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  • Leading Economic Index Points to Ongoing Growth [View article]
    Compare the LEI series above with the recent Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the recent Philly Fed Mfg survey. It looks like the two Fed data series are telling a very different story than the LEI. Any insights as to why, would be appreciated.
    Jun 18 09:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Clear Capital: The Housing Double Dip Is Now Official [View article]
    @ PaulTD:

    Wrong direction & wrong orifice....
    May 6 03:23 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not a Happy Day for Silver [View article]
    Has the US debt of trillions of dollars suddenly disappeared?
    Has Congress shown the slightest inclination to act in a fiscally responsible manner?


    Then Au & Ag will always remain in demand.
    May 6 08:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Food Stamp Usage Up 11.6% [View article]
    "The budget recently passed in the House makes major cuts to the food stamp program, but does not touch agricultural subsidies, which mostly go to corporations and very large farm operations."

    Do both or do neither, but to cut the subsidy to individuals and *not* to corporations is insane and perverse.
    May 4 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • March Factory Orders Jumped 3% [View article]
    Thinking out loud, I wonder what portion of this is due to the steady decline of the USD?

    It was around 81 at end of Nov 2010 and now sits at 73 and threatening to go much lower.
    May 3 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • End of QE2 Setting the Climate for Substantial Downside in Asset Prices [View article]
    This is beyond my skill, but it'd be neat to see a graph comparing:

    - Fed purchases
    - CRB index
    - SPX
    - U3 (or U6)
    - profitability index of some kind
    - productivity index of some kind
    - $USD

    Apr 26 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Bullish Correlations [View article]
    Fun with Charts & Graphs (part 34):

    When looking at a graph such as the third one, new readers to SA should bear in mind you can make a case for just about any correlation based on how you present the data. For example, the QE (left-hand) scale ranges from 20 to 140. What if it was adjusted to range from 40 to 180 or 200 (conversely, what if the S&P graph ended at 1400 rather than 1600)? What would the correlation look like then?

    If the left-hand scale were extended to 200, you can easily see the current 'gap' between the final QE data point and the final S&P data point would be almost non-existent. The way the left-hand scale is presented now, allows Credit Suisse to influence readers into thinking the S&P *must* rise to cover the gap--when in fact, that may not be the case at all.

    When you see these types of graphs, ask yourself: who's the author of the graph and do they have an agenda which they're subtly pushing in the way they present the data? I'm surprised Mr Roche didn't point this out--in his always excellent columns, he's usually good at mentioning caveats such as this.
    Apr 16 10:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's a perennial question, but especially in the middle of a rally: Are stocks overvalued? Two heavweights square off - Merrill Lynch's David Bianco (too cheap) vs. Yale's Robert Shiller (too dear).  [View news story]
    Which models do you use to guide your investment decisions?
    Apr 9 12:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Bull Market Running Out of Breath? [View article]
    Prescient call this morning. Kudos.

    Is this the 'pause that refreshes' or the start of another big leg down?
    Apr 8 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Crooks to Benefit from Government Shutdown [View article]
    Excellent idea!
    Apr 8 01:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8:30 Could Get a Whole Lot Quieter Next Week [View article]
    Why is the bulk of this stuff released at 830a? Why not release it after the market is open and everyone has a chance to act upon it at the same time? I have my suspicions as to why this is, but I'd be interested in hearing what others think.
    Apr 8 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Inevitable Downturn of Expanding Earnings May Not Be Pretty [View article]
    Excellent piece, Doug.
    Apr 8 07:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recovery Watch: Rail, Temp Help, Air Traffic All Up [View article]
    You do your readers a disservice by not also providing additional relevant details. For example, from the AAR press release we see that the 2010 comparison week was shortened due to the Good Friday holiday. It would be surprising if carload traffic wasn't higher this year:

    "AAR Reports Record Gains in Weekly Carload Traffic
    2010 Comparison Week Includes Good Friday Holiday

    WASHINGTON, D.C. – April 7, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported record gains in rail traffic for the week ending April 2, 2011, with U.S. railroads originating 305,905 carloads, up 5.7 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week was also up 19.4 percent compared with the same week last year, totaling 234,308 trailers and containers. This week's carload total is the highest since late 2008."

    Also, from the IATA press release we see YoY comparisons look strong, but MoM comparisons paint a slightly different picture:

    "Geneva - The International Air Transport Association ( today announced scheduled international traffic for February 2011 showing increases of 6.0% and 2.3% respectively for passenger and cargo demand compared to February 2010.

    February demand growth was down significantly from the revised 8.4% and 8.7% expansion recorded in January for passenger and cargo traffic respectively. The political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa during February is estimated to have cut international traffic by about 1%. As such it is responsible almost entirely for the slippage in passenger demand growth.

    "In addition to the political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, the more dramatic fall in cargo growth (from 8.7% in January 2011 to 2.3% in February) was impacted in part by factory shutdowns due to the Chinese New Year period which fell in the first part of February in 2011.

    “Another series of shocks is denting the industry’s recovery from the recession. As the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia spreads across the Middle East and North Africa, demand growth across the region is taking a step back. The tragic earthquake and its aftermath in Japan will most certainly see a further dampening of demand from March. The industry fundamentals are good. But extraordinary circumstances have made the first quarter of 2011 very difficult,” said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

    Finally, why confine your data comparisons to only Washington DC airports? Or, at least provide a rationale for doing so--readers might be inclined to think you're cherry-picking your data points.

    Both rail and air traffic appear to be getting better, but the picture isn't as rosy as your bullet points lead the reader to believe.
    Apr 8 07:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon (AMZN) is named the "most reputable company" in the U.S., according to a list based on a study that measures consumer trust, admiration and warm fuzzy feelings toward the largest 150 U.S. companies based on revenue. Rounding out the top 10: KFT, JNJ, MMM, K, UPS, FDX, SLE, GOOG, DIS. (full list)  [View news story]
    There is a notable dearth of financial services companies / banks in the Top 50....Anyone surprised?
    Apr 7 02:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Bull Market Running Out of Breath? [View article]
    I say it as a preemptive response to certain uber-bulls who feel anyone saying the market is over-valued must "hate America and must be rooting for its demise."

    The feeling that equity markets are overinflated (in no small part due to the Fed's liquidity and speculators' gambling) can comfortably reside next to my feelings of loyalty to and love for my country.
    Apr 7 12:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment