Malkiel

Apple: Steve Jobs Is Fine, and We Still Hate Netbooks

Beware of companies that engage in heavy spin, a leading indicator of tendency toward self-deception and/or hiding things from the consumer, both losing propositions. As bad as Microsoft has behaved during their Vista disaster, the crock of bs being dealt out here by the Apple corps is even more arrogant and brazen. The netbooks and their hardware configurations are brilliant market penetration strategies which would once have been the type of innovation Apple would have brought to market first. Everybody knows you aren't going to use an iphone in place of a laptop--readability and ergonomics are permanent barriers to excessive miniaturization. Either Apple is sincere in foolishly believing they can ignore this trend, or their dissing of the configuration is unnecessary credibility-damaging posturing as they bide their time.

Apple has blown a golden window of opportunity over the last year to capture serious market share. It's more important to get their OS on many desktops than it is to keep selling the OS on proprietary desktops which are so expensive that they can never capture market. Whoever controls the most-used software controls the internet, a not-inconsequential prize. Windows 7 is going to create a buying sensation among the public which has held off their computer purchases and if it loses back all its recent gains in market share Apple may be forced to change its business model and finally admit, as Pete Najarian said recently, that they're really essentially a software company...

Life After Steve Jobs: Handicapping Apple’s Back Bench

I disagree that whatever team might replace him would carry on the company's policies. There are two controversial aspects of Apple's policies that seem specific to Job's thinking that would not survive in transition: keeping Apple a boutique operation rather than marketing to the the masses, and holding on to huge amounts of cash rather than using it to expand the business. I doubt any business-school grad is going to stay on those paths once Chairman Mao is out of the picture...

Apple to Experience Market Share Madness

I'm kind of perplexed here--did I read the same article as everyone else? It sounds to me from the figures presented that Apple is stuck with the same market share for most of its products that it had this time last year. It also sounded like the main basis for believing there would be a Mac breakout is that Steve Jobs said so. Don't get me wrong, I would love to see a Mac breakout, but if I were a Mac fanboy I might be a little more concerned that, objectively speaking, the data isn't showing one happening yet...

8 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Now

While it wouldn't be a mistake in the long run to buy shares now, no company, not even Apple, is going to be able to swim against the next downleg of the market which we know is coming between now and November. Why not wait a few weeks or a month or two for an even bigger discount?

The Radio and Recording Industries' Unnecessary Roughness

Your suggestion would seem good except for one problem: for reasons unclear and unexplained, stations owned by the Clearchannel media monopolists are more or less boycotting new music in favor of "oldies" formats. Nobody can convince me that this is what the public is looking for: either there's an unseen economic penalty to playing new music, or Clearchannel is working from some agenda. In either event, it will take more than your suggestion to get them to start playing new music again on their stations...

Need Netflix Worry Over Apple's Movie Rentals?

I'm not getting the choices some companies make--why not just make Netflix compatible with Apple OS and head off that problem for years to come--or at least carve out your share of business among Apple software users up front and enjoy the revenue stream? Why cheap out on developing the inevitable?

Obama is Apple, Hillary is Dell

You missed the right metaphor, Cooper. Hillary is Microsoft, not Dell, and is like Microsoft is hated even among those who are invested in her...

13 Predictions for 2008

I agree that an independent run for the presidency is highly likely this election, but I don't see any scenario where the result will be anything other than taking 2 Republican votes for every 1 Democratic vote and guaranteeing the White House to the Democrat...

Jim Cramer's 10 Predictions for 2008

I predict that in 2008 a lot of companies will position themselves well in their industries, and tech companies will go a lot of interesting places that will make them money later, but nobody's share price will do anything other than tread water because the economy and credit crisis will cause stock market downturns at the end of each quarter as institutional investors engage in "window undressing" to get rid of holdings that didn't meet guidance, which will be everybody...

Apple’s Momentum Will Continue

Alas, it avails nothing to be a growth stock at the beginning of a 3-year recession; even the best stocks can't trend upward in price against a stream of selling, and as economic conditions deteriorate even Apple's sales will be affected by weakened consumer spending. Anyone who buys apple stock today will be staring at the same share prices at this time next year, no matter how good a story the company may be...

RBC Bullish on Apple: Strong Back-To-School Mac Sales; “Sustained iPhone Momentum”

The term "anointed" comes from Cramer, whose theory as a hedge fund guy is that harried hedge and mutual fund managers who have to do a lot of buying to do make life easy for themselves by deciding which stocks within a given quarter have solid up trends and ride those horses because they know all their competition will do the same, reliably buoying the price. (for mutual fund managers it's part of the quarterly "window dressing" process, where they want their shareholders to see names in the quarterly report that look solid and respectable). I believe in the concept, and it was pretty clear from the behavior of the stock in Q2-3 that Apple was one of the "anointed" (Cramer called Apple one of his "four horsemen of the apocalypse, ponies you could ride all the way to the end of the quarter).

Unfortunately, the horses have stumbled on the credit crisis and I wouldn't be surprised if the funds choose new ponies later in the year if the market recovers, regardless of Apple's fundamentals. It ain't fair brother, but it's the way the market works...

When the Market Sneezes, Apple Catches Its Cold

In your discussion I find the seed of the problem for a stock like AAPL: if the market downturn damages enough hedge funds there won't be enough players out there competing for the shares in the market and price moves may take multiple years rather than the 6-month upmoves we've become accustomed to for "anointed" stocks. We'll be back in the world of value investing for the long term--yikes!--so unfair, now that AAPL's time in the sun has come...

RBC Bullish on Apple: Strong Back-To-School Mac Sales; “Sustained iPhone Momentum”

Alas, I don't expect the market to accelerate back to where it left off last month. AAPL is at a golden moment as an anointed stock, but I believe it won't be able to overcome the flat market I expect for the rest of the year. Notice how the institutions unceremoniously dumped AAPL with the rest of the trash last week? Not an indication that they expect it to keep climbing against the market...

IPod vs. Satellite Radio: The Battle For Consumers' Hearts

"I'm not a retiree or a drug runner, but I get your point. Except that, for this purpose, pre-recording Podcasts and concerts onto an iPod works just as well."

Why does everybody assume that music is the only content? Live weather, news, sports, and discussion are big programming areas that aren't even available as downloads. This type of programming is a shootout between radio, tv, and satellite, with the ipod not even in contention (though perhaps the iphone can play...)

During Stormy Days For Apple, Remember The Fundamentals

Unfortunately, as you indicate, investors are distracted right now and it will be interesting to see whether they even notice the anointed stocks through the Fall or whether Apple and everything else is facing a 20% decline regardless of fundamentals. I would think at this point that we'll be lucky to see AAPL share prices return to their recent level by the end of the year, notwithstanding an expected continuous stream of good news.