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Jonny Edwards

Jonny Edwards
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  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    OK. Thanks.
    Jun 24 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    Short interest has been steadily increasing since April...thoughts as to why? http://bit.ly/T2cbN9
    Jun 22 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Infusystem's New Public Comp And Big Competitive Bidding Win [View article]
    One-time pump sale contributed heavily to that revenue growth right?

    Plus, any thoughts as to why the revenue growth didn't translate as cleanly to EPS?
    May 6 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Things “Just Aren't Done”.  [View instapost]
    "I didn't know I was a slave until I found out I couldn't do the things I wanted." - Frederick Douglass

    Others didn't realize he was a "slave" as well, at least in the way we see slavery in the universe of morality today.

    Morality is a tricky thing. Like the division between land and water, there's what will be permanently underwater and permanently dry.

    But there's also the beach in between, where the Ocean of the Immoral gains and loses ground on a regular cycle. One day, parts of the beach will be permanently underwater - and the associated "investment ideas" will also be lost forever, since ingrained moral revulsion will make us shudder the second we even think about getting our feet wet.

    The question is - which parts of the beach that we see today will go underwater forever?

    Slavery, child porn, Nazi-run industries all went that way a while back. Businesses engaged in South African apartheid policies are probably the most recent example - it seems like several folks on this platform would have invested.

    Oil? Guns? Russians?
    May 4 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Things “Just Aren't Done”.  [View instapost]
    So if slavery or child porn were legal, would you invest?
    May 3 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 146: The Magic Number On Lending Club [View article]
    Lending Club is pretty well regulated: 1. LC loans function as consumer loans. 2. Yes, but the same is true for any unsecured loan if you want to doom your credit score and not get money ever again. He can't do it more easily than a bank because LC also does due diligence.. 3-5. Credit score is lowered on default. Collection agencies will go after borrowers.
    Jan 22 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 146: The Magic Number On Lending Club [View article]
    Lending Robot looks interesting. How do you intend to compete with PRIME though?
    Jan 22 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 146: The Magic Number On Lending Club [View article]
    The cause of the 2008-2009 recession: "We will consider the returns between two loans to be independent of each other, which is reasonable since a) default from a man in Nevada who borrowed money to fix his car is unlikely to affect the probability of default from a woman in Florida who wanted to pay back her credit card, b) historical data (for instance from S&P Experian Consumer Credit Default indices) shows a close-to-zero beta, which means defaults on consumer credit defaults are not correlated with market conditions."

    Would love to see some regressions including a time variable here, as well as how the shape of the distribution might change depending on different variables.

    Otherwise, good work.
    Jan 22 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Musings On Income Distribution - Part 4  [View instapost]
    One counterparty opportunity is the use of Seeking Alpha as a sell-side tool for penny stocks.
    Jan 12 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    If you report abuse, they'll delete the posts.
    Dec 27 03:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maybe It Is A Manipulated Stock, So What? I'm Overweight Apple For 2014. [View article]
    Interesting article, but terrible use of statistics.

    "A paired statistical test comparing Monday and Friday closes shows that mean 80 bps difference between Monday and Friday price changes is highly significant at an incredible P value of 0.0005, which means this distribution would occur by chance only 5 times in 10,000."

    This testing doesn't allow any conclusions about probability of occurrence, i.e. "occur by chance only 5 times in 10,000". Only the vague, arbitrary statement that the null hypothesis (that Friday and Monday are the same) can be rejected at the 0.0005 level. What does that mean? No one really knows.

    If you want to get real probabilities, try Bayesian analysis.
    Dec 10 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InfuSystem: MBO Off, But Value Remains [View article]
    Very helpful.

    My latter question was with respect to the impact of price cuts - what you said about how recompete works makes a lot of sense, so thanks a lot. However, if infusion providers bidding lower prices only impact the price (without guaranteeing larger market share), what's preventing all the infusion providers from simply colluding and maintaining the higher market price?

    Re: infusion provision. I get what you say about how the infusion inclusion (say that 10x fast) in Round 1 is a test run. But unless there are terribly adverse impacts in the 9 MSAs, I think there's a very high chance that Round 2 include infusion as well. Generally how government uses test runs. As to the question how much, the link above shows at least a 10% increase in Medicare savings for each of the categories from Round 1 bid in 2010 to Round 2 in 2013 - so the 21% cut for 9 MSAs could leap to 40% cut for 71 MSAs (71 MSAs vs. 9 MSAs), which would be of huge impact on INFU's revenues.
    Dec 4 09:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InfuSystem: MBO Off, But Value Remains [View article]
    I'm quite sure that bidding on infusion will be included in the Round 2 recompete in 2016, as well as the Round 1 recompete again, which makes the cash flow beyond 2016 look shaky.

    For those confused about the timeline exactly, take a look at: http://bit.ly/1g7M9Sj.

    It's the purpose of DMEPOS to lower costs via bidding. It seems to me that if infusion stays in business AND is successful in lowering costs (see the 21% cut), then we're very likely to see Round 2 recompete include infusion in 2016. The timeline shows that clearly.

    Additionally, the 21% number is something that's been publicly released - it's the result from the bidding in Round 1. So in response to Greg, that 21% estimate is true across MSAs in Round 1, not just an estimate from INFU itself.

    Greg: If INFU did lose more than 21% given your back-of-the-envelope calculation, is it possible to have multiple winning bids for an MSA so another infusion provider balances out the higher loss from INFU? Or the paragraph you pointed out does in fact reflect a 21% cut, but in a way that isn't clear as of yet.
    Dec 4 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InfuSystem: MBO Off, But Value Remains [View article]
    I wonder how you'd be able to calculate the rebid impacts on the other MSAs considering the rebids haven't happened yet. Or more specifically, I wonder how they can calculate the impacts considering they haven't happened yet.

    Re: management transparency. To be fair, I remember that information re: $250,000 flying all over press releases on Yahoo Finance and Google Finance about a month and a half ago. So I'm not sure if it was "purposely" buried.
    Dec 2 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lucas Energy Continues To Deteriorate [View article]
    Thanks for clarification. Oversight on my part.
    Nov 21 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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