Seeking Alpha

Superfly_FR

Superfly_FR
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Superfly_FR's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Sell BlackBerry Now [View article]
    That was short.
    Sorry, I don't buy it.
    I do not sell nor buy. I hold !

    P.S: it's not airplay that connects iOs to QNX. It's mirrorlink. From the CCC (Car Connectivity Consortium) where QNX is eminent. http://bit.ly/1g7MUoT
    Mar 28 01:46 PM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Opens Up BlackBerry Floodgates... Again [View article]
    The news would be Fairfax added $15million to their position on free market lately.
    We've read so many "falling knife" "cat bounce", "spiral of death" or "bleeding cash" scenario already (I mean for the last 4 years !) that one could reasonably question these.
    BlackBerry didn't succeed as some (I must confess, me included) expected with the launch of BlackBerry10. While truly revolutionary and best of class behind the scene, their new OS learning curve, the few-but-mandatory missing apps added to the confusion and noise ("they're dead already") many spread purposely prevented their new platform to meet the general market. Can't deny that.
    Yet - and still - in a long term (years) perspective, recent focus on enterprises - where you add multi platform services revenues to hardware revenues - can definitely lead BlackBerry back to operational profits, the mandatory step prior any wide offensive out of the enterprise market.
    So what to monitor ?
    BES10 is now out of the trial period and BES10 in the cloud is near to launch. These - both in terms of revenues generation and market share - are the indicators we have to focus on.
    Of course, next device ('Jakarta') success is also an important point, as it will reveal the new entry point pricing and expose more details about BlackBerry's and Foxcon's alliance.
    As a strong (long) holder, that's all I care about.
    Oh, maybe also when I see time scales ("the more shorted ... past two years") stretching ... but this may be my rosy glasses again.
    discl : long BBRY / sorry for bad English.
    Feb 10 06:21 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Take An Order! [View article]
    This deal was initiated months ago (under Heins) and went threw the whole *competitive* testing. This demonstrates the latest BES 10.2 features knocked the competitors down, for the above mentioned reasons.

    Also, in the "struggling for survival" (much exaggerated, IMHO) situation you describes, if the ROI wasn't short termed and substantial, the BOD will have put a foot on the break. No doubt.

    Last, Z10 at its current ASP is far more adapted to a massive deployment than the just released Z30 (a 5" phablet that may not fit most usages or users tastes).
    Dec 17 09:05 AM | 21 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Z10 Likely To Fail, Q10 And Q5 Give Hope [View article]
    Specs ... what an outdated analysis method. Have you made some real world testing ? C'mon ...
    Jun 17 05:24 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    So basically, you hold for a year and then throw the towel 30 days before E.R ? I don't get it. You don't even play the swing before/after E.R ?
    Disclaimer: I'm very long BBRY. I don't play highs/lows or any kind of day trading.
    May 30 09:23 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: From 'On The Brink Of Failure' To Doing Acquisitions, In Just A Few Months? [View article]
    There's clearly a bold changement in the direction. Thanks for nailing it.

    John Chen seems confident enough to engage investment. We can also remember he stated (was it CNBC ITW ?) that they were going back to the recruitment ...

    Investment, recuitment, cash ... hey, investors; don't you like this new startup ? (/jk)
    Aug 1 03:27 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry rallies after Chen talks partnership efforts [View news story]
    IBM will provide BES Hosted for Europe ...
    http://bit.ly/WFTVf9

    Quote : "The company said on its Web site that German mobile management company Isec7 will provide worldwide hosting, and three Germany-based companies -- Solvito, Systag Systemhaus and BFI -- will provide that service in their countries. IBM's Germany subsidiary will also provide service to European customers, and Exchange My Mail will cover North America. "

    "nothing" ... right.
    ;) :D
    Jul 24 12:45 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QNX Will Not Save BlackBerry [View article]
    Sorry, but again, you missed it.
    It's not "QNX" and the infotainment niche market (where QNX is king) you have to focus on but the incredible IoT (Internet of Things) market ( from 1.9 billion devices today to 9 billion by 2018. That year, it will be roughly equal to the number of smartphones, smart TVs, tablets, wearable computers, and PCs combined - Read more: http://read.bi/1gGEZnx) : that's what a wise investor should monitor as the next big picture and profit source.

