Malkiel

The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories

It should be understood that the longer any "temporary" supply or production gluts last, the greater the chance that conservation measures and new technologies will quietly melt away old levels of demand. If we have 3-5 years of sideways oil price movement we may come out in the other end to an America with universal availability of multifuel automobiles, attractive tax breaks for home energy retrofits, and a compact fluorescent bulb in every socket. These are the types of quiet trends that could keep oil prices stagnant for decades, with or without a Chinese market...