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Gene Jaquet

Gene Jaquet
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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    A64 - so what's your point? That he's from inferior stock? That's what you're really saying. Because you can't string two words of coherent argument together to make intelligent criticism? If I was to guess your own stock from the basis of that post, I'd be down in the invertebrate category. Somewhere between slugs and snails.

    I'm not a big fan of Obama but I find your focus on his ancestry to be at best completely irrelevant and at worst, racist. Grow up and debate the issues.
    Jul 24, 2015. 05:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    @bsinn "Start normalizing the interest rates and the top part of the income inequality formula with flatten"

    Agreed. And not just because hedge funds will have to de-leverage. Also because middle class retirees will earn more on their savings.
    Jul 24, 2015. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    Harddrive, did you know you could make gold from lead?
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    Good comment, Tricky. We are still a long way from a feudal system, where the only conceivable route to wealth was birth, but anything that systematically moves us in that direction ought to be identified, debated, and rectified if practical. I'm a capitalist to the bone, but not blind enough to see that there are structural aspects in our system that disfavor opportunity.
    Jul 24, 2015. 01:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    Breaking news : "Executive Chairman Richard Kinder disclosed the purchase of 100K shares at $34.97 worth ~$3.5M, and director Sarofim Fayez disclosed the purchase of 500K shares at $35.04-$35.51, worth ~$17.6M."
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    The PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative is funded in large part by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. To see hard-core capitalists ploughing tens of billions of dollars of their own money into successful health initiatives, where governments had been struggling to get results, is one of the most uplifting things I have seen in a very long time.
    Jul 24, 2015. 09:37 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    KMI broke $35 yesterday. Ouch.
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    James, you and I both predicted that no deal would be reached in the Greek bail-out talks, and we were both wrong. Meanwhile, not only was gold drifting downwards, but so were interest rates on euro sovereign bonds. We should have listened more carefully to market.
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Anthem To Buy Cigna For $54.2B [View article]
    There was considerable debate here yesterday about hiking the minimum wage. I argued that the jury was still out, that studies gave conflicting results, and by coincidence today's edition of the Economist addressed this very issue http://goo.gl/9zqimV . Excerpts :

    "Modest minimum wages do not seem to sap demand for labour. Truckloads of studies, from both America and Europe, show that at low levels—below 50% of median full-time income, with a lower rate for young people—minimum wages do not destroy many jobs. [But] by moving towards sharply higher minimum wages, policymakers are accelerating into a fog. It is reckless to assume that because low minimum wages have seemed harmless, much larger ones must be, too."

    According to the paper, the proposed new federal minimum ($15 from $7.25/hr) would represent 77% of median hourly income in the US, and that would clearly be dangerous. The studies I have looked at conclude the same: it's a policy-drug to be taken with moderation. High doses could have nasty side effects.

    Final thought: this debate is only taking place because of the widening inequality of income in the US. If the system were not perceived as "unfair" there would be far less support for hiking wages. And as for perceptions, you can't beat this: the same newspaper reported, a few weeks ago, that the top 25 hedge fund managers earned more than all kindergarten teachers combined, in a country of 320 million people. Hmmm…
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:01 AM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Crisis Winds Down - Parliament Passes Reforms [View article]
    And in case you took the time to do some research, which I have because it's a subject I find fascinating, you might come across the following :

    From The Guardian: A famous 1990 study, by David Card and Alan Krueger, compared fast food employment in New Jersey and Pennsylvania after one state increased its minimum wage and the other didn't. They didn't find a significant effect on employment.

    Another landmark paper (UCLA Berkeley) looked at US restaurant employment in 288 different pairs of adjacent counties that had different minimum wages. They found that minimum wages are effective in boosting pay, but they don’t harm employment.

    From the Center for Economic Policy Research : The employment effect of the minimum wage is one of the most studied topics in all of economics.
    This report examines the most recent wave of this research – roughly since 2000 – to determine the best current estimates of the impact of increases in the minimum wage on the employment prospects of low-wage workers. The weight of that evidence points to little or no employment response to modest increases in the minimum wage.

    You will also come across other studies that DO find a link. My point was simply that if you put political bias aside, you'll conclude that the jury is still out. So rather than telling me not to open my mouth, do the work yourself.

    PS concerning the garbage you wrote about nominal vs. inflation adjusted GDP: if you did look at nominal GDP, it has actually INCREASED during the 2001, 1990 and 1981 recessions. So your rule of thumb looks even more ridiculous.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Crisis Winds Down - Parliament Passes Reforms [View article]
    @GGL @FellowTraveller

    "There is a rule of thumb for recessions and that is that the unemployment rate goes up about half as much as the contraction in GDP." Well since you don't want to talk about GDP growth rates, just absolute GDP numbers, let's do that. Here's the figures for the four last recessions :

    Year / GDP $b / Unemp rate / change GDP / Change Unemp.

    2008 Q3 14889 5,4
    2009 Q2 14355 9,4 -4% 4.0

    2001 Q2 12710 4,2
    2001 Q4 12705 5,5 0% 1.3

    1990 Q3 8983 5,9
    1991 Q2 8865 6,7 -1% 0.8

    1981 Q3 6662 7,6
    1982 Q4 6493 10,8 -3% 3.2

    The figures come from the St Louis Fed, inflation adjusted, with seasonal adjusments.

    Please, tell me again about the rule of thumb. LOL. In every recent recession the unemployment rate has risen by more than half the fall in (absolute) GDP. Numbers don't lie.

    Your argument falls flat on its face. And please spare me the "you clearly don't know what you are talking about" BS.
    Jul 23, 2015. 01:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Crisis Winds Down - Parliament Passes Reforms [View article]
    "A rather volatile portfolio I'd gather" Quite the contrary!

    Beta from YahooFin ILMN=0.42, ULTA=0.19, Q=0.57, VOYA=1.74
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Crisis Winds Down - Parliament Passes Reforms [View article]
    "With plunging sales and disappointing results, is McDonald's a buy?"

    The stock got a pop when new management was appointed earlier this year, but otherwise it's been going nowhere for a long time. Two things need to happen before I add it back to my core portfolio :

    Same store sales in US must improve, and MCD must begin clawing back market share. Still can't see how they can do that.

    The dollar has to stabilize, or better start dropping, because they do well in foreign markets but that makes little impact to the bottom line so long as the buck drifts up.

    The thing about MCD, like many other mega-caps, is that price trends tend to be rather long and steady. That means you don't have to worry too much about calling the bottom (which is notoriously difficult). With small caps you can easily miss the boat, but with MCD you can afford to wait until a trend becomes apparent.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:53 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Crisis Winds Down - Parliament Passes Reforms [View article]
    CAT is a great company but revenues depend a lot on mining activity, currently in the doldrums. Wait for the bottom in commodity prices before jumping in.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:27 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Greek Crisis Winds Down - Parliament Passes Reforms [View article]
    Excellent. This board needs more wit, less testosterone.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:36 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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