    In this emerging field, QNX has de facto a strong leadership due to these specific points : ubiquity (the capability to interact flawesly with other environments/OSes), security (do you really have an Android home automation system ? - I'm worried about your safety), network infrastructure (BlackBerry NOC). Chen's goal here is not only infotainments systems, but to lead the overall market of the IoT. As he clearly stated in this interview that I strongly suggest anyone interested in $BBRY to watch : http://t.co/z74WLREDRV

    Once again, this article is very, very oriented in a direction one could reasonably contest as anything informative. In that perspective, I'd suggest to refer back both to your disclaimer and history.
    Mar 31 03:46 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Future Of Research In Motion [View article]
    Please note it's 20 million additional BBM Active users (from 60mil to 80mil in a week), not downloads. These 20mil are iOS and Android users, not BlackBerry's.
    One also have to think about monetization other IM don't offer, such as channels (still beta) but also BBM Money (popular where WS omits to watch : http://bit.ly/18Vyrc3).

    No, BBM isn't just "another IM". Its legendary low-cost, fast and proven (D/R signs) delivery, files transfer, screen sharing(*), voice/video conferencing(*), group management and overall features make this a real communication tool, expandable - under BES environments - for unmatched secured communications in enterprises.
    (*) Expected on iOs and Android by the end of the calendar year.

    Also while I admit there are solid competitors (mobileIron to name one) in the MDM/BYOD segment, pretending they *all* compete and match BlackBerry BES10 level of security/integration is illusion. In fact none really does, all still *compare to* BES as it is - as of date - the only real proven safe reference in this area. If you've noticed the e-advertising campaign MI is rolling right now, you know what I mean.

    BES10 Balance (http://bit.ly/18Vyrc4) may be the "next thing" anyone annoyed to carry multiple devices would rave for and BES10 secured containers for iOS and Android devices will solve current administrators headache and expenses.

    In the Cloud area, the BES10 solution is arriving (http://zd.net/13xe4T5), with very easy set up and fairly aggressive pricing, targeting mid-sized and small companies, a segment where room is free (or such).

    We have to wonder what would happen if a solid alliance in the enterprise area pops. We saw that, apparently, no big firm was tempted by BBRY as a whole. But new CEO and BOD may turn this to a partnership or find equity partner(s) in very specific areas.

    Next weeks/months/years will be fascinating.
    Disclaimer : I'm (very) long BBRY.

    P.S: please excuse my approximative English, not my mother tongue, obviously !

    Edited: sorry, I forgot to thank you for the interesting developments at the end of the article.
    Nov 5 09:29 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Warning: BlackBerry Stock Is Highly Sensitive To (Negative) Sell Side Commentary [View article]
    Some guys really need to smell the flavor of jail and punishment.
    Stop the scam !
    Well done, BlackBerry; was about time.
    Apr 12 09:12 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry - Carrier Support Is Evaporating [View article]
    BlackBerry does not sale Enterprise devices directly. They do with carriers "in the middle". This article is typical: dealing with consumer markets when BlackBerry strategy is now mostly focused on governments and enterprises (where the money is) ...
    More, this vision of BlackBerry as a "device maker" is now dated, as Chen explained the new scheme and BlackBerry going "horizontal" and delivering value within cross platform software and services like BES and BBM.

    I guess time is needed until Chen's vision is understood ... This may help : http://bit.ly/1fCd0GP . It's a long and precise analysis of what went wrong and where the expectations are. No sugarcoating, Kevin Michaluk's style with René Ritchie from iMore (apple fans community).

    I do understand that $BBRY might not be the star one may want to focus on for a short term trade. But I believe, IMHO, it's pretty unfair to wipe a whole strategy - apparently - ignoring what it's all about.

