polishlogician

60 Minutes on Oil: Did Anyone Verify Anything?

I agree that supply and demand isn't the whole picture, but "expectations" caused a perception of this dire lack of supply? Has the Mid-East marketedly improved so much over the past...what...5 months? Otherwise, were there supply problems in Norway, England, Mexico, the Gulf, Alaska, or even Venezuela that I'm simply not aware of? To me, it seems excessive reliance upon the "perceived expectation of possible demand shortage" is outweighed by own ignorance, as I didn't understand it then, and I don't today, I guess they were just wrong with their perceptions? Gosh, I hope they didn't lose any money being so unbelievably wrong.


On Jan 12 08:51 AM huangjin wrote:

> Markets work on expectations, not the current supply and demand.
> People believed supply would not meet demand, and the price reflected
> their beliefs. This is why current supply and demand is not always
> the whole picture. Was oil at $147 ridiculous, and a bubble? Sure.
> But speculators cannot control reality, and they lost billions with
> their bets. And the reason oil fell so far is because the economy
> has imploded. Oil speculators lost because they pushed prices too
> far, and they failed to consider a massive drop in demand.
>
>

Iraq Production, Conservation Could Keep Oil Price in Check for Years

I think oil supply problems are exaggerated for speculative profit, I believe that Big Oil purposely capped Iraq at 1.5MM/bbl in line with OPEC quotas and on par with Iran's quotas, as well. We won't see increased production (6MM) nor any need for increased production, the price of crude may rise dramatically, but it won't be for lack of supply.

Where Will Oil End 2009?

...does anyone have an opinion on what Obama's strategy for petrodollars is going to be? That is, will he cozy up to Chavez and allow him to skirt the World Bank, as part of renewed Latin American relations; will he favor a range of oil to trade only in a band, say $50-60/bbl like Clinton to appease OPEC, Russia; or will he favor lower oil across the board if only in the short-term as a means towards stimulus (I wouldn't say long term as I personally think he'd have to help prop up the price by the end of the year)?

The Real Rationale Behind Current Supply and Demand for Oil and Other Commodities

well said, and let me reiterate your point:

"It's the end of December now and the annual Russian government stockpile palladium shipment has NOT showed up in Switzerland. Maybe the Russian palladium stockpile sale has finally ended for good. It's in Russia's strategic defense stockpile."

In fact, the cited link ("stockpile palladium shipment") is a .pdf and its 2nd paragraph reads: “Russia, the largest producer and holder of palladium stocks, did not ship large quantities of palladium to Switzerland in December 2005, as we had expected. Instead, shipments to the US hit a record monthly high in December and this, together with a large shipment to Switzerland in January, indicates an acceleration of Russian palladium shipments.”

I've never seen 3 things so misleading in just one sentence of a Contributor's article, namely: "It's the end of December now and the annual Russian government stockpile palladium shipment has NOT showed up in Switzerland":

(1) it's true that the Russians didn't send their stockpile in December but that was 2005; (2) they sent it in January 2006; and (3) and there was was/is no defensive stockpile hoarding, in fact they've sent it every year since.

For a more current and straightforward article concerning CURRENT Russian shipments and production, please see, "The Russian palladium stockpile - do we need to worry?":

www.mineweb.net/minewe...

"From 1999 - 2007 inclusive, the net movement of Russian palladium amounted to 11.4 million ounces or 354 tonnes. During this period there was one year, 2002, in which Russian metal was withdrawn from the market; over the other eight years, inventory movements averaged 1.5 million ounces per annum."

On Dec 26 09:21 PM montyman wrote:

> OMG!!! ALERT!!
>
> I checked out the article that M.A. claims shows a missed shipment
> of Palladium to Switzerland this December. The article is from 2005-06!!
> To add insult to injury, the article concludes by saying that the
> lowered shipment in December was made up for by a larger shipment
> in January (of 2006) !!
>
> What a liar! Seeking Alpha needs to ban this guy NOW!!!!!!!
>
> (From having read his previous articles, it's seems to me this Mark
> Anthony guy has some kind of "complex". I don't mean to hurl insults,
> but rather to warn other readers.)

The Real Rationale Behind Current Supply and Demand for Oil and Other Commodities

"It's the end of December now and the annual Russian government stockpile palladium shipment has NOT showed up in Switzerland. Maybe the Russian palladium stockpile sale has finally ended for good."

--the linked cited in the article, concerning the ANNUAL Russian palladium stockpile in Switzerland is 3 years old