swisswiss

Pay No Attention to the 140 P/E Behind the Curtain

But realize the beauty of it--"evaporflation" defies rationality, which means there is no reason the Dow can't float to 11,000 or 12,000 or higher. All you need is fake money to play, and viola, it rises ... like hydrogen.

Fourth Worst Start to October Ever

Two words to the wise: Persian Gulf.

Stocks May Not Fully Correct Until 2010

Two words: Persian Gulf.

Stocks May Not Fully Correct Until 2010

Two words: Persian Gulf

51.68% in 165 Days

This latest Bernanke-fueled rally confirmed--it's a pro market for technicians driven by momentum based off Bernanke's cues. You can write the script--the pro's drive another 300-500 points on the Dow, then small investors move in. It's all good--until Jan/Feb/Mar. 2010 when consumer spending craters (then back to Dow 8000) or when Israel bombs Iran (then back to Dow 6000).


On Aug 22 09:04 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

> Bull markets have volume.
>
> Show us the volume.

The Specter of Excess Capacity

With policies and incentives resulting in fertility rate under 2.0, what do you expect? Putin sees the problem in Russia (fertility rate 1.4), but the legacy of state-funded abortion isn't easy to undo (China: word to the wise).

Europe Is Recovering More Quickly than U.S. - Why?

Their problem isn't at the consumer level, but corporate. Many German, Denmark, and British companies were on a U.S. buying spree 2006 and 2007--and now debt service is a b___ch.

Europe Is Recovering More Quickly than U.S. - Why?

I couldn't have said it better. The French and Germans keep a lot of cash handy--and the "home equity piggy bank" wasn't cracked open.


On Aug 14 03:05 PM chap08 wrote:

> Why? Because this is fundamantally a debt crisis and France and Germany
> never participated in the debt bubble in the same way that the US
> and the UK did. Their banks and consumers have not had to face the
> same kind of crisis. De-leveraging does not have the same meaning
> for them.
>
> They're not out of it yet though. It is untrue to say that there
> has been no stimulus spending, so the question remains, what happens
> when this is dropped. The banks may yet have problems with commercial
> real estate and eastern europe. Also, troubles lie in wait for the
> Euro - the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) are suffering, Ireland
> too.

GE Results Validate Theory: Severe Economic Contraction

The process is simple: A state like Pennsylvania gets over $200 million in ARRA funds for weatherization. They get federal funds for education, etc. The State Treasurer holds that money for months, putting it into funds. State after State plays this game. Viola--upward market valuation, not because equities are inherently more valuable, but demand makes it that way.


On Jul 17 01:25 PM conceptwizard wrote:

> The Government is very effective in manipulating the markets. We
> get good news on GS from Merideth Whitney and the market rallies.
> We get bad news on GE and the market rallies...we get no news and
> the market rallies. They are going to hold this market up no matter
> what. Blow that bubble!
> PPT go team go!

San Francisco Fed Concerned About Consumer Deleveraging

The middle-class is in a two-way squeeze--loss of wealth and loss of income, which creates a protective incentive to save. The next two-way squeeze: higher taxes and inflation, which will erode savings. Goodbye, middle-class. It was nice while it lasted.

Mass Layoff Events Accelerating

Also consider--along with the unemployed, the massive number of employed with 10% salary reductions--or higher.

NYSE Runs Out of Gold Bars: What Happens Next?

Right on the date facts--but the interpretation that "conservatives started pushing the myths of founding fathers who wanted to incorporate God into government" overlooks a lot of historical facts.
John Adams said: "Avarice, ambition, revenge, or gallantry, would break the strongest cords of our Constitution as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other." All the States had established churches at the signing of the Constitution--including Jefferson's Virginia. What did they perceive about the preconditions of a prosperous society that today we dismiss?

On Mar 28 05:19 AM Hillsfar wrote:

> Point of fact. "In God We Trust" was placed on U.S. coinage in 1865.
> It
was placed on U.S. paper currency starting in 1957.
>
> The
Pledge
> of Allegiance begun in 1892 didn't have "Under God" in it until
the
> Knights of Columbus began a campaign that ultimately led to success
in
> 1954.
>
> As evident in their writings, our founding fathers were
greatly
> into the separation of Church and State - many having escaped
persecution
> for their religious beliefs in Europe. It was only later
that
> religion started getting added in and conservatives started
pushing
> the myths of founding fathers who wanted to incorporate God
into
> government.

Why I See Long-Term Deflation

A fundamental so big that it's overlooked--the number of abortions since 1973 totals 49,551,703. And over 20% of that number would be at childbearing age today. While nothing says that depopulation causes deflation, the absence of vigorous population growth is an aggravating factor. The exciting conclusion: the long play is in Brazil.