relaplan1

Supply Side for Copper: A Game Changer in 2010?

I believe copper is principally niether a supply or demand play, but is principally a US Dollar play. And, it will continue to be such for the indefinite future.

Commodity Trading: Trench Warefare Between Inflationists and Deflationists

To me it looks like a deflated economy and a sinking US dollar is already with us.. Call it what you like.

Gold Rises, the Dollar Falls: Is This Really a Good Thing?

Much of the stock market ralley and resilience is a result of investors preference for assets over $US. That will continue because nations with strong economies will increase interest rates while our Fed can not defend $US without stopping the recovery? dead in its tracks.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick on Dollar as Reserve Currency - Bloomberg

There is no way the US economic recovery can be sustained if the $US strengthens.. Simply, there are just too many states and other government enitities on the verge of bankruptcy with no hope in sight.
Michigan leads the pack, but there are many states close behind.

Jamie Horvat Fears Extended Period of Stagflation

The economy of mid to late 1970's demonstrated economic stagnation, high unemployment and rampant inflation are simultaneously possible.

I agree, it could go a step further. That is, an economic depression and rampant inflation.


On Sep 14 10:53 AM conceptwizard wrote:

> Good article. I do not concurr however that a depression is not possible.
> Some crucial notes of high importance.
>
> China. The trade wars are starting with the US, China can squeeze
> us with dwindling treasury purchases. They are setting themselves
> up as a new Gold backed currency. Which would you rather have US
> worthless dollars or Gold backed Yuan. This has put a floor under
> Gold. They have also put forth their first auction, albeit small
> but the significance is large. The devaluing dollar is a huge part
> of the depression equation.
>
> I believe that this rally is funded by liquidity injections indirectly
> from the Fed. The market has no volume and not much coming from money
> markets, so where do the money come from? The Fed asset backed securities
> have gone up substantially, so its likely the fuel. When the QE is
> lifted, the mark to market rules reinstated by the FASB and the Stimulus
> money runs out, we'll see what were made of without the consumer
> picking up the slack.
>
> Chinas exports are down 47% and their is an Arial photograph of a
> fleet of ships from the London times of a armada of container ships
> larger than the US and British navies combined, harbored in Singapore
> with no crews. The BDI is decreasing gradually as well which confirms
> there are no green shoots to speak of.
>
> I liked the article, at a minimum we are looking at stagflation.

Real Estate Delinquency Rates Accelerate: Do We Need More Bailout Money?

43% of US households spend more than their income. Making loans to those people is what caused this mess. And, in doing so Banks did not maintain adequate reserves. Hopefully Banks learned. The best thing "little people" can do is get out of debt, not borrow more money.


On Sep 04 05:54 AM User 480228 wrote:

> Mr. President why are the banking,and loan company not making loans
> as you promised they would do for the american people we are all
> hurting and not getting any help. Time for them to answer to you
> for not helping us the little people that keep them in business,
> maybe we should boycott their business. Check www.obamamortgagerelie.../.

Why Doesn't the Media Take a Truly Independent, Unbiased Look at the Big Banks in the U.S.?

Excellent analysis Graham. At the university Journalism is a "mickey mouse" major. The absolute minimum in courses that require quantitative reasoning.

Debt and Class Inequality

I have the deep seated opinion that debt increase correlates with the dumbing down of public education.

Misunderstanding the Fed Balance Sheet Could Be a Costly Mistake

Writer Miller does not address the problem of government needing to either cut spending and/or raise taxes to support the debt laden dollar.

If government does not have the fortitude to take these measures, the debt will eventually be monitized, because there are limits to the amounts of treasurys foreigners will buy.

Dollar's Break-Out a Red Flag: Not Backed by Global Markets

It is my understanding the government understated inflation inorder to make the 2nd Qtr GDP data look better.

Social Insurance and Its Effect on the Severity of Recessions

Now the economy is faced with economic drag caused by "social insurance" draining capital from spending on the productive private sector of the economy. That is what social insurance does best.

The Fed Should Keep Up with Its Expansionary Policy

There appears to be a developing reluctance to buy our treasurys. If that developes further, the Fed has the option of defending $US by raising interest rates, which would restrain the economy, or monetizing debt with inflated dollars. The Jimmy Carter solution was the latter, and was called stagflation. Paul Volker put on the brakes in 1978 with a 21% Prime Lending Rate. And the economy ground to a near halt.

The New Reality for Higher Education

There are so many "mickey mouse" areas of study at the university that prospective students must carefully choose a major to develop marketplace skills. Nearly all of the recent college graduates I know have "mickey mouse" degrees and none of them have jobs. One, an accounting major, has a job.

The Death of Media Stocks Is Greatly Exaggerated - Barron's

You nailed it fireball. We are surrounded by the dumbing down of education that began almost 50 yrs ago. Most recent college graduates are capable of little more than making coffee at Starbucks.

Weekly Claims Still Point to a Bottom

We will know the recession is over after the Obama tax increses are factored in and there are permanent increses in employment.employment. Under these circumstances , I believe permanent employment increases are a pie dream and a more likely outcome is trickle up poverty.