andrew c

A Simple Method for Market Timing

If you use the 20- and 50-week simple moving averages (20 crosses above the 50, buy, 20 cross below the 50, sell) for signals on the S&P, you essentially get the same returns as the S&P, BUT with less "beta" (risk).

I'd advise it for anybody nearing retirement... you don't want lots of risk at that point in life.

This method signaled a "sell" in mid-January 2008, and would've kept people out of the market through all the carnage of 2008 & 2009.

If you're 20 or 30 or even 40 years old, you're still probably better off with buy & hold... it performs marginally better, but over 20-50 years, that makes it worth the extra risk.

I don't know of any other "sure-fire" moving-average indicators.

If making money in the markets were easy, there wouldn't be a loser for every winner.

Is the S & P Expensive?

I guess that wasn't such a "nice spot for the investor class."

Seems that time has sorted out right from wrong.

Santelli's Rant: A Watershed Moment?

Thanks for your article about this. I've reposted it on facebook, with a link, along with my commentary:

Yesterday, a single voice expressed the anger of millions.

For some reason, finally, it caught the attention of the "mainstream media." I wonder if it'll catch the attention of policy makers. One can only hope.

It's sad that a single celebrity can do more than millions of citizens, but I guess that's our reality: back in 2008 when the Leave No Banker Behind Bailout (EESA) was passed, calls, faxes and letters to Congressional offices were 50-1 against it in most districts, as much as 300-1 against it in some.

Regardless that the message should've sunk in sooner with "those who matter," at least it's finally getting through to them. Thanks for that Rick.

How the U.S. Government Is Footing the Stimulus Bill

US interest rates are at 0 precisely because everybody wants the dollar, not the opposite -- you don't need to pay them to take our treasuries, in fact, at the moment, they're bidding them up with fervor.

Your answer to "why hasn't gold _already_ shot to $1500 given all the quantitative easing?" is "manipulation." If that's all you have... no other possibility and no evidence of your conclusion... you're missing something.

And as WB once joked, don't you think aliens would also be laughing at the way we fight over gold... dig it up, transport it, bury it, and surround it with guards?

Baltic Dry Index: The Best Economic Indicator You've Never Heard of

Ignoring where it was prior to Oct 30, 2008 is rather misleading, don't you think?

As for the "best economic indicator we've never heard of," anybody who reads market blogs has heard of it quite a bit since October.