Tech

Cowen Advises: Place Your Mobile Internet Bets On Google, Not Apple

How can somebody pretend to be an analyst and write false assumptions ?

"If the U.S. is about 60% of the world market"

since he talk about google, If he would have just typed:
"wealthy world population"
he could have had a look to this page
www.wider.unu.edu/rese...

and understand that the 60% he is talking about just come out of his mind fantasy !

the total number of new mobiles sold (or rented) each year has passed the Billion mark !
(it is why Apple has choosen a 1 % target of 10M ! )

following his maths, 60% would mean 600M mobiles per year.
to simplify if we take the total population of USA (around 300 millions) this would mean 2 mobile per each american each year? I doubt it !
and it is even worse if you take into account the Age, the 15 to 65 years old likely buyers represent around 200M people, this would mean 3 phones each /year ? without talking about wealth to support not only the buying cost but also the phone bill! wich again reduce the potential.

but 10 million mid or end 2008 worldwide is certainly doable!
the discussion on profits per sales is far more complex than a rule of three (specially when parameters are wrong;o)