User325602

7 ETFs to Short Right Now

Good luck with that... you are going to get torched shorting those 3x ETF's right now. I hope for their sakes that your clients are aware their hard earned money is about to go up in a cloud of smoke...

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Why drop your TBT now when it's just starting its run??


On May 04 09:46 AM Delojozafado wrote:

> I am a total lunatic with three partials in (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> and looking to add at $21.XX. I love the (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> and am hoping to unload some of it today while the trend is still
> up. I have sold out completely of two LT bond Funds in the last 2
> weeks for nice gains (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), &
> (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). I just unloaded a junk bond/bank
> debt fund as well (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) for a very
> slight loss as things are just too scary up at this level. I have
> raised over $100K in cash in the last 6 weeks for some great gains.
> I have fired my former slime ball predator Raymond James Broker.
> Too bad it is a great highly reputable firm but they let this POS
> work there and misrepresent and sell inappropriate crap! They will
> learn. If only I can get out from under some TBT so when it derops
> back below $45 again I can buy some (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
> Why are the AGQ,DGP., and PTM working so well? well there is the
> physical holder platinum ETF comming. Now we see these VIX ETFs just
> introduced. i agree with the authors "slow money" fast money leveraged
> professional trader scenario. By the time the late to the party,
> panicked that they were missing out on this raly individual, mutual
> fund, and pension fund investors figure it out there will be tha
> dearth of buyers. Remember those +5% one day down days last year?
> As Naufal has pointed out, what has changed. YUM & BWW profits
> are up and they are hiring at $11.50 an hour? These kinds of jobs
> can not even support the utilities, insurance and property taxes
> on a house! The (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) action is telling
> us that the sub 5% 30 year mortgage is about to be a brief footnote
> in history!

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Very interesting and well thought out article. Lots of good premises here. I do have a bit of a gripe, however, with the fact you are calling for an immediate and violent market correction to the downside. If your theories are correct, and manipulation is indeed the order of the day, what leads you to believe that it can't continue unchecked for the next.... oh..... 5 or 6 months? In the meantime, your account(s) would suffer such serious drawdowns as to have you tucking your tail between your legs and wondering what the hell ever got you involved in the markets in the first place. Patience everybody... when the markets are ready to correct, THEY will tell you that... Markets don't correct based on the assumptions that a few analysts or bloggers feel that a 10%-40% market correction is due in short order. I can't speak for anybody else, but as of today (5/2/09) there is nothing at all in any index that is screaming "pullback" to me. That could change at any time of course. Historically, July and/or October would be great times to look for the bigger market corrections. One short term trade is screaming out however, it's one that has been brought up in the comment stream more than once... Short the 20 yr treasury. I'll stay out of TBT and instead opt for his much less discussed little sister TLT utilizing June and July puts. Good investing all---

How Does $9000 Gold Sound?

$900/ oz, $2000/ oz, $9000/oz...??? The most straight forward, common sense reasoning to a "cap" on the price of gold came in an article from a SA contributer some months back... what he said made a ton of sense. He argued that there is an appropriate cap to the price of gold, and that cap corresponded to how much gold someone could go out and realistically pan for/mine in a weeks time. Apparently, a highly motivated, decently equiped individual can go out and literally accumulate (average) approximately 2-3 ounces of gold per week if they know what they are doing. But who the hell wants to do that? Not many people that I can think of at current gold prices. Its very hit or miss apparently... feast or famine if you will. But at $9000/ oz gold, heck, even $3000 per ounce gold, that changes everything. Suddenly you have a mass exodus of skilled and unskilled labor from the work force setting their sights on becoming gold prospectors! Who wants to bust their asses at a day job 40-50 hours per week for a measly 800 or 900 dollars, only to see Uncle Sam snatch up to 40% of that money, when you could go out and mine/pan gold for a kings ransom of $10,000 per ounce (low end) or possibly $30,000 / week at the authors suggested $9000/ ounce gold! Not only that, but you could keep every red cent of the fruits of your labor. See how this scenario of hugely inflated gold prices seems so unreasonable? I was in the $3000/ oz camp as well as many other gold bugs until I saw the numbers worked out and saw how absurd this type of gold valuation would be. Do you really think the US/ Europe/CHina/ or whoever would allow such out of whack valuations on gold prices and risk losing their valuable work forces?? Im just not seeing it. I know the gold market is supposedly a "free" market, but the people who control the supply of gold control its pricing as well to a large extent.

The Next Leg up in Financials

Laughable. So really, all it is going to take to solve Americas Financial dilemma is a few banksters getting together and saying "Hey I know what to do! Let's just refi everyone!" This IS the complete scope of your article, correct? Might be somewhat plausible if not for three scenarios that are currently in place;

1. What about the trillion + dollars of option ARM resets that are due in the next two years that havent even as of yet hit the banks' books as "toxic assets"? Oh, I know, we can just get E-Trade to refi those too... Borrowers that are currently barely able to make INTEREST payments at teaser rates let alone interest and principal at adjusted rates. Borrowers that are so far under-water it would take them 30 years to dig themselves out of the holes they now find themselves in just to break even. And those are the borrowers with "best of" circumstances... what about everyone that now finds themselves without jobs and now lives off of unemployment? Not a very pretty scenario...

2. Who exactly are the "bag holders" in your proposed scenario? Not one mention of that... Guess it doesnt matter right, as long as you get your run in banks and balance sheets are shored up for the next few quarters, huh? Seems to me you would have done quite nicley in Madoffs firm, or better yet a high ranking US policy maker, pushing your problems as far down the line as possible until you simply can't push any further. Uncle Sam would be proud.

3. You seem to imply under your rosy scenario that all banks have already discounted mortgages 40 cents on the dollar, and somehow have these tidy rainy day accounts all set to go that the other 60 cents are sitting in if somehow they need to take the actual losses on these clusters of bad loans. Nothing could be further from the truth! Don't you get that one of the major problems with bank balance sheets now is that they HAVE NOT discounted bad loans to proper levels!? In most cases, they have only written them down to between 90-98% of bubble levels. Of course, who is going to argue with that? They have been enabled by the Fantasy Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and limitless injections of taxpayer TARP funds, so there is really no telling how long many of these banks will be able to keep these shenanigans up. With Obama nominating Herb Allison to head the Treasury Tarp office, I imagine they have now set longer term goals of pulling the wool over the publics and investors' eyes..

You may end up getting the run up on banks you want in the short term Jason, but it wont be because of the refinancing scheme proposed in your artice. Furthermore, it wont last. Take those profits you plan on making and do something good with them. Maybe donate something to charity. Of course I'm sure that won't happen, because your shortsighted profit seeking that is so prevelent today in American society is what got us all into this mess in the first place

Silver Backwardation: Prices About to Soar

Nice artice... this is the type of content SA users are looking for. Thanks.

USO: Black Gold Waiting to Erupt

Hey Mark,

Arent you the same guy who was here a couple months back pumping an "all in" play on USO at around $32?? What happened to that position? In your disclosures you list no position taken.... Anyway, back to the point at hand... Suggesting long on USO again? Really? From what Ive read here, even the oil bulls are extremely hesitant on an Oil ETF like USO...
Two things to me are absolutely laughable. One is that you site as one of your reasons in taking up a long position in USO the fact that
" Shares are now 7% off their all time Lows of $22.74"
You're kidding, right? First off, the funds inception was mid 2006. I wouldent get overly concerned about "historic" pricing here trying to value this ETF. This is the real kicker... you could have said the EXACT SAME THING nearly EVERY DAY since the middle of Nov last year when the ETF breached $43! Every day from then to its Feb 18 low where there was an intra-day rebound or next day rebound of 7% would lead to the exact same horse crap logic for jumping onboard!
Also, someone faults technicals as an illogical way to enter/exit this ETF due to the fact there is extreme contango in the oil markets... well, perhaps. But conango or not, I still see unraveling technicals with no end in site to the downside. You may want to become a millionare going long in USO, but the only place you are going to send investors by pumping USO is straight to the poorhouse.
The only logical course of action here is to the short side. Same as it was at $32.

What the Rising VIX Means to Stocks

Ummmm..... VIX is on the rise? Really? Looks like it's decending from its peak to me.....

Rating the Top 12 U.S. Banks - From Hidden Gems to Zombies

AB?! The NYSE is completely falling apart, and AB appears to be one of the best short term shorts in that index. If you like it, wait until the price halves to jump on board. It was down another 8% for you today---


On Feb 19 08:02 AM ozcutty wrote:

> i can't make sense of banks right now so don't feel confident with
> any of them. There are plenty of other quality companies to choose
> from, why even bother? for instance i just doubled my holding of
> AB, plenty of upside without all the uncertainly of huge debts.

I Think Trinity Industries Will Soar Once Again

Hey Dan-

Three different scenarios at play here;

1. What you THINK will happen

2. What you WANT to happen

3. What is ACTUALLY happening...

Looks to me what you are betting on is options 1 & 2. Your theories may at some point end up proving to be correct. TRN could again become a $25 dollar stock. The important question here though is when? If you must absolutely buy, why not wait until it hits $5 then purchase, which is where the stock is headed right now... Couple things to consider: the NYSE is completely unraveling right now. These once fertile grounds are quickly becoming a graveyard for out of favor companies. Technicals are horrible right now, with no end in sight to the downside. NOTHING in the NYSE is worth touching at the moment. Also, just because the possiblilty of a stimulus package exists, and there is also the chance that stimulus package will contain some provisions for infrastructure, which may or may not end up directly benefitting TRN, what exactly leads you to believe that these benefits will be passed on to shareholders?
TRN management has done an absolutely horrible job the last 20 years in creating shareholder value through the biggest bull market in history! Please. Why would the next 20 years be any different? Just my two cents, but you gotta come up with something more concrete than "these are the lowest levels seen since 2003...

15 Companies That Might Not Survive 2009

Wow! A bunch of dead companies that ranged from $20-$50 at the top of the market that are now for all intents and purposes dime pink sheet stocks that ..... get ready! "MIGHT" not last till the end of 2009! Are you kidding or what? What is the purpose of this article?? More gloom and doom?! I don't understand your point.... Anyway, this article "MIGHT" have been relevant in 2005....

10 Standout Growth and Value Stocks

Nice article and well thought out responses! The best of the bunch going forward:: CHK PDE NOV
The worst..... MRO

happy investing---

Thinking the Impossible: Could Bank of America Go to Zero?

If you want to know the true state of affairs over at JPM, check out the Boombustblog... Reggie Middleton and his team have done the research if you are interested. All you can digest over there about JPM and the rest of the garbage banks littering Wall Street. According to his research, JPM is completely insolvent and common shareholders are already screwed. They just don't know it yet. Anyway, check out his stuff, and if so inclined, I'm sure he'd be interested in a little point-counterpoint to anyone who would like to dicuss the "merits" of JPM going forward. Enjoy.



boombustblog.com/Reggi...


On Jan 29 11:30 PM Adam Sharp wrote:

> "JPM has 75 Trillion in hidden off=book near worthless derivatives.
> They are broke."
>
> Can someone point me to a source for this, if there is one? I've
> been searching for details about off-book stuff, and more details
> about their Tier 1 Capital situation (details, not PR fluff). I haven't
> dived into the SEC filings yet, was hoping someone had already done
> the homework...

Manufacturing Collapse Reminiscent of Great Depression's Beginning

Gloom and doom.... such a shame... anyone ever heard the saying
"Usually a person has more faith in their fear than faith in their future" ?
Negativity breeds more and markets are definately driven by fear...
The Chinese need to keep buying American dollars and holding them. Their exports to the US are way down. The eventual deflation of the credit bubble will be a good thing, not a bad thing. It portends a prosperous future built on real GDP growth, not unsustainable nonsensical growth due to unlimited cyber paper.
Manufacturing?? Does the US really need to be the hub of manufacturing that it once was? Times change and economies advance... We don't need to do the manufacturing, we just need to have a degree of control of the means by which manufacturing is sustained around the world. Capital and equity! At the end of the day, who makes out better? The guy down in the pit running the manufacturing process, or the guys with the controlling shares of the company equity? Think about it. Happy and healthy 2009 to everyone...

First Call of a Double-Dip Recession: Setting Up a Market Bottom?

Not exactly.......... 2009-2011 are going to be the years of the Option ARM resest. Millions of these types of adjustables on the books with teaser features such as minimum payments only for 5 years and 'negative amorization' loans in which the borrower ends up with a larger prinicipal balance at the end of the 5 years teaser. Not only that, but now P&I will become due where in many cases borrowers were only scraping together their 'interest only' payments. In theory your assesment makes sense, unfortunately, in practice most, if not all borrowers will end up with hugely increased monthly payments...


On Jan 03 10:58 AM moose60061 wrote:

> Does anyone realize the mortgages due to reset may now reset at a
> rate much lower?/ Seems everyone thinks the ARM's will adjust much
> higher, yet the rates these mortgages are linked to have gone down.
>