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  • Rex Energy - Group Swoon Provides Rare Opportunity [View article]
    It may be cheap but then so is TPLM or EOX. So either pick your poison or buy all three.
    Jan 16 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patterson Lake Asset Consolidation: Fission Aims For Fusion With Alpha [View article]
    Funny I have not seen any comments on seekingalpha about the upcoming Canadian/EU free trade agreement. This agreement could put Fcu.v and even Denison in play.

    Areva is traveling the world for U when the best bet might be in Saskatchewan.
    Oct 29 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Monster In The Making [View instapost]
    These are appox: AMW has about 30 million shares and FCU around 150 million.

    AMW spinco will have 3 mill in cash and some assets. That means it is worth at least 10 cent per share of AMW.

    FCU spinco will have 3 million in cash and some other assets. So FCU spinco is worth at least 2 cents per share of FCU. To get to the price of the AMW spinco those other assets have to be worth at least 12 million (12/150 = 8 cents). And since Mr Market is having this large spread between AMW and FCU those FCU other assets have to worth much more than 12 million.

    In less than two months we will see if this plays out as presented.
    Sep 28 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Monster In The Making [View instapost]
    Mr Shaw has valued the Alpha spinco at .30 a share. I realize that is a guess but it is as good a guess as any.

    I think if one was interested in buying into PLS, then currently the way to do it would be through Alpha.

    My posts where my wondering out loud on a deal that is almost surely going to close and close in a little over a month -- why the large spread. Yesterday that spread got to over 7%. If one figure that on a yearly return is works out to over 40%.
    Sep 27 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Monster In The Making [View instapost]
    All prices are in US $ and I am excluding the spincos:

    Currently 9/26/13 esoff is trading at 7 - 7.04 and fcuuf is at 1.29 - 1.31
    The merger is to take place some time in Nov and I place the odds of merger taking place at around 95% (this is my guess other can differ at the percentage). So currently buying esoff at 7.04 will be worth about 7.38 (1.29 x 5.725) or about 5% more than currently trading. Yesterday that percentage was up over 7%. On an annual percentage basis these numbers (assuming 2 months to go) is about 30 - 40%.

    I find it interesting that the arbs have not really adjusted the price of esoff closer to fcuuf.

    In the Canadian market the price of amw.v was 7.25 and fcu.v 1.33 or about 5% too. And remember this is with interest rates being as low as they are.
    Sep 26 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Monster In The Making [View instapost]
    Joe Mazumdar of Canaccord Genuity on 9/23/2013 says that as the project is further derisked that valuation could rise to $10-11 lb U308 implying a value of CA$1.90-2.10.

    And these values are in a very cold U overall market. I hate to sound like a tout, but every week the value of PLS gets better and better. The recent drilling results are first rate.
    Sep 25 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dex Media - Chapter 11 Brings Large Upside [View article]
    I think you folks are being too harsh on DXM. They are only 3 months into a merger. It takes time for a sales based company to sort itself out after a merger. Anybody that has been through a merger will tell you that it takes time.
    Aug 8 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 Drilling Shows Patterson Lake Makes The Grade: Literally [View article]
    (note all prices in US)
    Maybe the uranium stocks are starting to move ahead. CCJ has been very impressive in its recent move from 17.50 to 21.54. Now DNN looks like its is starting to peak its head out from the ground -- now at 1.26.

    Some folks think that the U story is a second half 2013 play. With a possible restart of some Japanese reactors, and the ending of the Russian program.

    If so, projects such as Patterson Lake might catch a bid and rise to a more "reasonable" level.
    May 20 11:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
    Goodbye Fission Energy, hello Fission Uranium -- the deal with DNN has finally closed and is no more after close of business 4/29 but fission uranium will begin trading on the TSX-V under the FCU on May 1.

    (note all prices are US$): I mentioned that amw was a better buy at 3.50 than at 2.00 -- why? When amw was at 2.00 it was a pure speculation. It had some interesting drilling results and it was located in an excellent area. But the winter drilling could go either way. But now with all the excellent drilling results the question is not if there is U there but the question is how much and with the low amount of overburden to boot. I think the speculation of this stock is currently being taken off the table, especially at 3.25. Now I would feel differently if the stock was at 7+, but it is not.

    You pay for information in the stock market. At 2.00 there was very little info and a lot of hope. At 3.25 there is a lot of information and the hope part of the equation is starting to be taken off the table.
    Apr 27 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
    From the latest market commentary: the following companies have taken an interest in land near PLS -- Skyharbour Resources, Aldrin Resources, Tad Mineral Exploration, and Zadar Ventures. These are only the recent companies taking an interest. I think among the smaller guys PLS is on the U community radar screen in a big way. PLS area is seeing a "land grab".

    For the majors, with U around 40+ I think they are probably taking a wait and see approach.

    Just way off the cuff, how about one of the partners like FSSIF buying out the other partner. Or a major buying out one partner and not the other. Just a thought.
    Apr 23 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Bakken Well Costs Are Decreasing Faster Than Companies Indicate [View article]
    You have to ask yourself what price of oil is KOG pricing in at 7.50+
    Apr 18 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
    (All prices are in US$) Go figure, amw is now below 3 bucks. It is sort of like all that successful drilling never took place. Or how about fssif around .85 to .87 cents -- and the deal with dnn closes in about a week. But none of this is really surprising. DNN is at 1.17 and CCJ is 17.52. Both are getting near to last year lows. I guess China only growing at 7% means cancellation
    of all those nuclear power projects.

    Taking my tongue out of my cheek, I thing U market will lag until Japan starts up a couple of reactors. IMHO that will be the bell that starts U on the upward path. Then people will start doing the math on Russian stopping production of U, mines being closed or delayed because of price, etc...
    Apr 17 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
    You might reread my post. I didn't say sell amw, I said the end of the winter drilling season might give some people reason to take some profits off the table. These people might view this as a lull in the action. There is really no other logical explantion for the recent price action.

    This stock is a better buy at 3.75 today than at 2.00 when all the drilling info started to be released. Why? Because all the data released illustrates that this is pointing to a major find.
    Apr 12 10:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Patterson Lake: Is The Past The Key To The Present? [View article]
    My 2 cents on AMW.V recent price action: since winter drilling is now over, most of the news (at least for a few months is out), and this weeks secondary. Plus, AMW.V has come a long way from last falls lows. If would only be natural for some early investors to take some profits off the table.
    Apr 11 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patterson Lake Project Valuation: Using History As A Guide [View article]
    Speculating on Patterson Lake: if one wants to speculate on this property, now is the time. U has been in a two year bear market. Most U mines are not profitable at current U prices. Future projects are being cancelled, and this year is the last for the Russian program. So the natural froth one would see in such a find as Patterson Lake is really missing because of U selling on the spot market in the low 40's. IMHO if the U market was in an uptrend, AMW.V would be selling in the 5 to 6 range inside of 3.70 canadian.

    This is still a speculation, but with every drill hole, and every new piece of information, the risk level declines, even if Mr Market seems not to be watching.

    Just my two cents -- and is worth just that two cents.
    Mar 15 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment