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Abegaz

Abegaz
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  • Surprise, Surprise: No Taper From The Fed [View article]
    Well sure IT. I am not really a gold bear (hater) as you suspected. What I hate is losing money by being on the wrong side of a trade! More than happy to get long when the time is right. I happen to think we bottomed at 1190 gold (I was looking for something a little deeper but it never arrived) and now we are heading into a rising period again. But don't break out the balloons and whisky just yet. We are not likely going to see too speedy a climb and I bet that will leave the religious buyers a little disappointed.
    Sep 21 06:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Party On Ben: Gold, Silver, Copper Should Rise Into 2014, 25% Upside In Freeport-McMoRan [View article]
    Sadly, that inflation is essential and it is an ingredient in the broad solution that will bring positive long term results with regards to debt. No point fighting it. Nor should you expect gold to reflect the bottom line truth.
    Sep 21 06:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    Of course I disagree! Zoltan, this is a poor country on an incredible growth trajectory. You cannot come to a simplistic Western-centric viewpoint without making a better effort at understanding what is happening here. Population growth is high and Ethiopia is amongst the most populous of African countries. There are not just urgent reasons to improve productivity of the land to support the population but more to the point, it is because Ethiopia is primarliy an agricultural country. It's primary revenues derive from a variety of crops such as flowers to Europe, beeswax, honey, animal skins, fruits and vegetables. Industrialization is in progress although it is slower than most would like to see. Your pat answers on every point I have made show immaturity and lack of understanding in my opinion. I hope you will make a better effort with your next article.
    Sep 20 04:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    Zoltan, you missed the part that I live in Ethiopia now and am seeing first hand a land rush that is off the charts. You just cannot overlook what is happening in these economies especially as growth rates are so high and land prices so low compared to the West. I will append an article below which I encourage you to read. Lease rates (after the 2012 increase) came in as low as a dollar per hectare. You read that right. A measly dollar per hectare for excellent ag lands with great rainfall. So far only about an eighth of all the land on offer has been taken up. That is why there is a land rush here.

    Ethiopia to charge more on commercial farm leases ~~ Reuters
    http://reut.rs/15IFrfI
    Sep 20 03:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    Good idea Jaime. Those poor folks just need more money. Birth rates decline as income rises. It is a simple solution. Either that or give them inflation so high that the idea of having babies scares the hell right out of them.
    Sep 20 02:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    And they are not damn fools either. Since I ranched and farmed up North about as far as you can go in Saskatchewan let me be the first to tell you that the soil is about thin as paper. Even the gophers can't build a den without digging up a heap of gravel on your field.
    Sep 20 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    Farming is great on paper. Just sit down and run the numbers on a startup operation though and you will be dreaming of the office again in no time flat. Any idea what you will pay to buy quota, Zoltan? Better check that before quitting your day job.
    Sep 20 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    Don't bank on it unless you already own the land or are prepared to specialize in a niche market, balazs1. Farm land is in a near bubble in many places in North America right now. Land is exhorbitant which is another way of saying you cannot buy it and farm it economically. You will lose your shirt right now. Guaranteed. We await a land crash in ag for fresh opportunity to arise.
    Sep 20 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    Agree 35372
    Sep 20 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    Wrong again Zoltan. You are really stuck on this "no land" thing. I am from Saskatchewan and can tell you factually there is ample available land sitting fallow because so many of the guys have packed in farming and the recent buyers are just holding for investment value. The whole mood has changed in the past decade or so. Nobody wants to farm and when the big outfits or investment groups come in they don't make efficient use of what they have available. Let me tell you one thing, it used to be a lot more active up there but the squeeze is on and the smaller guys are getting pushed out so land does not even get planted a lot of the time. It is a pain trying to market your crops when you are one of the last in town and your acreage is a modest section or so.
    Sep 20 02:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    You need to do a little more fact checking Zoltan because you are wrong on that point. There are vast tracts of good land being opened for agriculture that have never seen a modern plow. I live in Ethopia. In this one country alone almost 4 million hectares have been designated to lease to investors. The land is often excellent with good annual rainfal levels and is located in thinly populated parts of the country. Just in the last few years hundreds of thousands of new hectares have been seeded/planted for sugar cane, cotton and rice. Most of the new investment currently comes from Saudi Arabia, India and China. But it is not just Ethiopia where the opportunity for farming has taken off. Dig into it a little more. There is a land rush on in Africa right now that is quite unprecedented in modern times and the prices are almost literally pennies per hectare to lease.
    Sep 20 02:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Food Production Not Keeping Up, Will Lead To Next Great Economic Crisis [View article]
    I have looked at this issue on and off for years Zoltan. The conclusions I have arrived at are not that there is insufficient food but rather there are shortages developing in quality that is demanded from a US/Euro perspective.

    Waste is epidemic in the food business.

    Inefficiencies in transportation, storage and end use are also problematic. Secondly, growing meat consumption is another of the reasons for lower stores of grain in the bins as these are diverted to production of chicken, fish, beef and pork. A third is the use of foods for biofuels.

    Obviously the basic formula of grain stores versus population do not add up when we consider how we use what we produce and what we use it for. Much can be done by introducing more locally sourced production, shipping products fewer kilometers to the buyers, making better use of slightly damaged and imperfect fruits and vegetables and ensuring production is not adversely affected by rain, pests and environmental contaminants.

    Here in Africa there is a transformation underway that will add many millions of hectares of quality farm lands to the available productive capacity when it is complete. Food is going to get cheaper and more plentiful for many in the poorer countries as modern industrial methods are integrated in place of the rudimentary systems now in use.

    We might easily free up more of our existing food supply just by modifying the regulatory burden that producers live under. In Europe, the list of conditions and red tape that must be met to make food salable to the public are so stringent it has driven many producers right out of the business.

    In short, I think that food shortages are more myth than reality. Our Western centric view of what can or cannot be eaten is behind much of the reduction in volumes available for distribution.
    Sep 20 01:59 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise, Surprise: No Taper From The Fed [View article]
    I am in agreement Steve. I had anticipated more downside but it is no longer in the cards. Gold and Silver are on a buy in my books now and will be for a long period of time. I do not anticipate extreme upward movement though but rather fairly steady price appreciation on average (beware the periodic dives that are meant of scare you out of the pool along the way).

    Nice article by the way. Very enjoyable.
    Sep 19 05:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise, Surprise: No Taper From The Fed [View article]
    And the "ejection" button too. Can't live without that.
    Sep 19 05:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise, Surprise: No Taper From The Fed [View article]
    The fear of all wives, Mark. You go out and buy farmland and next thing she is canning tomatoes and stocking the basement while tending sheep. It is a wonder any of us stay married!
    Sep 19 05:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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