driftwood2

Who Owns the Fed?

Very significant information. Everyone needs to know this.

What to Buy and Why: Barron's 2009 Roundtable, Part II

Abby's picks are laughable as usually. It's especially funny that she pick BAC which of course veritably imploded last week. AMAT's PE is 14.5 which is not cheap at all in this environment. Everyone knows that semis are cyclical and AMAT even more so.

Banks: The Final Countdown?

Something is definitely up. I'm surprised the markets have reacted to it as little as it has. It sure looks like the banks are trying to get ahead of options expiration? But for what reason? Or are they trying to get ahead of the inauguration?

Home Prices May Be Nearing Bottom, Bank Equities to Follow?

Housing prices are still above historical norms relative to income. They are also still high relative to rent. We still have a ways to go for housing prices to find a bottom. However, I think prices in the inner cities and outer developments may have already hit bottom. The inner cities is where the worst of subprime is and it was the first to go. The outer developments are the least in demand and the most speculative so it was the next to go. The burbs are still only minimally affected. I expect that they will experience a slow but unrelenting decline over the next 2 years as alt-a and option arms reset. Commercial real estate will probably crack this year.

Earnings Preview: J.P. Morgan

Why would JPM move up their announcement date? Does it bode good or ill? It's a mystery to me.

S&P 500 Financial Sector Market Cap Continues to Sink

The size of these losses, especially for companies like C, BAC, MS, GC, and etc is a rough indicator of how much money will ultimately be needed to bail them out. Some optimistic individuals are of the opinion that the bailout funds already provided by the government will be enough to fix our financial system. If that were the case, why would Citi, who received a mere $45B from the government, have lost $246B in market cap? If Citi had only lost on the order by $45B, wouldn't their market cap have fallen a similar amount? The truth is, Citi alone will probably require hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars to be made solvent. Tarp is only the beginning.