rosey99

China Deficit Potential Makes Scary Headlines

This is interesting, and implies some limitations to the notion that Chinese GDP can grow faster than domestic Chinese consumption. On the other hand, given the currency regime in place (effective yuan/dollar peg) how much of this may be the result of higher import prices. I'd have to check, but it seems to me that the USD began to capitulate in earnest around the beginning of August.

This is interesting, but I remain skeptical given how much of the Chinese stimulus (AFAIK) has gone into infrastructure/industrial investment and of course asset speculation, especially real estate and stocks. Again, interesting and worth keeping an eye on, but I would look for more confirmation in the Chinese savings rate, and in inflation adjusted income changes. Another point of view, one I also find interesting is here:

mpettis.com/

There are a number of posts that discuss this issue, and how it's all tied together with massive "malinvestment," for lack of a better word.