing" (quotes, because I believe you're more likely referencing to promotion, just a part of it IMHO).
    My theory (most will call me a revisionist) is that BOD and Heins did forecast the moderate success of the first two devices and realized they couldn't afford to flush the cash with no chance of reasonable ROI.
    I wrote a draft about this theory some days ago, I believe it explains a lot of things ... but looking in the mirror is just an interpretation of reality, so ... for what it worse : http://bit.ly/1cHWn6l
    Nov 21 12:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry's BB10 No Longer Available At The U.K.'s Phones4U [View article]
    That's something interesting if proven true.
    Now the "Firmware" point is quite strange, as all software updates can be addressed OTA (Over The Air) including, of course OS updates.
    Nov 18 11:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Small Step For BBM, One Giant Leap For BlackBerry [View article]
    [Armchair CEO] The goal is to extend BBM IM as a Mobile social Network a la FaceBook.[/Armchair CEO]
    To do so, BlackBerry has created the Channels, a new feature (actually Beta on BB10). You can read about it here : http://bit.ly/HXynDt
    With tools like featured channels, they can monetize brand communication.

    Another major point is BBM Money, which allows money transfer from one device to another. see more here : http://bit.ly/HXymiV

    Both serve different audiences and revenues levels ... but each have massive targets.
    Nov 15 02:40 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry : My Snapshot. [View instapost]
    [missing part about Z30] Also, I don't believe Z30 will steal the market (as stated above) but *future* devices "comparing or superior" would have all the requirements, with "big circus" promotion, to meet success.
    Nov 11 06:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry : My Snapshot. [View instapost]
    Thanks for your comment Alansmithee.
    Well, I believe my CrackBerrian status is clearly exposed in the additional disclosure, but you're perfectly right about the thread at CrackBerry (*). Are you one of our usual visitors ? You may expose your nick then, as mine is strictly the same. I believe your short history here does not reflect your real profile, does it ?

    Now for people you describe as weak, to the point of investing based on forums posts in a fan dedicated web site ... I'd suggest you rewind to OP (and probably tens of other posts) and read the huge warning.
    As much as I'm concerned with some of "us" losing (paper or real) money, I've never read anyone complaining. I believe you think people are dumber than they are.

    The "$100 party" you're referring to is more a funny gimmick than anything else. And nowhere you'll find someone giving a timing close to anything "soon" in our pleasant exchanges about it.

    "Past revisionist history"; how could it be anything else, since we don't know what really happened? Plus, this is my personal view, not history.

    Z30 has the mandatory specs (and more) to execute anything under BB10 OS in a breathe, even under heavy charge and 8 apps running full multi-task (I mean real multi-task).
    I understand that you may claim the marketing appeal of over spec-ied devices ... I'm talking about user experience; mine is 20 days long already, every day, as my single device. I can testify those specs are perfectly serving the device for two days without charge, hang, slowdowns or reboot.

    "Z30 is a phone that doesn't exist to consumers"
    I believe you've been somehow exasperated by this blog post and forgot to read it fully. Z30 is yet "to come" for many countries and I've clearly stated that promotion was near zero. I don't think either I forgot to mention the company has made errors.

    (*) I support BBRY and I buy shares (http://bit.ly/12GqZ8H), was started Feb 2011 as a reaction and supportive effort, with as few as 5 shares. It's now over 54K posts and 2Mil+ views. As the OP, I've been following it on a day by day basis.
    Nov 11 05:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of BlackBerry Pessimism [View article]
    @marcap make it $4Bil cash with tax returns and FF&co (yet add $1Bil debt).
    Nov 11 05:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet On BlackBerry's Last Stand [View article]
    Fair opinion,

    May I suggest - as an hypothesis- to add the possible options bellow :

    1. a counter-balance of $1Bil (tax refund - expected was $500Mil)
    2. Mike L. or any other frustrated bidder running an hostile takeover
    4. The publication of multi-platform BBM figures (some may value these high grade users up to $?? each X 80Millions -as of date)
    5. Major services/products announcements (BES in the cloud and highly *rumored* PlayBook2)
    6. Android market inclusion as in "download directly any Jelly Bean android app to your BB10 devices" ... and the end of the "app gap". [this is not fantasy, still a rumor yet, before the launch of "next branch" BB10 OS : 10.2.1.xxx]

    Those currently holding in the $10s, simply guessing some day BlackBerry value will be over book value ($16 - $18 ?) again may, in shorter term (2-4 Q ?) enjoy a fair return.

    You've probably understood that I'm not a trader; yet I'm aware there might be other stock to invest in , at lower risk. But at the current valuation - almost equal to their cash in hands - I believe the reward may be quite astoning. Astronomical ? Well ... yes, I may target the moon ... ;)

    Disclaimer: I am long BBRY and long supporter of BlackBerry.
    Sorry for my English.
    Nov 8 11:36 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Research In Motion [View article]
    About Samsung Knox, it appears that it's simply ... not ready and it will be limited to few Sammy devices. Not really a BYOD/MDM competitor ... and have zero "real life" proof of efficiency. How could we possibly compare it to BES ?

    http://bit.ly/1baRkJq
    Nov 6 04:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of BlackBerry Pessimism [View article]
    Andreas,
    let's use the proper words. Download figures virtually means nothing, unless you remember BBM has been downloaded 10million times in the first 24hrs of availability, and two weeks later is still in the top 10 free apps worldide - figures that would have make any whatsapp-like company skyrocket in WS love.

    It is 20 million ACTIVE USERS in a week (sorry for cap e.g bold) that we're talking about (http://bit.ly/1hrKbLc). It means that BBM user base grow 33% (from 60m to 80m) in a week.
    What does it tell us ? That the BBM/BlackBerry brand has still a strong value + positive recognition and while many have left, they still regret several features/usage they had and loved on their previous devices.

    Besides the "trojan horse" theory, it's also a good point to bring interest from former consumers who, obviously, don't even know what a BB10 device looks like ... more: that it could even exist.

    Bottom line:
    What device in the world - whatever its product name in the range - do you name with its brand name besides BlackBerry's? Harley Davidson's and Stetson's?
    How comes nobody gives a dime for brand valuation; did everyone forgot about marketing and branding lessons ?
    That alone could/should count in a significant % of book value. And it's not because the BBRY ticker is killed by (many) analyst that it is not in the top recognized brands (BlackBerry and BBM) in the world anymore.

    obvious disclaimer : I'm long BBRY.
    Nov 6 03:42 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of BlackBerry Pessimism [View article]
    Thanks George,
    as usual, your article gives a possible perspective I share.
    Nov 6 03:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Research In Motion [View article]
    Sorry if I did, I didn't intend to manipulate anything. I just believe it is this "sum of features" all together in a single application that makes the difference.
    Then WhatsApp ... well ... I did used it on my first BB10 device and all I can say - as a user - is that the copycat is far from the original.
    Nov 5 09:45 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Research In Motion [View article]
    Please note it's 20 million additional BBM Active users (from 60mil to 80mil in a week), not downloads. These 20mil are iOS and Android users, not BlackBerry's.
    One also have to think about monetization other IM don't offer, such as channels (still beta) but also BBM Money (popular where WS omits to watch : http://bit.ly/18Vyrc3).

    No, BBM isn't just "another IM". Its legendary low-cost, fast and proven (D/R signs) delivery, files transfer, screen sharing(*), voice/video conferencing(*), group management and overall features make this a real communication tool, expandable - under BES environments - for unmatched secured communications in enterprises.
    (*) Expected on iOs and Android by the end of the calendar year.

    Also while I admit there are solid competitors (mobileIron to name one) in the MDM/BYOD segment, pretending they *all* compete and match BlackBerry BES10 level of security/integration is illusion. In fact none really does, all still *compare to* BES as it is - as of date - the only real proven safe reference in this area. If you've noticed the e-advertising campaign MI is rolling right now, you know what I mean.

    BES10 Balance (http://bit.ly/18Vyrc4) may be the "next thing" anyone annoyed to carry multiple devices would rave for and BES10 secured containers for iOS and Android devices will solve current administrators headache and expenses.

    In the Cloud area, the BES10 solution is arriving (http://zd.net/13xe4T5), with very easy set up and fairly aggressive pricing, targeting mid-sized and small companies, a segment where room is free (or such).

    We have to wonder what would happen if a solid alliance in the enterprise area pops. We saw that, apparently, no big firm was tempted by BBRY as a whole. But new CEO and BOD may turn this to a partnership or find equity partner(s) in very specific areas.

    Next weeks/months/years will be fascinating.
    Disclaimer : I'm (very) long BBRY.

    P.S: please excuse my approximative English, not my mother tongue, obviously !

    Edited: sorry, I forgot to thank you for the interesting developments at the end of the article.
    Nov 5 09:29 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
320 Comments
767 Likes