polishlogician

Sirius' Future Looks More Promising Than Ever

Siri looked 'more promising' at $9 pps; why? Because of the hype, where's the hype gone? Some say it doesn't deserve 12 cents pps, pry not, but why not? Is there a cent of profit? I love the service (lifetime sub), and I think that if any firm can get TARP money (cars, steel, housing)--then give it to SIRI also, they will show a profit in time, they need a loan/refi at good terms now, and the FCC can be said to be part of the problem with their incredibly long and stupid merger process, so let the Feds make up for it. I just hope some of that GM money finds its way to the Siri coffers, where it can do some good.

Sirius' Future Looks More Promising Than Ever

I agree, though I'd also say that within the next 6 months, I could see it going to 36 cents, which is to say it wouldn't surprise me in the least, in fact, why bottom out at 12 or 8 or any low number, 36 is as good as anything else when you're looking just towards the future, and if they get the refinancing behind them, they have the R/S looming to pull out of the bag, they will also, going forward, pry state a lot of reductions in expenses with the merger and also tightening the belts, it could easily be a 300% gain, and that's just in the short term...and this an odd question, perhaps someone out there who's in the know could answer this, but how many satellites do they have total (on ground, in orbit), and how many do they really need, isn't there anyone willing to lease a few satellites, I had thought such might be another revenue stream.

On Jan 02 11:50 AM sl62 wrote:

> Sorry Brandon, while I agree with your basic premise, I can't agree
> with how you are getting there in every case.
>
> What I will agree with you on is shorts bet the farm on BK and thus
> the .12 (and as low as .111 as they took it (the .08 recorded .52wk
> low was a one trade spike). But the point is, they bet the farm on
> either "actual" BK or "the concept" of BK, and for which they will
> be rewarded once they decide to reconcile their positions (and some
> that have been already). Either way, it was a successful 1.65 to
> .11 takedown...so I guess bully for them.
>
> Now we sit here at the bottom, awaiting imminent reconciliation from
> both the company and SP. This company and stock price will ALWAYS
> be not what the company "IS" but what the company "CAN" or "WILL"
> be someday. Back in 2003, when the SP hit .38, it would have been
> (and probably was) called a broken penney stock (as how most detractors
> seem to love to refer to it) but then was no different than now in
> how the Street will respond if they believe once again in "the future."
> With stocks like this even a short-term future works for the Street
> because if nothing else, it gives traders and short-term investors
> a great vehicle in which to make some money. Back in 2003 it was
> Howard and then Mel coming aboard. Now, even in the face of the LT
> debt picture, as details begin coming out about partner contract
> re-negotiations, debt restructuring, possible new significant investor
> stakes via Preferred being taken in the company, positive Q releases,
> and who knows what else (of which the possibilities are enumerable),
> you will once again see what happens when the Street wants another
> (then more stable) piece of this company. Don't forget, the company
> has no debt due in 2010 and Howard's contract is not up until the
> END of 2010 (which is a full two years out still--so whether he's
> going to retire or not, means little at this stage). Two years from
> now is way too far off to know what anything will look like. Everyone
> knows that "Buy and Hold" (for more than 1 or 2 years) in the general
> market has ended. Investors and traders alike are now focused on
> looking for plays that will give them a decent return within 6 months
> to 1 year or 18 months. As SIRI begins to "manage" (or maybe "disarm"
> is a better word) the current toxicity it carries, it will be looking
> pretty damn good over the next 12-18 months. It is for these reasons
> I believe that the company will begin to see an SP rally in '09 (without
> a reverse). If later this year, they decide to reverse, it will be
> more of a positive because they won't be doing it in dire straits
> (and probably would be a good move overall). They know that and aren't
> stupid, so don't look for any reverse prior to, I would say June.
> Reverses aren't always a bad thing. When done in desperation, they
> will attract flies because they stink. When done in times of upturn,
> they are looked at as positives and can foster better sentiment.
> But it should not be assumed that just because a company winds up
> with "less shares out" they cannot still be shorted back to from
> whence they came (and then worse because of the split factor).

>
>
> Will SIRI's LT problems disappear in the next 3-6 months? Hell no.
> They will still have some viability issues no matter what, looking
> out to 2014. But the market doesn't look at 2014 in 2009. It looks
> at 2009 and some of 2010. And given the moves the company can and
> will make (without a BK), the market I believe will applaud these
> moves and view them as a great short-term story. Frankly, that's
> all some of us into this company are focused on also. From here on
> out, given the company's now 10 year SP history in relation to where
> it is today, that's probably all any investors at any given time
> will be looking at from this company. Not many will be willing to
> throwing SIRI shares in a drawer for the next 10 years, or even 5
> years for that matter. Regardless, that would just not be sound for
> anyone (smart OR dumb) IMHO...