    To the author : I must admit your conclusion can't be that much discussed, given I omit this sentence : "But the company does not have the resources to develop and market smartphone globally."
    With the new Foxconn deal (which is part of the answer you may want about how they'll stop the "bleeding") $3Bill cash and the Governments & Enterprises focus, I do believe this cannot be stated as such.

    Side note : You also seem to omit the security/privacy consciousness the Snowden case has raised ... You might want to read this (especially the conclusion) : http://bit.ly/1dz2FcT
    Jan 16 12:59 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of BlackBerry Pessimism [View article]
    Andreas,
    let's use the proper words. Download figures virtually means nothing, unless you remember BBM has been downloaded 10million times in the first 24hrs of availability, and two weeks later is still in the top 10 free apps worldide - figures that would have make any whatsapp-like company skyrocket in WS love.

    It is 20 million ACTIVE USERS in a week (sorry for cap e.g bold) that we're talking about (http://bit.ly/1hrKbLc). It means that BBM user base grow 33% (from 60m to 80m) in a week.
    What does it tell us ? That the BBM/BlackBerry brand has still a strong value + positive recognition and while many have left, they still regret several features/usage they had and loved on their previous devices.

    Besides the "trojan horse" theory, it's also a good point to bring interest from former consumers who, obviously, don't even know what a BB10 device looks like ... more: that it could even exist.

    Bottom line:
    What device in the world - whatever its product name in the range - do you name with its brand name besides BlackBerry's? Harley Davidson's and Stetson's?
    How comes nobody gives a dime for brand valuation; did everyone forgot about marketing and branding lessons ?
    That alone could/should count in a significant % of book value. And it's not because the BBRY ticker is killed by (many) analyst that it is not in the top recognized brands (BlackBerry and BBM) in the world anymore.

    obvious disclaimer : I'm long BBRY.
    Nov 6 03:42 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Party Is Over For Chen, BlackBerry [View article]
    Same arguments for weeks, months, years ... "they're dead already" ... old song that you and a bunch of shorts rinse and repeat like an old song you hate but can't get rid of.
    It's not clear why you keep telling us, longs, to jump ship and avoid investing here. Maybe the fact that you never respond to comments is a clue. I'm still wondering why S.A is allowing such practices, clearly depreciating overall value of others - pro and cons- analysis, backed up with valuable argumentation.

    One more time, I gave you a cent or two ... well, I guess it's your only goal here.
    Apr 27 07:28 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Bet On BlackBerry's Last Stand [View article]
    Fair opinion,

    May I suggest - as an hypothesis- to add the possible options bellow :

    1. a counter-balance of $1Bil (tax refund - expected was $500Mil)
    2. Mike L. or any other frustrated bidder running an hostile takeover
    4. The publication of multi-platform BBM figures (some may value these high grade users up to $?? each X 80Millions -as of date)
    5. Major services/products announcements (BES in the cloud and highly *rumored* PlayBook2)
    6. Android market inclusion as in "download directly any Jelly Bean android app to your BB10 devices" ... and the end of the "app gap". [this is not fantasy, still a rumor yet, before the launch of "next branch" BB10 OS : 10.2.1.xxx]

    Those currently holding in the $10s, simply guessing some day BlackBerry value will be over book value ($16 - $18 ?) again may, in shorter term (2-4 Q ?) enjoy a fair return.

    You've probably understood that I'm not a trader; yet I'm aware there might be other stock to invest in , at lower risk. But at the current valuation - almost equal to their cash in hands - I believe the reward may be quite astoning. Astronomical ? Well ... yes, I may target the moon ... ;)

    Disclaimer: I am long BBRY and long supporter of BlackBerry.
    Sorry for my English.
    Nov 8 11:36 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The RIM-Pire Strike Back? [View article]
    Really ?
    Devcon + BB10 jam ?
    Why have you been there ? For a free device ?
    Jul 24 08:39 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
336 Comments
806 Likes