driftwood2

The Last Domino Is Falling: Exports

Unfortunately, this is not the last domino to fall. There will be others.

America: Is This the End of an Era?

What pollyannic nonsense. Let me get this straight: we have to stop gorging on the of plenty by gorging more from the horn of plenty?

The way we'll get out of this is by actually getting our economy productive again instead of relying upon foreign capital as we have for so long to provide an illusion of prosperity.

What to Buy and Why: Barron's 2009 Roundtable, Part II

Abby's picks are laughable as usually. It's especially funny that she pick BAC which of course veritably imploded last week. AMAT's PE is 14.5 which is not cheap at all in this environment. Everyone knows that semis are cyclical and AMAT even more so.

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

This is bunk since reports are that the program has already met it's target in a few days rather than a few months.

No Japanese-Style 'Lost Decade' Seen for U.S. Economy

It's a ridiculous to pin Japan's epic economic failure during the last ~18 years on a lack of R&D. First of all, even if Japan did reduce R&D, it was only temporary. Everyone knows about the large amount of research and advances out of japan in the last 18 years. Also, since tech lifecycles are so short, any effect of a cut in R&D should only be temporary so long as cuts were eventually restored. No, Japan's problems are NOT due to a lack of investment. They are entirely due to horrible economic policy that has allowed a horde of zombie banks to still be standing and thus produce a constant deflationary downwind on the economy. Unfortunately, we are following the Japanese model.

In Mark-to-Market War Pragmatism Will Trump Principles

Merely having the consumers go back to the malls won't solve our problems anymore than having the consumers going back to the malls after the dotcom bubble did. The ultimate problem is debt. Going back to the malls will stabilize things but it will still not solve the underlying problem. If anything, it may reduce the amount of political will to do so.

Who Owns the Fed?

Very significant information. Everyone needs to know this.

Housing: Where Is the Bottom?

The problem is, the enemy is us. It's not just our government that is bad. Our government is just a reflection of ourselves.

Why Aren't Stocks Falling?

Historically, the stock market has been a leading indicator. I agree with the OP and have myself noticed that the market has ceased being a leading indicator for a few years now.

I expect new market lows this year. This really is the "Great Depression 2" we're in.

Banks: The Final Countdown?

Something is definitely up. I'm surprised the markets have reacted to it as little as it has. It sure looks like the banks are trying to get ahead of options expiration? But for what reason? Or are they trying to get ahead of the inauguration?

From Crunch to Catatonia

The government has been far too soft with banks and given away money for too little in exchange. They should have demanded much bigger stakes in the failed banks that needed a handout to stay afloat. And the stakes should have had full voting rights. With enough shareholder clout, the government can simply mandate the banks to lend.

Will Regulation Hobble Capitalism?

Having been in various industries I can tell you that regulations have a very significant cost. However, regulation in the financial industry is entirely warranted in my opinion because history has shown the tremendous cost of not doing so. Also, it really seems to me that 80% of the "innovation" in the financial industry is actually new ways to swindle people or print money rather than anything that actually produces anything of real value. Preventing most of the "innovation" in the financial industry will only increase GDP.

How PHEVs and EVs Will Sabotage America's Drive for Energy Independence

Not making 1 volt will not allow 10 priuses to be built. Lithium ion batteries are NOT a scarce resource. OIL is a scarce resource. Lithium mines are few as of now but lithium is the third most abundant element in the universe. It's also much more abundant in the crust of the earth than oil is and can be recycled unlike oil. (~20ppm vs 100ppt)

Is Investing Legend David Winters Betting on Another Crash?

I think there are real dangers that will be forthcoming from eastern europe and from the domestic real estate situation. Option arms and alt-a will be a continuing drag on banks. Credit expansion has been a critical driving force behind most economic recoveries but it is very weak this cycle because our problems originated in the credit sector to begin with. Another crash or a long grind down is very possible.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

The situation seems to have stabilized as far as the economy goes. Current stock prices have been slow in recognizing the bad shape future earnings are going to be. It seems like we're heading for a Japan style malaise. However, Japan's decline was not instantaneous. There is indeed a lot of money sitting on the sidelines and we would be fools not to realize that rallies are bound to happen. Longer term, I don't see us effectively reducing debt except through defaulting so I don't see a sustained recovery for a long time.